Is The Indians Outfield A Mistake In The Jake?

Who has the ugliest looking projected outfield for 2019? If you said the crew patrolling the outfield in the park formerly known as Jacobs Field, you might not be wrong. The Indians team that made the playoffs last year did it on starting pitching and an incredible left side of the infield, but that outfield – wow. With the departure of Michael Brantley the question is do the Indians have any outfielders who would start for the Yankees, or Red Sox, or Rays, or A’s, or… You get the idea. Just who will the Indians run out there and what the heck is the plan for the team most likely of all the teams in baseball to win their division?

Projections are usually pretty bleak for players with little or no experience in the majors. It makes sense when you think about how many talented prospects fall flat when they have to face the competition at the highest level. Looking at ZiPS projections for the Indians 2019 outfield, Leonys Martin is the only starter projected to have a WAR above 1.0.  Martin has multiple seasons above 2.0 but he is coming off an interrupted year where he came close to dying from an infection. Martin’s value lies mostly in his glove and he has had only one season with a wRC+ above 100 (103 in 353 plate appearances in 2018) with a career rate of 83. Now 31, Martin’s defense is unlikely to get better so his bat has to be at least close to league average for him to have enough value to start. He has nearly 50 career DRS in center field so his defense is elite if he is back to where he was before he became so seriously ill. Most humans with any kind of heart are pulling for him to play a full season and pick up where he left off.

Martin is probably the only outfielder who is a sure bet to get more than 500 plate appearances. Jake Bauers will likely end up at first base or in left if Hanley Ramirez – yes, that Hanley Ramirez – gets the nod at first base. Bauers has some things to like – decent power, the ability to take a walk, and youth. In 2018 his power was on display with 11 homers and 35 extra base hits in 388 plate appearances for the Rays. Bauers also walked a lot but his strikeout rate was untenable – 54 walks to 108 K’s. He had never flashed a K rate above 20 until 2018 so his 27% rate was probably a shocker to his 24 followers out there. The Indians could really use a guy who can get on base 35% of the time with some power so Bauers should get a chance at 500 plate appearances unless he starts out fanning left and right. He has some speed so if he gets moved to a corner outfield spot he should be decent, although he is a better first baseman at this point in his career. In their fiscal austerity season it would make sense to try to push Bauers to a more challenging part of the defensive spectrum to increase his value until he shows that he can’t do it. He has minor league experience at the outfield corners so it isn’t like they are trying to convert him in the majors.

Bradley Zimmer was an exciting prospect with tons of speed, projectable power, and the shiny veneer that coats all athletic prospects. But Zimmer is 26 now and hasn’t established himself as a major league regular (a slash line of .237/.300/.370 in 446 major league plate appearances). Unlike other top prospects, Zimmer didn’t exactly dominate the minors – his career slash line there is .268/.370/.449. He has shown the ability to get on base via the walk, but just looking at his minor league slash line might make you wonder about his hit tool. Scouts don’t particularly like his hit tool so they are in agreement with what his stats say – Fangraphs has his hit tool at a 30 with the potential to be a 40 on an 80 scale. He looks like he is ready to be a good defensive center fielder right now except that he had shoulder surgery last season and might not be fully ready by opening day (although he finally played a spring training game this week). His arm is one of his better tools so we will have to see if his shoulder is back up to speed when he comes back. With his quality glove, if Zimmer can replicate his minor league slash line in the majors then the Indians have a starting outfielder. But if Zimmer can’t get on base enough to use his speed and he doesn’t start turning his raw power into game power then he will be a 4th outfielder, which would be a huge disappointment for the Indians.

So if Zimmer isn’t the guy or Ramirez doesn’t push Bauers to the outfield then who will the Indians run out there to shag fly balls? There are three youngish guys vying for playing time in the outfield – Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, and Greg Allen – and one not quite as young guy in 28 year old Tyler Naquin. Naquin has had one partial season, his rookie season of 2016, where he looked like a quality starting outfielder, albeit one aided by an unsustainable .411 BABIP. Naquin slashed .296/.372/.514 in 365 plate appearances but then all but dissolved in 2017, in part due to injuries. In 2018 he was nowhere near that 2016 guy – more injuries and ineffectiveness –  and at 28 looks like a one-season wonder. Defensive metrics don’t like him in center but show him to be a good corner outfielder, so his bat needs to get close to his 2016 numbers for him to start. This is likely his last chance to claim a starting job or even claim substantial playing time.

Jordan Luplow drew walks, showed good power, and demonstrated the ability to hit lefties and righties in the minors. So far he has only managed 190 plate appearances in the majors and hasn’t really shown the ability to do anything at the plate. That isn’t much time really, and Luplow should get a chance to show what he can do in an outfield where all the options have holes in their game. The offensive bar is a bit higher for him because he is most likely limited to a corner spot, but realistically center is covered anyway between Martin and Zimmer. At 25, Luplow needs to show what he can do pretty soon before he gets caught and passed by some shinier, newer prospect.

Naquin and Luplow have not made the most of their opportunities this spring but two of the youngsters on the list have – Oscar Mercado has crushed the ball as has Greg Allen. Mercado is younger and is a skilled center fielder, but he has no major league experience, whereas Allen has 300 plate appearances in the Cleveland with mixed results. Both men can fly and Allen showed that he could steal bases at a high success rate in the majors last season (21 out of 25). Allen has shown the ability to get on base in the minors but that hasn’t translated to the majors yet. Mercado has hit for average and shown some game power in his last two minor league stops but hasn’t even tasted major league gatorade yet. Both men play center field, and are reported to both be good defenders, but Allen’s numbers in his time patrolling center in the majors weren’t good. So what to do?

The Indians could gamble and keep both Mercado and Allen since Allen hits lefties better and Mercado, who is a righty, has hit right-handers better the last couple of seasons. The advantage to keeping Mercado and Allen is that there is some upside there and they both give you speed and likely good defense with the ability to play center. Naquin is more of a known quantity and he is a corner guy so that limits him. Since Bauers can play first base then you could hang onto Luplow also since he still appears to have some upside and has the best power potential of any of the players in the outfield mix. That would mean passing on Hanley Ramirez which is probably the right thing to do anyway. If Zimmer starts the season in extended spring training or on the DL and Martin is the starter in center, then you could have an excellent defensive outfield and just hope that SOMEONE hits their weight. A platoon between Mercado and Allen in one corner and either Luplow or Bauers in the other depending on the situation with Hanley would at least give fans some reason for hope. It could work. If you are going to run out a bunch of question marks then it makes sense to support your strength – starting pitching – by making sure you put together a good defensive mix behind them as often as possible. If the Indians can get even middle of the pack production out of their outfield then they should be able to hold off the Twins. Maybe the Indians outfield isn’t as ugly as it looks?

Take a Stroll Down Cardinals Way

The Cardinals Way is synonymous with winning, or at least sustained competitiveness, and the Cards took a step in that direction for 2019 when they traded for one season of Paul Goldschmidt (pending a possible contract extension). While that was the biggest move St. Louis made this off-season it wasn’t the only move. For some, change is strange and frightening, but for Cardinal Faithful change was much needed after three consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance (which is not the Cardinal way). But are the Cardinals better for 2019 and/or better for the post-2019 future? They certainly made a move that will help their offense, but did they do enough to improve their pitching?

There is no way Jose Martinez is happy about the Cardinals’ off-season. He went from finally winning and earning a full-time job on a major league team (dude is 30) and experiencing his first full season in the majors as a starter, to having really no place to go. Jose does one thing – he hits the ball and hits is hard (so maybe that’s two things). He may do other things well, like playing guitar, gardening, or recycling, but his baseball skills are all about the bat. His “best” position on the field is first base and he put together a -5 DRS last season. Martinez also played outfield a little, but that didn’t go well either, costing the Cards -6 DRS in much less time. The eye test is wildly in agreement with the stats as Martinez is considered to be a really bad fielder. When you hit as well as Martinez does (a 130 wRC+ through his first 915 MLB plate appearances) you deserve to play in the majors, although in his case, the AL would be a better fit where he could be a DH and emergency fielder (with a first baseman’s glove stored in a glass case with a hammer hanging next to it). If you have been hiding in a cave in the desert you may not know that St. Louis has a baseball team and said team – the Cardinals, not the Browns – traded for Paul Goldschmidt during the off-season. Mr Goldschmidt has a pretty nifty trophy collection that includes four Silver Slugger trophies for the best hitting first baseman in the NL as well as three Gold Gloves. Goldschmidt’s collection of hardware indicates that Jose Martinez will not be seeing much time at first base. Ok, but surely Jose of the Bat must play somewhere so that he is allowed to hit, yes? Well that is a two part question. If we are talking about him playing in the field in 2019, it is going to be mostly in a corner outfield spot, which, as we have established would be a mistake of Hanley Ramirez proportions. If we are talking about the future, well, there has been talk about the National League adopting the DH (cough – abomination – cough) so maybe the Cardinals think that is going to happen for the start of the 2020 season, and since Martinez got a late start on his service time, he won’t be a free agent until 2023. The Cardinals can afford to keep his bat around in hopes that they will have their DH ready to roll when that happens. He will need playing time to keep his batting skills sharp, so that means some time in the outfield, some time at first base, regular work as a pinch hitter, and time as a DH during inter-league play – maybe 400 at bats depending on how often the Cardinals are willing to sacrifice team defense a bit. To answer our guiding question here – yes – first base will be improved although mostly on defense and on the base paths. Goldschmidt is an upgrade over Martinez but not as big an upgrade as he would have been with, say, the Rockies. In addition to making it harder to get Jose Martinez and his thunderous bat into the lineup, there are other consequences to Goldschmidt’s insertion into the everyday lineup.

Matt Carpenter can still hit. I know it didn’t look like it in the first month of 2018 where his slash line was .155/.305/.274, but Carpenter finished the season with his best power numbers (36 home runs) and right in line with his total offensive output (wRC+ of 138). He finished 9th in MVP voting for his offensive exploits and is a mainstay of the Cardinals at the age of 33. Carpenter has been positionally flexible throughout his career, although first base seems to be the best fit for him at this point, even though he was mostly the starting third baseman in 2018. The defensive metrics have had a mixed view of him at 3rd where last year he had a DRS of 6 but a UZR/150 of -2.5, but overall his career metrics are a DRS of -2 and a UZR/150 of -3.8. He isn’t great but he doesn’t kill the team with his glove. That said, he is, as mentioned above, 33, so it is hard to see him maintaining his current level of ability in the field for much longer. Moving Carpenter to first has been a talking point for a couple seasons, but that is not an option for 2019 as everyone and their brother will be competing for the table scraps of playing time available when Goldy needs a breather, or God forbid, gets hurt. So the “fallout” from acquiring Goldy is that Carpenter sticks at 3rd base. That likely would have happened anyway because at the moment no one in the Cards organization is knocking down the door to be the 3rd baseman of the future, but it does block players of value on the roster from playing time. Jedd Gyorko isn’t a youngster but he is the best third baseman on the team and is a decent offensive piece with a wRC+ last year of 110 in line with his last two seasons of 112 and 112 (again). He isn’t a star, but he is good enough to start at 3rd for several teams and now it is unclear where he will find playing time. Gyorko is 3 years younger than Carpenter and has an option year in 2020. He also has some positional flexibility, so he will be a good bench piece for the Cardinals.

Yairo Munoz is a young 3rd baseman – just turned 24 – who has some power and gets on base. In his first taste of the majors he managed a wRC+ of 106 in 329 plate appearances. His defensive work at 3rd wasn’t pretty but most of his time in the minors was spent at shortstop so it’s possible that he could learn the position with enough reps at the hot corner. Like Gyorko, he has the ability to play multiple positions including 2nd, short, and the outfield at various levels of skill (the metrics hated him equally everywhere), but his playing time is likely to be limited in the majors in 2019 since Gyorko covers most of the spots he plays as the reserve. He has a great arm, so it makes sense to eventually give him a shot at 3rd base since Paul DeJong is locked in at shortstop and Kolten Wong is the starter at 2nd. DeJong and Wong are both excellent defenders. Between them they put up 33 DRS in the middle of the Cardinals infield last season. The pair has some warts at the plate but in a somewhat down season for both of them they still managed to be right around 100 wRC+. Munoz could turn into a starting 3rd baseman someday although that day won’t be in 2019 with the Cardinals since Carpenter needs to be in the lineup everyday and he will occupy 3rd base, since Goldschmidt is blocking him from playing 1st base. It is more likely now that Munoz will spend the season at triple-A or turn into a second option at the multi-tool reserve spot getting limited playing time at second, short, and third. Nobody is saying that having Paul Goldschmidt on your team is going to hurt the club, but when you make a trade you need to look at the whole picture including what it does to other players on the team. The Cardinals traded to fill a position that didn’t need filling and so diminished the return by burying valuable parts like Munoz and Gyorko, and locking themselves in positionally. Be excited that you have Goldschmidt but understand that this wasn’t a 6 win gain you just made.

Moving beyond the Goldy implications, the other big move the Cardinals made was the signing of Andrew Miller, probably the most famous middle reliever in baseball based on his postseason performance from 2016. Miller had a mediocre 2018 if you compare him to, uh, Andrew Miller. He still fanned just short of 12 batters per 9, but all his other numbers went south quite a bit including his walk rate which jumped to 4.2 per 9, up dramatically from his 2014 through 2017 rates. Miller suffered through a knee injury and a shoulder impingement so if he is healthy he could return to form, although “if he’s healthy” combined with his age – 34 for most of the 2019 season – should have Cardinals management and fans alike feeling the jibblies at least a bit. The Cardinals have had horrible luck with their free agent relief pitcher signings of late, including Greg Holland’s nightmare of 2018, and the injury-fest that describes the Brett Cecil/Luke Gregerson signings. There are some exciting young pieces in the Cardinals pen, like Jordan Hicks, who at 22 throws his fastball at over 100 MPH. Last season was his first above single-A and it showed, as he walked way too many batters and wasn’t really effective or particularly useful. Ryan Helsley might also see time in the Cardinals pen if he is healthy and the Cards aren’t above using him in the pen instead of continuing to develop him as a starter at triple-A. Dakota Hudson is another hard throwing young reliever who hasn’t put it all together in the majors yet – he walked close to 6 per 9 innings in his debut in 2018, but that probably doesn’t reflect his actual ability if you believe his 2017 and 2018 triple-A numbers where the rate was closer to 3-3.5. If Miller takes on most of the high leverage spots out of the pen, it might actually help the young flamethrowers develop without the pressure of closing or setting up. Unlike the Goldschmidt situation where quality players are being blocked or being forced out of their regular positions, the bullpen needed rescuing so the signing of Miller is likely to help the team now, and from a developmental standpoint.

One thing you may have noticed already is that the Cardinals have aged through these two transactions. Goldschmidt is 31 and Miller is 34. At the major league level the Cardinals look like they are in “win now” mode if you just look at those two moves.  The Goldschmidt deal cost them three young players; Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver both have major league experience and are talented but flawed, at least in the sense that neither has become established yet, and Andy Young just completed his first partial season at double-A and at 24, will likely start the year at triple-A Reno. If you just looked at this deal, it would look like the Cardinals are pushing in a lot of their chips to try to win one more time before rebuilding. But if you look at their moves from the previous season you get a slightly different picture.

The Cardinals made three fairly quiet trades last season to restock the lower and middle ranks of their minor league system. They sent Oscar Mercado to Cleveland for Carter Capel and Jhon Torres. They sent Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay for Justin Williams, Genesis Cabrera, and Roel Ramirez, and moved Sam Tuivailala to Seattle for Seth Elledge. Only two of the players they acquired have even reached triple-A, so the moves were made with the future in mind as the Cardinals traded from a depth of outfielders as well as selling off a reliever who had some value, but who the Cardinals felt was expendable moving forward. Torres and Cabrera are now top 10 prospects for the Cardinals. The major league team is older than it was before their off-season moves but the organization set themselves up for the future in the previous off-season so that they could go for it this season without giving up on their future. It was some good planning for sustained success, which is very much the Cardinals way.

St. Louis has maintained their youth up the middle with DeJong, Wong, and Bader, with Molina holding down the catching position while Andrew Knizner prepares to take over for him. They have some youth on the horizon at 3rd base (Eli Montero and Nolan Gorman are both top 5 prospects for the Cards and top 100 prospects in all of baseball, but still a few seasons away). They have a young player in his prime to play right field in Marcell Ozuna, and an even younger player in Tyler O’Neill in another corner outfield spot who has yet to fully establish himself as a starter, although he slugged 9 homers in his 130 at bat MLB debut. So their position players are all over the spectrum in terms of age and are at various stages of their careers, although their biggest stars are on the wrong side of 30 in Molina, Carpenter, and Goldschmidt so they need someone to take the mantle moving forward – someone like Ozuna or one of the young outfielders. You don’t want your team to age all at the same time – see the Giants of San Francisco – if you intend to contend for a long period of time, so the Cardinals are on the right track here with their position players.

An area where the Cardinals made no moves this off-season is the starting rotation. Adam Wainwright, their former ace, is 37 and has battled injuries and ineffectiveness for a few seasons now. 27 year old Carlos Martinez looked like he might be ready to take over the top rotation spot from Wainwright after three strong seasons in a row (2015-2017), but is now battling injuries of his own. Michael Wacha, who seems like he has been a Cardinal since the Gas House Gang days, is only 27 but he isn’t an ace and is unlikely to turn into one, again in part due to injuries. Alex Reyes was the anointed one who was to be the future ace of the Cardinals but back-to-back arm injuries have clouded the crystal ball for him. Miles Mikolas returned from Japan to throw 200 innings for the Cards with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.07, but Mikolas is 30 so while he was excellent, and an absolute epiphany last season, he probably isn’t going to get better moving forward and he has now had exactly one good season in the majors. If he even repeats his 2018 season the Cardinals will be over the moon, but you would be overly optimistic to count on him to be your ace moving forward. Which leaves us with Jack Flaherty. Flaherty debuted last season as a 22 year old and looked a lot like a future ace, posting an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.11 while striking out almost 11 batters per 9. He is the future, and hugely important for the Cardinals pitching staff, even if Miles Mikolas was better last year. St. Louis has a few young arms who still have some development time, but none of them are likely to be aces. John Gant, who was in the rotation last season, has a ceiling of a 3 or a 4, with the usual control caveat. So there are pieces to like already in the rotation but most of the reinforcements are a ways away. Unlike the position players, a key injury or two would throw the rotation into complete disarray because there is little to no depth. Only two of their top 10 prospects are likely to be starting pitchers and one of them (Ryan Helsley) is coming off an arm injury, so likely will be in the pen if he is with the Big Club. The other one – Genesis Cabrera – will probably start the season at triple-A Memphis after not dominating double-A so there is some work there before he is ready to help. There are some starters deeper in the system but nobody who has poked his head up out of the quagmire of uncertainty, so starting pitching is likely to be the Achilles heel of the organization unless they make more moves to shore it up for the present as well as the future.

In terms of their future, the Cardinals, like many teams, will need to work pretty hard to piece together a rotation, probably involving trades and free agency. Their current position players and organizational depth are enough to contend right now and moving forward, but the pitching is going to have to rely heavily on hurlers who have a poor track record of health or who are well past their prime. The future is reasonably bright for the Cardinals but its not without some dark clouds on the horizon. It is exciting to have a guy like Paul Goldschmidt in the fold, even if he is a free agent in a year, but the Cardinals may have to spend their resources on starting pitchers sooner rather than later.

 

The D-backs Leave the Goldy-locks Zone

After shipping their best player to the Cardinals, do the Diamondbacks, who were in the NL West race for most of 2018, have a defining strength like great starting pitching or a terrifying offense? And moving forward, should the team work to shore up their weaknesses this season when they aren’t expected to seriously contend or should they double down on their area of greatest strength in an attempt to get the most out of what they have?  Let’s examine what the Diamondbacks were actually good at last year and whether we can expect that to change.

4th in the league in Defensive Efficiency – what does that even mean? The simple version is that the Diamondbacks were really good at turning batted balls into outs. “DE” is a nice measure of team defense although like most defensive stats, it isn’t perfect. Still, it is good to see a measure that matches the widely held perception that the Diamondbacks were good at defense for the last few seasons and for the purpose of our discussion, in 2018. Understanding how the Diamondbacks became one of the best defensive teams in baseball matters when you are trying to decide if they are likely to be that again in 2019.

Nick Ahmed was a big piece of the defensive puzzle as the Diamondbacks primary shortstop in 2018 and has been considered somewhat of a defensive whiz in his time in the majors. Ahmed hit 16 homers last year which was a bit of a surprise considering he had never reached double figures in long balls in his professional career. Run production isn’t really what Ahmed does. Even last year when his wRC+ was 84 (a career high), he was well below league average as a hitter. The main problem is that he doesn’t get on base enough (.290 OBP playing his home games in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball), so while the homers are cool and everything, even in his best season by far he hurt the team with his bat. To be clear, Ahmed is there for his excellent glove work. 5.5 UZR/150 and 21 DRS are both really good defensive numbers that support his 11 dWAR – Defensive Wins above Replacement. On balance, Ahmed ended up producing 1.7 WAR which is a bit below what you want from your starter, but fine for a placeholder. He will be back in the same spot unless he gets off to a really rough start with the bat and the Diamondbacks get tired of all the outs and give up on Ahmed.

Paul Goldschmidt is obviously a great hitter averaging 144 wRC+ for his career. But Goldschmidt is not a one trick pony – he is a great baserunner and a really good first baseman with three Gold Glove awards in his last six seasons. dWAR for first basemen is tough because the positional adjustment is extremely steep costing them around 12 runs. You can go look at how dWAR is calculated on Fangraphs.com, but let’s use DRS and UZR/150 to look at Goldy’s glove work. So far, Goldschmidt has saved 50 runs (DRS) and 1.5 runs (UZR/150) as the two measures disagree about how good he is at first base. It is safe to say that Goldschmidt is at worst a good defensive first baseman and possibly more. Losing him is devastating to the offense and at least bad for the team defense. We will circle back to his replacement and what he will bring to the team.

The Diamondbacks second baseman for most of 2018 was Ketel Marte, a converted shortstop who contributed 104 wRC+ with the bat in 2018 as a 24 year old and had a 7 DRS season (1 UZR/150) at second with additional contributions at shortstop. He was a good middle infielder and a particularly good second baseman if not quite at Gold Glove quality. Interestingly, the Diamondbacks have announced that Marte will be their center fielder next year because they couldn’t find anyone else good enough to play the position in their organization and they thought he would be able to make the conversion. Marte is an excellent athlete so he may very well be able to make the conversion and turn into an above average center fielder, but there is certainly a risk. You are essentially letting go of a quality second baseman in exchange for a center fielder who will be learning on the job. It comes down to who the replacement will be at second, as well as how quickly Marte can learn the intricacies of his new position. There is likely to be a drop off in production at both spots at least for part of the season and that will hurt the defense.

The reason Arizona needs a center fielder is because A.J. Pollock, their primary center fielder for the last seven seasons, left via free agency this off-season. Pollock has averaged 113 wRC+ for his career and contributed 50 DRS and 5.9 UZR/150 as a center fielder. The new LA Dodger leaves the D-Backs with “only” one Gold Glove to his credit, in part because of his injury history that has placed him on the DL, costing him a lot of playing time in his career. Still, Pollock’s loss will be felt on offense and defense.

The replacement for Ketel Marte at second base is almost certain to be newly acquired Wilmer Flores. Flores is 27 and has been with the Mets his whole career. He was primarily a shortstop for the Metropolitans, but has played first, second, and third as well. Defensive metrics are a bit conflicted about Flores as a second baseman with DRS seeing him costing the Mets 9 runs over his career and UZR/150 at a more optimistic positive contribution of 1.5 runs. Flores is more loved for his bat than his glove with a career wRC+ of 99 and a career dWAR of -0.3. He will probably benefit from playing everyday, and from playing the same position everyday, so if he can at least be a push defensively at second and a 100 or so wRC+ guy, then that’s not a disaster for the Diamondbacks even if it degrades their defense slightly (which is likely).

Third base was the domain of Jake Lamb since his debut in 2014. Lamb is only 27 and was an All Star in 2017 and has two seasons of 29 and 30 home runs (2016 and 2017 respectively), but lost his job to Eduardo Escobar as Lamb struggled through a horrible season at the plate. His wRC+ of 78 was only slightly offset by his DRS of 5 and his UZR/150 of 3.6. Lamb has never put up good numbers with the glove so if this improvement on defense is real, it might help him resurrect his career as a starting third baseman although maybe not with Arizona as the Diamondbacks have extended late season acquisition Eduardo Escobar through the 2021 season. It is an interesting move in that Escobar is 30 and has only breached 100 wRC+ once in the last three season (2018 where he put up 117 wRC+). Escobar has played literally everywhere including pitching and catching, but has primarily been a shortstop and third baseman. He is solid defensively on the infield and should be a touch better at third than Lamb, unless you see Lamb’s defensive development last season as real improvement. The Diamondbacks might choose to make Lamb the regular at third and use Escobar everywhere in an attempt to rehabilitate Lamb’s profile so they could trade him. They could also keep Lamb as the starter at third and capitalize on Escobar’s versatility, unless there is something we don’t know about Lamb and they don’t think he can return to his previously level or ever get to where they thought he would before last season’s debacle. Either way, it doesn’t appear that there will be much of a change defensively at third base over what they saw in 2018.

If the Diamondbacks make Lamb the regular first baseman then there will almost certainly be a drop off at the position from Goldschmidt. Lamb has played a total of 9 games at first base as a professional and while he will likely be able to make the conversion, even the best case scenario doesn’t have him turning into an elite defender like Goldy in 2019. Arizona has a few other internal options to play first if Lamb struggles or they move him back to third. Christian Walker had a huge 2017 at triple-A and a pretty good 2018 back in the same spot, but has been largely blocked at the major league level and is now 27 with 99 career plate appearances in the Bigs. Walker isn’t a hidden star, but based on his ability to hit home runs and take walks, he could contribute to the lineup given regular playing time. In his limited time in the majors he has put up ugly defensive numbers but the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions about his defensive ability at first base. His minor league numbers show him to be able to play first base cleanly at least. Kevin Cron’s offensive profile looks similar to Walker’s, but he is two years younger and has more power but walks less often. Cron hasn’t tasted major league food yet so the same caveats about minor league defensive numbers apply. Cron is a better prospect than Walker and deserves a chance to show what he can do with major league pitching. He probably won’t be a star but he could be a decent late middle of the order bat, but won’t get a chance if Escobar is at third and Lamb at first. The bottom line at first base is that there will almost certainly be a defensive decline no matter who they use there and there will definitely be a huge decline in offensive production.

One of the returns for Goldschmidt was catcher, Carson Kelly. Kelly has been the understudy to Yadier Molina for a couple seasons now and has put up good pitch framing numbers in his limited playing time. Jeff Mathis is gone after putting up 87 DRS at catcher for his career including 17 last year. Unfortunately, Mathis hit like a wet piece of paper with a career wRC+ of 50 – ack! Alex Avila, who split time with Mathis last year, is a bat first catcher with poor framing numbers but good power. Avila will probably see the light end of a platoon and some time at first base. The defense won’t be as good at the catcher’s spot but the offense should improve significantly with Kelly taking Mathis’ spot.

We have already looked at center field, which will likely see a drop off from Pollock’s defense to Marte’s at least at first, but what about the corner outfield spots? David Peralta will return in left after a huge comeback season here – he put up 3.8 WAR driven mostly by his 130 wRC+ and a career high 30 home runs (his previous high was 17). His defensive numbers show him to be a solid defender with career DRS of 4 in left field and 0.3 UZR/150. His defensive reputation is better than his numbers so he is probably somewhere between excellent and solid. He is 31 so even a slow decline will probably take a little shine off his glove. Still, left field should remain stable from a defensive standpoint.

In the other corner (wearing the snakeskin trunks) is Steven Souza Jr. who is coming off an unmitigated disaster of a 2018 season. Souza Jr. is 29 and was coming off a breakout campaigns with the Rays in 2017 where he hit 30 home runs, contributed 120 wRC+, and saved 7 runs via DRS or 5.4 if you like UZR/150 better. Either way, it looked like he had finally turned into a low batting average/high walk total home run hitter who could play excellent defense in right and probably win all your bar fights for you as he is 6’4/225 and looks like a fast linebacker. Last year he battled multiple arm and back injuries that started in spring training, and struggled to a wRC+ of 84 and saw his defensive numbers drop below zero. If he comes back healthy, then the Diamondbacks should expect a big bump on offense and a slight bump on defense from Souza Jr..

For a team to have one of the best defenses in baseball for multiple seasons takes some intention and a commitment to a philosophy. They have to make a statement with their actions that they will put people in the best positions to succeed defensively and potentially sacrifice some offense to make that happen. With the trade of Goldschmidt, the departure of Pollock and Mathis via free agency, and moving Marte off second base, they are still making a statement – that they no longer believe in fielding the best defense they can. While there are many different ways to win, losing Goldschmidt, Pollock, and Patrick Corbin  (their best starting pitcher last season) makes it look like they are rebuilding. So far this isn’t a typical rebuild where they trade everyone of value for youngsters as they still have Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Peralta, and valuable bullpen arm, Archie Bradley. If they aren’t rebuilding but just resetting somehow then this current state of diminished defense could be temporary as they prepare for their next state whatever that may be. Looking at the lineup as it stands today, less than a week before pitchers and catchers report, it seems that there is almost no way the Diamondbacks are a top five defense in 2019. It isn’t as though they have just shifted ponies and will now be a great offensive team because Pollock and Goldschmidt haven’t been replaced with elite hitters (or really replaced at all). If the Diamondbacks trade some of the aforementioned veterans, then their intentions to rebuild will be clear. If they hold onto them and make some acquisitions to improve at first base or center field then that would seem to indicate that they are just changing direction. Take note during spring training and the first half of the season to see what the Diamondbacks are to become next.

 

The Mets Have All The Second Basemen!

Welcome to an interesting Mets’ off-season where they hired a new GM who was an agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, acquired not one, but two starting second basemen, a starting catcher, a center fielder, and two closers, not to mention some other bullpen parts. That’s the kind of off-season that gets a fan base worked up because the team is doing something instead of standing in place and hoping things will work out. Just because your team does something doesn’t necessarily mean they did the right things to turn them into a playoff team, but the Mets, under Van Wagenen, have definitely done something to change their fortunes for better or worse, especially on the infield. So let’s take a look at the impact of the guys who surround the pitchers on the dirt part of the field.

The catching position once appeared to be a strength for the Mets because they had Travis d’Arnaud back there and homeboy could hit home runs, and maybe more importantly, he could catch and throw. What d’Arnaud appears unable to do is stay healthy.  Only once has he reached 400 plate appearances and that was in 2014 when he stepped into the batter’s box 421 times. in 2018 d’Arnaud made 16 plate appearances in what was a lost season. Now 29, it will be interesting to see what he can do to contribute to the team as the backup catcher to Wilson Ramos, one of the new acquisitions that Van Wagenen signed as a free agent. Ramos is a better version of what d’Arnaud looked like he might be. Ramos is a good hitter – excellent for a catcher – and a decent defensive catcher who posts solid pitch framing numbers and slightly less solid numbers for throwing and pitch blocking. Ramos is possibly the best hitting catcher in the majors not named J.T. Realmuto, and last year bested all the catchers with his wRC+ of 131 – to 126 for Realmuto who did it over 531 plate appearances to Ramos’ 416 PA’s. Ramos has had more surgeries than even d’Arnaud who had TJ surgery last season, so expecting 500 plate appearances out of either of them is foolishness. The hope is that the two of them together can form one relatively healthy catcher. Adding Ramos is a definite upgrade over the other catchers the Mets ran out there in d’Arnaud’s absence. If one of the tandem falters, then Mets’ fans can expect to see a fair amount of someone like Tomas Nido, who has shown some pretty great framing skills and won a batting title in the minors. That said, it is unclear that he will hit enough in the majors to be more than the short defensive end of a catching platoon. For the season to go well for the Mets, they have to hope Ramos and d’Arnaud combine for 600+ plate appearances.

Spring training should determine the starter for the Mets at first. Peter Alonso is 24 and Baseball America just ranked him as the #48 prospect in all the land. He is a big man with huge power who also takes walks, hits for a decent average, and plays poor defense according to reports. Alonso hit 36 homers to go with 76 walks across two levels last season. He struck out 128 times too, but that is a manageable rate if he can continue to draw walks. He seems to be limited to first base and the Mets will deal with his defensive limitations if he hits a bunch of bombs and manages to carry an OBP over .320. His projections expect him to hit 20-25 home runs, bat around .240 with an OBP of .320 or so. That would be a fine rookie season. Anything more than that from Alonso and the Mets are in a good place. Less than that and he likely won’t play if his glove and arm are truly as bad as the scouts say.

J.D. Davis is Peter Alonso-light with the bat. He hits lots of home runs, but not quite as many as Alonso. He gets on base, but doesn’t walk as much as Alonso, and he strikes out more than Alonso. Defensively, Davis is more versatile than Alonso with a huge arm – enough for third base or right field, but without great range or a great glove so you probably don’t want to start him in either spot. Davis has crushed lefties in the minors – OPS north of 1220 in each of his last three stops – so a platoon with Alonso at first might work, although Alonso hits lefties just fine. It is hard to see the Mets carrying both players due to their defensive limitations so again – spring training will tell us a lot about the plan for 2019.

Todd Frazier is a good defensive third baseman but appears to have lost the ability to hit. He can still drive the ball over the fence from time to time – 18 homers in 2018 – but has back-to-back seasons hitting .213. To his credit, Frazier walks a lot so his OBP nudges past .300 every season – but just barely in three of the last four seasons – so he makes a lot of outs. Still, Frazier has been a three to four WAR player in all but two of the last six campaigns. His power does appear to be on the decline accounting for his first sub-two WAR season and his first wRC+ season below 100 since his rookie cup of coffee call up. 2018 was a 1.5 WAR season for Frazier. He is turning 33 before the start of spring training and it looks like his decline might be steep. If he starts, it will likely be at third, although he played a little first base in the majors. If the Mets carry him but don’t start him, then he is likely to see time at third, first, and maybe in the outfield where he hasn’t played since 2013. If he comes out of the gate hitting then the Mets will have a hard time finding spots for all their infielders to play because they have three guys who are second basemen and who will need to play almost everyday because of their bats. One of those three guys could move to first, but realistically the other two need to play either second or third based on their experience. More on that later, but the point is that Frazier could get squeezed out or flat out become a bench bat in 2019, the last year of his contract.

Shortstop is the most settled of the positions, with rookie and former top prospect Amed Rosario set to play everyday. Rosario is well thought of as a defender but didn’t put up good numbers according to DRS or UZR although those same metrics were good in 2017. So we will have to see what Rosario does with the glove in 2019. At this point in his development, his best tool is his speed and in the second half of last season he ran more often and more effectively stealing 18 bags in 24 attempts. He also hit 22 points better in the second half than in the first half, but he just doesn’t walk (4.9%) and he strikes out too much (20.1%) so his speed doesn’t get showcased enough since he isn’t on base often – a .295 OBP. Rosario just turned 23 so there is still likely some growth there and a 1.5 WAR season from a rookie shortstop with tools isn’t a disaster. The anti-Rosario came up last season – Luis Guillorme could step in if Rosario starts off frigid at the plate. Guillorme walks a ton, doesn’t strike out much, has no power to speak of, and is a wizard with the glove. His minor league slash line is .287/.363/.338 so in spite of the on base skills, he will likely transition to versatile glove man in the majors as his projections pessimistically agree on an OPS in the .500s. It will be interesting to see how he develops as he performed well with the bat at Double-A and Triple-A basically rising to the level of the competition. His glove will definitely push Rosario to perform.

Second base is where the logjam resides. Let’s start with the incumbent, Jeff McNeil. McNeil came up about midway through last season and flat out raked – a .329/.381/.471 slap line. He put up 2.7 WAR in half a season based in part on his wRC+ of 137, but also because of his solid work at second base – his primary position with the Mets, and his excellent work on the bases (7 of 8 stealing bases). In the minors, McNeil has been almost exclusively an infielder getting most of his time at second, followed closely by third base, then shortstop a distant third. He has played a total of 8 games in his professional career in the outfield. So it seems logical that he would get more time at second base or maybe third if you found a second baseman you just couldn’t pass up. Reports are that the Mets will try him in the outfield, but we will see what spring training brings. McNeil can hit for average, and found his power stroke in 2018 with 22 homers between double-A, triple-A, and the majors. If his bat is for real, then McNeil needs to be in the lineup everyday. His BABIP was on the high side at .359 but some players have high BABIPs regularly and it isn’t a sign of impending regression. McNeil has carried high BABIPs through most of his career so it will be interesting to see if he is one of those guys, or last season was lucky and he is really a .270 hitter with 10 home run power.

Robinson Cano was acquired this off-season in one of those deals where giant, lumbering contracts are exchanged. The difference with this deal was that the Mets also got a great closer in Edwin Diaz when they took on Cano’s gargantuan contract. This deal is interesting because Cano is coming off a suspension for PEDs in 2018, is 36, and before the suspension was still hitting like a 3-hole hitter. There is a small amount of data now on players’ performance after PED suspension and it doesn’t appear that most of them go in the tank when they are forced to play clean. Is that because the impact of the steroids lingers even after they stop taking them? Do they get better at hiding their transgressions? Were the steroids really helping them that much? Hard to know really, but 36 is 36 and Cano is due for some decline, although decline from perennial All-Star and potential Hall of Fame candidate at least starts out pretty high. His numbers show that he is still a good second baseman even if he isn’t a Gold Glove second baseman anymore. He had his knee scoped in the off-season so he should be at full health in spring training. Not surprisingly, considering that whole multiple Gold Glove thing at second base, Cano has played second base almost exclusively throughout his career getting his first innings at third and first last season. He contributed 4 DRS at second in 2018 despite missing half the season. Moving him to another position in spite of his continued ability to play the position well seems like a mistake and I would imagine he might bristle at the idea although that is hard to know from the outside.

In case you were thinking that two second basemen wasn’t quite enough, the Mets also signed Jed Lowrie from the A’s. Lowrie is coming off his best season in the majors (with 4.9 WAR and a wRC+ of 122) and his best back-to-back seasons in the majors in part because he stayed healthy. Injuries have cost Jed a lot of time in the past and he turns 35 the first month of the season. Last year he looked like an excellent defensive second baseman as he contributed 5.6 wins according to UZR/150. It seems possible that putting him in one position and leaving him there for two seasons has had a positive impact on his defense which intuitively makes sense. So the Mets have signed him and claim that their intention is to move him around the infield like a Ben Zobrist or a Marwyn Gonzalez. That type of player has value, and Lowrie can definitely do it, but is that the best way to get the most out of Jed? He has certainly done that in the past, but his recent experience, coming off the best two season stretch of his career, implies that he does best when he gets to play everyday and play second base, or at least the same position everyday. His numbers certainly don’t paint him as a good third baseman or shortstop and he is no longer in his prime. That is not a knock on Lowrie at all. He was the A’s MVP last year and received some AL MVP votes, but he is a human and as such it makes sense to look at the context in which he has succeeded the most and try to capitalize on that. But the Mets have made their roster bed so let’s see what they can do to maximize the situation that they have created.

McNeil is the youngster in the “I’m a second baseman but we can’t ALL play here” mix and he has a decent amount of experience at third and wheels enough that it seems he could learn to play the outfield, so it seems that if anyone is going to be the super sub it should be him. Since it appears that Jed Lowrie had a lot of success playing one position everyday and has played third in his career, he should be the everyday third baseman. That means Todd Frazier either moves or sits. Ideally Frazier would have a hot spring and the Mets could trade him for something of some value, otherwise they spot start him and hope he shows enough to make him more interesting to another team or a depth piece for the Mets if they are in contention. He still has value, but his age and his downward spiraling batting average will likely scare some teams away. Rosario has star potential, but Guillorme needs to play enough to see if he can hit as it is already clear that he is an excellent defender. Rosario should be the starter but Guillorme, who hits righties better than Rosario (at least last season), should get spot starts against righties, and be a late inning defensive replacement.  Robinson Cano should be the starting second baseman at least until it seems he can’t handle the position. He should probably also bat in the middle of the lineup – probably third – as it appears he is still a three WAR guy or better. That leaves first base to Peter Alonso. The Mets might want to start 2019 with Alonso in the short end of a righty/lefty platoon with Frazier, which would give the rookie time to break in and allow him to hit to his strength. At the same time it would showcase Frazier for a trade. Health will likely have a lot to do with the starting catching decision, although, barring a huge spring from d’Arnaud, Wilson Ramos will likely get the lion’s share of starts. I wonder if d’Arnaud can play second base?

The Mets shouldn’t rule out a couple more deals to either decrease or, God forbid, increase the crowding in the infield. It is never a bad thing to have extra talent sitting around so you can’t feel bad about the depth of the Mets infield, especially when at least three of the infielders are in their 30s. Without getting too deep into the outfield situation, the Mets are pretty set in the corners so it will be tough to find room for one of the infielders to play much out there. Brandon Nimmo, the right fielder, is coming off a 4.5 WAR season and looks like an excellent leadoff hitter. In left, Michael Conforto saw a bit of a drop off from 2017 from a 4.4 War season to a 3.0 WAR season, but is still clearly the starter with some star potential. Yoenis Cespedes is a complete mystery after heel surgery and may or may not even be in the mix this season. If he is healthy then he, Nimmo, and Conforto will split time in the corners with the Nimmo and Conforto spelling Keon Braxton and Juan Lugares who will likely platoon in center. There just doesn’t seem to be a lot of room in the outfield for McNeil or anyone else and I won’t even mention the 4th outfielder contenders. Suffice it to say that Manager Mickey Callaway has his work cut out for him making sure that he maximizes that talent and keeps his roster sharp and rested at the same time. Get ready for an interesting spring training with lots of speculation in the sports pages in New York!

 

Shades Required In San Diego

“Prospects are cool, parades are cooler”, was purportedly coined by MLB’s Casey Stern, and the phrase applies to the Padres perhaps more than any team in baseball. For years now the Padres have been full of potential, but have also been unable to turn that into a playoff appearance since 2005 and 2006 when the NL West was just bad. They won the division with 82 and 88 wins respectively and lost in the LDS both times winning 1 out of 7 games in total. The last time they won 90+ games was in 1998 when they were swept in the World Series by the Yankees. They have a great newish stadium, and a beautiful city, but they also have way more 90 loss seasons than 90 win seasons. What they have right now is a stacked minor league system that has some superstar potential and great depth, so when can we expect the Friars to be relevant again and should they try to accelerate the timeline now?

Right before Christmas of 2014 the new Padres GM, A.J. Preller, signaled clearly that he believed that the Padres should go for it when he traded away Trea Turner, Joe Ross, Jake Bauers, Rene Rivera, and Burch Smith in a 3 team trade that netted them Gerardo Reyes, Ryan Hanigan, Jose Castillo, and Wil Myers – the headliner for the Padres in the trade. It was a bold move and they gave up a lot to get Myers who hasn’t been the star the Padres thought they were getting. For certain the Padres would give up a lot to get Trea Turner back – he was the player to be named later who was shipped to Washington. Turner is already a star in 2018 and had a 4.8 WAR season at age 25, so he is still getting better. Joe Ross also paid dividends quickly for the Nationals, succeeding in the majors at 22 and 23 but struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness each of the last two campaigns. Jake Bauers, also included in the trade, is the kind of guy the Padres normally would be acquiring instead of trading and the Indians just picked him up. He’s put up good walk numbers with some power and speed and not too many strikeouts in the minors. His first taste of the majors in 2018 didn’t go the way anyone wanted, but he is only 23. The trade looks bad for the Padres at this point partly because Turner has quickly turned into a star, while Myers has been disappointing. Myers has been hurt a lot, has been rough on defense and has only produced at just a tick above major league average with the bat. At this point Jose Castillo looks like he might be the real return for the Padres in the trade after his major league debut in 2018 where he put up ridiculous numbers out of San Diego’s pen over 38.33 innings. He is 6’4 with a fastball in the mid-90s and control (12.2 K’s per 9 to 2.8 walks per 9) and he is only 23 – those are closer numbers. Trades can only be fully graded in hindsight, but at this point it looks like Preller really screwed the pooch in this deal.

In addition to the Myers trade, Preller also traded away their young catcher, Yasmani Grandal (11.3 WAR since being traded) for Matt Kemp and his huge contract (8 years and $160 million) that was signed in 2012. That contract has since prompted two salary dump trades. Kemp was about a 106 wRC+ (good for about 1.9 WAR over that time) guy with horrendous outfield defense for the Padres in just short of two years before they traded him to Atlanta, along with a bunch of money, for Hector Olivera. Justin Upton was also acquired via trade that off-season. The Padres sent 4 prospects (Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, and Dustin Peterson) and an International signing slot to the Braves to get the slugging outfielder. Smith broke out last season putting up 3.4 WAR. Fried, who is 25, still hasn’t found control of his excellent stuff but managed an xFIP of 3.24 for the Braves last season and struck out almost 12 batters per 9. Jace Peterson didn’t work out, while Dustin Peterson is at triple-A and still might turn into something. Justin Upton was worth about 3.5 WAR for the Padres and left the next season as a free agent, so in terms of WAR they’ve already lost that trade. Preller also traded for Craig Kimbrel, kept him for a year, and then traded him to the Red Sox for a bunch of prospects, so that one is tough to score. In terms of prospects, they gave up Matt Wisler and a draft pick which the Braves used to take their current number one prospect, a 21 year old third baseman named Austin Riley who has already spent most of a season at triple-A. The subsequent Kimbrel trade did bring them back Manuel Margot, so scoring that sequence of transactions will have to wait. They also signed James Shields, who had one mediocre year and one horrible year, but it worked out in the end because the Padres traded him to the ChiSox for two prospects including Fernando Tatis Jr..

The Padres did a pretty clean strip of their minor league system and spent a lot of money – and it didn’t work. San Diego went 74 and 88 and Preller has since worked hard to undo what he had done to the Padres system, which did work. To his credit, San Diego now has one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball. Now the question is, will Preller hit repeat and try to turn his youngsters into major league talent, or be patient and wait for all that talent to reach the majors? The best way to look at the current Padres roster is to use that thingy that sees the future. Then you don’t have to fret about them losing 90 games this season because the future-seeing-thingy showed you that good times are on the way. Their future is coming. Since MLB 2019 is still in the future let’s start there.

We won’t waste too much time discussing players who aren’t going to be around to contribute to winning Padres’ teams. Let’s start at one of the positions where the Padres have their future in the lineup right now – catcher. Before last year the Padres looked like they were going to have a black hole behind the plate because starter Austin Hedges, who is an excellent defender, hadn’t figured out how to hit even a little bit. His 2017 was an improvement over 2016 and he only put up 69 wRC+. In 2018 Hedges figured something out and managed a wRC+ of 90 which makes him an average hitting catcher. His walk rate and his strikeout rate both moved in the right direction in 2018 and he is still only 26. His power is there with 32 home runs in his last 690 at bats, but his average is awful in part due to his high strikeout rate and subpar walk rate. He managed to hit .231 last season which was a big improvement considering his career batting average is .210 through his first 921 plate appearances. You may have heard this song before, but Hedges swings at too many pitches out of the strike zone and misses a lot when he swings. The good news is that the young catcher is an excellent defender. He has saved 32 runs (DRS) over the last two seasons and that includes  2018 where his throwing numbers, which are usually excellent, were down – the first time Hedges has been below league average. And he isn’t the only young catcher of note in the system.

Last season’s deal with the Indians that sent Brad Hand to Cleveland netted the Padres Francisco Mejia. Mejia is 23 and only has 69 at-bats in the majors but his minor league career shows him to be a high average hitter with developing power. Mejia doesn’t walk much but he also doesn’t strike out that much, so his offense is predicated on his ability to make hard contact. Can he catch? Well, he is no Austin Hedges, but he has mostly caught throughout his minor league career. He has also played some outfield and a bit of third. His defensive numbers behind the plate in the minors are solid – nothing stands out to say that he can’t catch, so his playing time at other spots is likely more about the Indians trying to make him versatile enough to get his bat in the lineup more often. The Padres only played him at catcher so take that as a statement of intent. Mejia is ready to get a real shot at the majors. Barring a trade it will be Hedges and Mejia back there in some kind of job share. Mejia switch hits and kills righties so he might get the lion’s share of a platoon as Hedges is strictly a righty.

Eric Hosmer is the first baseman until 2025 unless the Padres believe they made a mistake  and do something to move his contract. Last year, almost nothing went right for Hosmer when he had a bat in his hand. His OBP was down, his power diminished, his average dropped and he struck out more than he had in any season in the majors. If you think it was all park factor then you should take a look at his wRC+ numbers for the last four seasons. 2018’s 95 wRC+ was his lowest since 2012 (when he was 23) and the first time under 100 since 2014. The Padres probably thought they’d signed the 4.1 WAR Eric Hosmer of 2017, but what they got in the first year of the 8 years/$144 million was the -0.1 Eric Hosmer – ouch indeed! There are some positives to Hosmer like the fact that he plays pretty much every day and that he is reported to be a team leader, but there is no way to swallow that contract if he isn’t putting up at least 120 wRC+ every year at first base. Looking for an indicator that he might bounce back doesn’t show too much hope either. His BABIP was down a bit, but not by that much. His ground ball rate was up, so unless someone convinces him that his career depends on his swing path changing and then he can actually make the adjustment, then Hosmer is likely to hit into a ton of ground outs again. His hard contact rate was up a wee bit, but the rest of his batted ball profile regressed. He also pulled the ball at a rate of about 31% (like in 2017) and hit the ball to center a lot. That may have worked in KC, but in Petco it didn’t, at least for him.

He may rebound to be the guy who was worth 3.1, 3.5, and 4.1 WAR in the last three odd years respectively, or permanently turn into the even year Hosmer (-0.2, 0.2, and -0.1 WAR respectively in his last three even years). As you can see, he is extremely inconsistent so it is hard to predict what he will do from season to season, but there isn’t really anything that indicates a rebound coming. In today’s market, almost nobody is getting 8 year deals – especially not first basemen. The contract was a huge mistake even if Hosmer does rebound. Hoss is 29 and will be 36 when the contract is over. It remains to be seen if Preller can dig himself out from under this one, but in the meantime, the Padres have to hope that Hosmer can get back to at least a 3 WAR level.

The middle infield of the future is almost here for the Padres and if you are a fan then you are probably already excited. Luis Urias got his cup of coffee in the bigs last year and he won’t turn 22 until June. Urias is an on-base machine with decent extra base power. His career slash line in the minors (.306/.397/.405) is indicative of what the Padres are getting, although there is likely to be some adjustment. His number of triples at each level indicate speed, but his base stealing efficiency (35 of 73 in his career) shows that he has some aspects of the game still to master. Developed as a shortstop, Urias has seen more time at second of late and looks to be an excellent defensive second baseman unless the Padres need him to play shortstop where he would most likely be average. Based on his triple-A numbers he is ready, so the Padres should have their second baseman of the future in the lineup from the start of the season. He will eventually move toward the top of the lineup based on his contact skills and plate discipline (244 k’s to 220 walks in 1756 minor league at bats). He has star potential – something the Padres sorely need but haven’t seen in a while from one of their hitting prospects.

Urias’ double play partner of the future is a bit behind him in terms of experience, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is already showing crazy ability even though he won’t turn 21 until next post-season and has already shown that he can handle double-A. Tatis was ranked #2 in almost every prospect list last year and probably enters 2019 in the same spot. He is a big, athletic shortstop who might grow himself out of the position someday. He hits for power (42 home runs over his first 1059 at bats), steals bases (63 of 86), and gets on base (123 walks in that same span). The Padres should probably at least start him at triple-A next year, but it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that they will hand him the starting job if he has a great spring, service time be damned. A middle infield of Urias and Tatis is the most exciting pairing the Padres have seen since Roberto’s and rolled tacos with guacamole, but they should be patient – these guys are so young.

Christian Villanueva was a decent third baseman for a team not expected to contend – a bit below starter level at 1.2 WAR with a wRC+ of 104. I’m not sure what it says about the Padres intentions that they sold him to the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, other than the fact that he won’t be their third baseman in 2019. Until a few days ago, it looked like the Padres would run Wil Myers out there to play third base. 2018 was the first time Myers had started more than 15 games at third in his professional career; he started there 36 times last season. It wasn’t pretty by the numbers with -24.7 UZR/150, but the fact is they just don’t have anyone else to play the position at this point. Since the Padres announced that Myers would move back to the outfield, it seems that they are planning on trading for a third baseman or signing a free agent. They might change their minds again (if they can’t make a move to improve their lot at third) and move Myers back to the hot corner at some point. Myers numbers in left field are actually decent so it would be smart to move him back there, although it will present them with a logjam in left. As noted above, Myers needs to be better than just average with the bat if the Padres are going to get any value from his contract, not to mention competing in the West. There isn’t an exciting prospect near ready at third base so their future is likely to involve a trade or a free agent signing of a third baseman. They might eventually shift one of their young shortstops to third if they don’t find a better solution. Even squinting, it is hard to see Myers as the solution and the Padres apparently agree. That said, they need to have somebody play third!

The outfield is interesting at least. The Padres have some decisions to make especially if they move Myers to left. Their center fielder is 24 year old Manuel Margot who hasn’t put it all together yet. He is already a very good center fielder and his glove and speed will get him a lot of chances to figure it out. To put it simply, his main problem at this point is that he makes way too many outs. With two full seasons under his belt with wRC+ numbers of 90 and 81 in 2017 and 2018 respectively, it will be hard to carry his bat in their lineup unless he can produce at least league average numbers soon. Margot’s inability to get on base via the walk means he has to hit for a high batting average to not be a drain on the offense. 2017 looked like a step in the right direction as he got his OBP up to .313, but he regressed to an unacceptable .281 last year. Margot doesn’t strike out a lot (career rate of 18.5%), and he is only 24, so there is still time to take the next step.

Franmil Reyes is built like a defensive end at 6’5 and 275 pounds and he hits like one too (in the good way). His wRC+ of 129 was the best by far on the Padres last season and had he started from the beginning of the season with San Diego, he might have earned more attention in the Rookie of The Year voting. Reyes looked like a middle of the order beast with huge power in 2018. His batting average may have been inflated by a high BABIP so there could be some regression in that area; he is probably more likely to be a .260 hitter than a .280 hitter. The power is absolutely real. His defense wasn’t good last season and based on his minor league numbers he will probably be a below average right fielder with below average range (otherwise known as a left fielder), solid fielding percentage, and good assist numbers. The Padres will take it if he can continue to post 120+ wRC+ numbers. Heading forward he is likely to be the cleanup or 5 hole hitter and will eventually move to left or first base.

Hunter Renfroe had his second season in a row with 26 home runs, but his first season in the majors with above replacement level offensive production. Two things happened that helped Renfroe get to those better numbers. First, Renfroe’s walk rate increased by 1.2% in tandem with a decreased swing rate at pitches outside of the strike zone (41.1 % in 2016, 35.5% in 2017, and 32.7% in 2018). The outfielder also saw his strikeout rate drop 4.5% from his 2017 number – down to 24.7%. Renfroe’s improved plate discipline had a lot to do with his 28 point increase in batting average, even though his BABIP actually decreased a tiny bit. If he continues to make even modest gains in his plate discipline while holding onto his big time power then he could turn into a legitimate middle of the order hitter occupying the 5 or 6 hole on a good team. He is 26, so it is unclear how much more growth there is moving forward, but until he stops improving it is hard to put a number on him in ink. One more number that portends good things for Hunter Renfroe – his hard hit ball rate exploded from 34.6% to 47.2% in one season. His improvements, and a good BABIP year might make him look like a star in the near future as he is already a valuable offensive player and at least a solid left fielder. That is fine except with Myers in left they might bump into each other a lot! Seriously, one of their trades needs to be sending one of their left fielders somewhere, preferably for a third baseman.

23 year old Franchy Cordero has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the majors and he has shown that he hits the ball very hard (48.2% hard hit rate last season), misses on too many pitches (65% contact rate where 77 percent is league average), and he has serious physical tools. What we don’t know is whether or not he can play defense in the outfield as his stats from 2017 and 2018 are polar opposites (2017 looked good and 2018 looked horrific), but that could definitely be due to small sample size. His speed implies that he should be better in right than anyone else the Padres have assuming Margot is in center, but Renfroe, Myers, and Reyes also need a spot in the field. If not for Hosmer, one of them could move to first base. So the Padres have a lot of sorting to do and the market is flush with left fielder types. Of the left fielder types on their roster, Renfroe and Reyes probably have the most trade value especially if the deal is with an AL team where they could DH and play left sometimes. Margot and Cordero need a chance to prove that they can be more complete players if the Padres are to have a chance of having a decent outfield defense.

Petco Park, where the Padres play their home games, is a pitchers park. It was a pretty extreme pitchers park through 2017, and looking at the three year park factors it is obviously a difficult place for hitters and a good place for pitchers. The Padres have been able to develop relief pitchers, often turning them into prospects via trades – most recently Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. What they haven’t had recently is a stud in the starting rotation or much depth there for that matter, but that is soon to change. Right now the Padres have three starting pitchers who could conceivably be in the rotation in some role – probably the back end of the rotation – when the team becomes competitive again, but boy are they deep in the minors!

Starting with what they already have in their big league rotation, Joey Lucchesi has had the most success. In his major league debut season of 2018, he put together a FIP- of  107. FIP- is a park and league adjusted version of Fielding Independent Pitching where 100 is league average and lower is better. So he wasn’t great at preventing runs, but he wasn’t horrible. His peripherals are what makes his debut season interesting. Lucchesi struck out 10.04 batters per 9 innings and only walked 2.98 batters per 9 for a K/Walk ratio of 3.37. The peripheral stat that likely drove up that FIP- number was his home runs per 9 which was 1.59. That’s pretty horrific unless you are sitting in the seats past the left field fence hoping for souvenirs, in which case you are thrilled by that number. Looking at Lucchesi’s minor league numbers, the long ball wasn’t particularly a problem so it is reasonable to expect better numbers there going forward. Lucchesi doesn’t throw particularly hard, only spent one start in triple-A, but has had success at every level (except for that one very short, very ugly triple-A start). He is probably a 3 or a 4 moving forward.

Robbie Erlin is another soft tosser (by today’s standards), but he has immaculate control as evidenced by his walk rate of 0.99 walks per 9 innings last season. That’s extremely low even for Erlin, but he was recovering from Tommy John surgery (the operation was in May of 2016) so it is hard to say exactly what he is now – maybe that very low walk rate is real as he is finally healthy. He also struck out 7.27 batter per 9 which gave him a K/Walk rate of 7.33 in 2018. That is going to be hard to sustain, but Erlin fashioned a FIP- of 82 in part because he didn’t give free passes to first base or allow the ball to leave the park overly much (0.99 home runs per 9). The 28 year old contributed a career high 109 innings last season, which was almost 50 more than his previous career high, and he made 12 starts. It will be interesting to see if the Padres let him loose to pitch 32 starts or so. If he can hold up, the Padres probably have another 3 or a 4 in Erlin.

Eric Lauer, like Joey Lucchesi, allowed too many baseballs to leave the park (1.2 per 9), but unlike Lucchesi he also allowed a few too many walks (3.7 per 9). Lauer uses a five pitch mix to try to keep hitters off balance. Last year that led to 8.6 strikeouts per 9, but a higher than league average contact rate against him implying that he gets a lot of called third strikes. It will be interesting to see how he develops and if the former first round pick can turn himself into more than a 4. Not that a 4 isn’t valuable, but the Padres are flush with that kind of pitcher at the major league level and they need someone to separate themselves from the pack.

The likely future ace of the team is pitching in the minors right now, but which prospects will be the one to rule them all? Will it be Chris Paddock who reached Double-A last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery? Paddock put up insane peripheral numbers – 120 strikeouts to 8 walks over 90 innings while allowing only 66 hits. There is almost no way he can continue to post numbers like that as he progresses to triple-A and then the majors, but if he maintains that kind of profile he could be a 1 or a 2 in the majors by 2020.  Paddock – a top 50 prospect – might make his MLB debut in 2019, but he has never pitched more than 90 innings in a single season in pro ball. Next year will tell us a lot about what he will eventually become as he throws more innings over more starts. He throws an excellent fastball that touches 97 and a superior changeup but lacks a viable third pitch. His meteoric rise could be slowed if the Padres are insistent on Paddock developing his curveball or some other third pitch. You shouldn’t expect much at the big league level until 2020, but nobody expected him to have the 2017 that he did so…

It probably won’t be Logan Allen, although he is the most likely rotation piece to start the season by debuting in the majors. Allen made 19 starts in Double-A and finished the season by carving up Triple-A over 5 starts with a 1.63 ERA and 26 K’s over 27.2 innings. He looks a lot like a couple of the starters already in the rotation, lacking a huge fastball, but with good control and the ability to pitch deep because of his efficiency. His ceiling is likely a 3.

Honestly, the most likely starter to become the eventual ace won’t arrive next year. Their number 2 prospect and a top 20 overall prospect is starter, Mackenzie Gore. Gore was the #3 overall pick of the 2017 draft and as you would expect from a recent high school graduate he was up and down. He reaches the mid-90s with his fastball and compliments it with a slider, a curveball, and a change, all of which he struggled to command due to blister problems that sent him to the DL multiple times in 2018. Gore spent most of the season in full-season A ball. Since he only got to just over 80 innings it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start there with the hope that he could stay healthy enough to reach Double-A in 2019. If all goes well, expect a debut in 2020 and perhaps he will buy a condo in the Gaslamp District for 2021 when he becomes a mainstay of the rotation and a potential ace.

Cal Quantrill is close in the sense that he finished the season at triple-A, but his results show that he isn’t ready. He has stuff without having consistent command of his fastball/slider/change repertoire and until he can find consistency he won’t even hang onto a rotation spot in San Diego where mid-rotation guys are plentiful. Quantrill was a 2016 first round pick out of Stanford and it was hoped that he would take the ace post in the rotation eventually. So far Quantrill hasn’t dominated like you might expect from a future ace, but he is only 23 and has only pitched two seasons since Tommy John surgery. If he figures it out in 2019 at Triple-A, then he could find himself in San Diego sometime before the season is over. If he could re-establish himself as a future ace, then the Padres would be sitting pretty with multiple young pitchers competing for the top spot in the rotation.

Adrian Morejon and Luis Patino are really young and equally talented. Morejon pitched almost all of 2018 at High-A and won’t turn 20 until the end of February. He struck out more than a batter an inning and showed solid control. Arm issues shortened his season so he will need time to master his breaking pitches and a return to High-A seems likely. If he can stay healthy, then Morejon could see Petco Park by 2021. He has ace upside and will give the other young starters a run for the top spot in the rotation assuming he doesn’t lose more development time due to arm issues. Luis Patino is even younger than Morejon, but just made 17 starts in full-season A ball and dominated on his way to breaking onto some top 100 prospect lists. It is hard to know what is ahead for a 19 year old, but when you can throw almost 100 MPH and exhibit control at such a young age, it is hard not to get excited about future ace potential. He has a long way to go to get to the majors and still needs to develop his off-speed pitches to compliment his fastball and slider.

One more young pitcher in the pipeline is 6’8” Michel Baez. Baez sits mid-90s with his fastball and showed solid control until his four start debut in double-A. He will likely start 2019 in double-A and has work to do on his slider, curveball and change as well as his fastball command before he debuts in San Diego. Pitchers of his size with control and big heat are rare and his ceiling is top of the rotation, but he has a ways to go before he contributes to a pennant race in San Diego.

Bullpens change so quickly that when examining the future of a team like the Padres, there is almost no reason to even talk about the relief pitchers currently on the team. One of the young starters might end up in the pen if they can’t figure out an off-speed pitch, or a young reliever could end up traded as the Padres have done in the past. For example, Kirby Yates, who eventually took on the closer role after Brad Hand was traded, will turn 32 during spring training. He dominated last year with almost 13 K’s per 9 and fewer than two and half walks per 9. He can’t be a free agent until 2021 and after the season he just had, it seems like he would be an obvious trade chip for a team still two years away from contending. Craig Stammen also was a beast in the pen, and he will turn 35 before opening day. He would certainly draw interest from other teams and probably won’t be around when the Padres are ready to contend for the NL West crown. So until the Padres can piece together a rotation and fill out the rest of their lineup convincingly there is really no reason to look at the pen very closely to see what it will look like moving forward as there is no obvious closer waiting in the wings, and the current closer is unlikely to be around when saves start to matter.

The best case scenario based on the development of Urias, Tatis Jr., their young outfield, and their virtual army of young starting pitching rapidly developing down on the farm is that the Padres seriously contend in 2021. It is possible that the Padres spend money to accelerate that estimate or trade some of their young talent to jump the line, but what is really needed now is some measure of patience and continued good drafts to make sure than when that window opens for the Padres they can stay contenders for a long time. The park is gorgeous and so is the farm system. That seems like a hot mix for perennial contenders in the wild, wild, West.

 

You Can’t Always Get What You Want, But If You Have Enough Money…

The last time the Phillies had a winning season was 2011 which was also the last time they made the playoffs, so you can excuse fans and the front office if they are eager to jump-start their return to relevance by throwing gobs of money at shiny free agents this off-season. I’m sure they would love to add Bryce Harper and Manny Machado as well as Craig Kimbrel and Madison Bumgarner (in trade) since their wallet would already be open. Having spent 39 days in first place in 2018, likely a bit ahead of their own time table for success, is exciting for the Philly faithful, but just like it is a bad idea to go grocery shopping when you are hungry, it is prudent to be cautious in the off-season trade and free agent market after you have over-performed during the season just past.

It is important to remember that the Phillies are still a very young team and that their window is just starting to open. They have a deep farm system ranked 5th coming into the 2018 season by MLB.com and a #7 mid-season ranking by Bleacherreport.com with some star potential from the mound and in the lineup. They also have some players in place at the major league level who should be part of their next playoff team. There comes a point in every rebuild where a team needs to push their chips in and wedge something into that window to keep it open as long as they can. Is this the year the Phillies are holding suited “big slick”? But enough of the poker references – let’s explore the Phillies chances in 2019 as well as the width of their window.

The Phillies recently made a big trade with Seattle to bring in a new shortstop – Jean Segura – while also moving their first baseman from last year, Carlos Santana to make room for Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins had spent 2018 miscast as a left fielder. In sending Carlos Santana and their perennial shortstop of the future, J.P. Crawford, to the Mariners, they shed Santana’s big contract and received Jean Segura who will move into the starting shortstop spot barring the signing of a free agent shortstop like Manny Machado. They also acquired two bullpen pieces in Juan Nicasio and James Pazos. Was this a future trade or a trade for now? In a way, it was both. J.P. Crawford has not turned into the star the Phillies have been hoping for. Crawford will play as a 24 year old in 2019 so it’s not like he is done cooking. The Mariners are hoping that his growth continues and they have their shortstop for the next 5 years. He looked like a good-fielding shortstop until last year so if nothing else the Mariners likely have a good glove man with great plate discipline. He might be more if his power develops as many thought it would. By acquiring Segura to take his spot, the Phillies have traded some defense and a lot of potential for a solid bat and a decent glove. In his last three seasons Segura has put up at least 111 wRC+ which for a shortstop is excellent. His WAR has been between 3.0 and 5.1 in those three seasons so it is pretty clear that he is conservatively a 3 WAR shortstop. His glove is solid with DRS making him look better than UZR and although he isn’t Ozzie Smith, he also isn’t Hanley Ramirez either. At 28 with a contract that takes him through the 2023 season when he will be 32-33, the Phillies have solidified the position for 2019 and through their current window of contention, so they gave up some higher ceiling future and got a moderately higher floor back.

This off-season has been an interesting reshuffling of the lineup, but let’s finish with the infield before we look at the outfield. Rhys Hoskins was in left last season, which was the equivalent of the Phillies gluing a horn to his head and declaring, “See! He’s a unicorn!”. Hoskins is a valuable young asset but he is no left fielder. One important result from the moves the Phils have made so far is that Hoskins gets to play his natural position – first base. Based on a small sample size at the major league level, Hoskins is an average first baseman and a god-awful left-fielder. He is also a home run hitting, walk generating, offensive machine who according to interviews with the club was also a team leader in his first full season in the majors. He didn’t exactly come out of nowhere but it wasn’t until 2016 that he made the Phillies top 10 prospect list. That was after mashing 38 homers at double-A and drawing 77 walks. In Hoskins, the Phils have a cleanup hitter, and now he is a first baseman again, so he doesn’t have the pressure of learning a new position. In just over a season and a half, he has 52 home runs and a career wRC+ of 136. His poor outfield defense offset his great production with the bat and he ended up with only 2.9 WAR in 2017 when as a first baseman he is likely a 4 WAR player – maybe more. 2017 will be his age 26 season so there is likely more in the tank – exciting for Phillies fans.

After Segura and Hoskins, the rest of the infield isn’t quite as certain. As it stands right now, Cesar Hernandez is likely the starting second baseman, with Maikel Franco at third  and Jorge Alfaro carrying the lion’s share of the catching load. Franco just had his first wRC+ above 100 since 2015, but Franco is viewed as a huge disappointment. Part of that is tied to Franco’s limitations, and part of it is caused by unrealistic expectations. Franco, who already has close to 2000 at-bats in the majors, is only 26 and he has three seasons in a row with at least 20 home runs. When you hit 25 homers as a 23 year old, expectations get ratcheted up pretty high, and Franco was thought of as a rising star. What he is, as a 26 year old, is an average to slightly below average starter. That isn’t worthy of the acrimony that follows Franco round as if he had burned your family home. He is not the cornerstone of a team and isn’t likely to be because he isn’t a very good defender or baserunner and he doesn’t walk enough. Unless he changes his profile, he will continue to be a 1.5 WAR guy which is almost good enough to hold down a starting spot on a championship team and good enough to be a placeholder who bats 7th. Cesar Hernandez is a different story. He flies solidly under the radar and generates runs while preventing them at second, short, and third. And he’s a gamer, having played 161 games in 2018 even though he was playing with a broken foot for most of the second half of the season. He is a 3 WAR, positionally versatile, leadoff hitter with a career .357 OBP who showed improved pop last year. At 28 this is probably what he is and that is valuable, especially if you take into account the fact that he is under team control until 2021.

Jorge Alfaro is interesting. That isn’t meant in the Irish Curse sense of the word – “May you lead an interesting life” – but he is hard to pin down. He is still a bit raw and young (for a catcher) so he could still turn into all the cool things baseball people have expected of him since he was 2 (maybe not quite that early). Alfaro has tremendous raw power and turned it into game power in 2018 hitting 10 homers in 377 plate appearances. Power is fun and all, but his approach is very exploitable as his staggering 179 to 22 strikeout to walk ratio in his first 467 plate appearances will attest. A 35% strikeout rate is untenable when you flat out will not walk, even when you have good power. Look – a tiny chart! This wee chart shows rates for Jorge Alfaro in 2018 in comparison to league average. O-swing and O-contact refer to swing and contact rates on pitches out of the strike zone respectively. Swing and contact percentages are for all pitches, both in and out of the strike zone.

O-Swing% O-Contact% Swing% Contact%
Alfaro 46.9% 42.9% 61.1% 61%
League 30.9% 62.8% 46.6% 77%

The chart above illustrates two things. 1 – Jorge Alfaro swings at freakin’ anything and everything. 2 – Jorge Alfaro misses a lot of pitches regardless of where they are thrown. Until he curbs his free-swinging ways, pitchers have no reason to throw him strikes, which, by the way, are much easier to hit than pitches outside of the strike zone. Free swingers sometimes succeed but those free swingers tend to make a lot of contact. Alfaro put together a 96 wRC+ last year which makes him an above average offensive catcher – largely due to his power and an unsustainable BABIP of .406 – see – hard to pin down. In addition, his second half numbers were better than his first half numbers. Behind the plate, Alfaro has a mixed profile too. He led the league with 10 passed balls, managed to throw out runners at close to the league average rate, and his framing runs saved was 5th in the bigs at just over 12 runs saved. The bar is set pretty low on offense for catchers these days, so Alfaro will be on a long leash because of his power and his tools behind the plate. The Phillies are in better shape than a lot of teams with him back there, but that is more an indictment of the state of catching than praise for Alfaro.

Philadelphia is reportedly in the Machado sweepstakes which – if they sign him – would probably mean that Segura would shift to second and Hernandez to third, pushing Franco to a Gulag in Siberia most likely. Even without Machado, the infield is better with Segura at short, Hoskins at first, and Hernandez healthy. Franco could still improve even if it is just luck – he has a very low BABIP for his career of .263. The Phils could also sign a second baseman as there is a glut of good ones in free agency right now. That would allow them to move Hernandez to third. Let’s just say they have a lot of options.

The outfield has improved by a good amount in the last couple of weeks both by subtraction (Hoskins moving to first) and addition (free agent signing of Andrew McCutchen). Cutch has settled in as a 120 wRC+ guy who is no longer a center fielder, although he should be able to handle left. His defense knocks down his WAR a bit, but he is roughly a 3 WAR guy now. He brings great value as a leadoff hitter with some pop. At 31, McCutchen is still fast and has some pop so he is a valuable addition to the offense. The center fielder, Odubel Herrera, had a downright awful year (0.9 WAR). For the second year in a row, his offensive production was about league average. This follows two seasons where he produced runs at about 10% above league average. But what really drove down his value was his defense. Herrera will be 27 this season so this is a make or break year for him. As the Phillies move into contention they are unlikely to allow Herrera to start unless he can bring something like his 2015 and 2016 levels to the party. In right field, Nick Williams is only 24 and has just short of 800 plate appearances in the majors. Even though his more visible numbers dropped (batting average from .288 to .256 and slugging percentage from .473 to .425) some of his peripheral numbers improved. He struck out 3.5% less often than he had in 2017 and he walked 7.1% of the time as opposed to his 2017 rate of 5.8%. His BABIP in 2017 was an unsustainable .375, so of course it dropped (to .312 in 2018). If he can continue to make gains with his control of the strike zone then he could become a solid regular. As it stands, he had a wRC+ of 103 which doesn’t hurt the team (actually 3% above league average). What did hurt the team was Williams’ glove work which left something to be desired last season. With a DRS of -15 (UZR/150 of -16.1) at his primary position (right field), Williams has to produce at a pretty high level at the plate to hold the starting spot. His bat plays if he is an average right fielder but not if he is a bad outfielder, so something needs to improve if the Phils are going to keep running him out there as a starter.

At this moment the outfield will likely be McCutchen in left, Odubel Herrera in center, and probably Nick Williams in right. Roman Quinn was the primary fourth outfielder, and Scott Kingery could play on the grass when he isn’t spotting guys on the dirt. Quinn got some starts in center as Herrera struggled but didn’t exactly light it up and certainly didn’t steal Herrera’s spot. Quinn is fast and has a history of getting on base at a decent rate, but for someone with almost no power he strikes out a lot – over 25% so far in his time in the majors. For Quinn to steal Herrera’s spot he needs to get on base more than he did last year (almost 32% of the time) and play better defense. Even for him to hold the fourth outfielder spot his defense needs to be better as the Phillies try to change last season’s profile as one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Quinn put up negative defensive numbers at all three outfield spots so it is really his bat that earns him playing time.

Aaron Altherr is a mess and it would be surprising to see him get a starting job barring someone getting hurt. He still has power, but strikes out too much (31.9% last season) and now carries a career .228 average with 1090 career plate appearances under his belt. His career 96 wRC+ isn’t bad, and his glove is solid – career DRS of 6 in the outfield, but his power isn’t enough to carry that strikeout rate or that batting average. Team control through 2022 is one thing in Altherr’s favor. If Quinn keeps striking out and doesn’t get on base more while still flashing subpar leather, Altherr might be a better choice as the fourth outfielder because he puts up better defensive numbers and provides power off the bench. Scott Kingery looked like he might be ready to breakout coming out of spring training but he never hit. Kingery didn’t have a single month of the season with on an on-base percentage above .295. The Phils played him more at shortstop than any other position and his glove was good. His defense looked good all over the place so if he produces with the bat the way he did in the high minors with power and a high batting average then he will be a valuable asset because of his positional flexibility. Philadelphia will give him a chance to show that he learned from his 484 plate appearances. One number that augurs poorly for Kingery are his low walk totals. If he can’t control the strike zone then he won’t start and he will be passed as a bench player at some point.

The Phillies could upgrade at an outfield corner without breaking the bank. They could also decide that Nick Williams has more in the tank than he has shown and stand pat. Aaron Altherr has pretty much shown at this point that he isn’t the guy they thought he was, but he can still battle Roman Quinn for the 4th outfield spot. They can’t afford to continue running out poor fielding outfielders who are only average hitters when it is easy to find better, relatively inexpensive players to fill those spots. This isn’t the hard part of putting together a team so if they intend to contend, they can’t screw this up.

In the field and at the plate, the Phils have a lot of needs if they want to be serious contenders in a division with the Braves, Nationals, and Mets (no need to worry about the Miami Jeters yet.) They need either a 2nd baseman or a 3rd baseman to take the place of Franco. If they decide to keep him and upgrade elsewhere then they need a corner outfielder. Michael Brantley would have been a great addition but the Astros just signed him. A.J. Pollock is still out there as is Marwin Gonzalez – and then there is Bryce Harper.

Before we move on to the pitching staff, let’s look at the big picture. There are some easy ways for teams to screw up when they are starting to come out of  a rebuild. The Phils have a chance to keep their window open for some time because of their minor league system and their big market financial profile. They could take on some pretty hefty contracts without too much fear that a mistake would handcuff them, but they can’t be reckless. The bigger issue is that teams can get ahead of themselves and start shipping out their prospects in an attempt to speed up the exit from rebuilding to competing. This can shorten the length of the window and kill a rebuild before it starts bearing fruit. So they need to tread carefully and not bury themselves in ugly contracts that last a decade while still upgrading enough to contend with the rest of the division. Having said that, what of the pitching?

Aaron Nola is the undisputed ace of the staff after contributing 5.6 WAR in his age 25 season – a breakout season for the 6’2” righty. Nola’s strikeout and walk rates were closely aligned with his career numbers. What separated this season from his previous seasons was his durability and his decreased home run rate. Nola pitched 212.33 innings over 33 starts where his career highs were 168 innings and 27 starts. Nola induces a lot of grounders and also saw his home run rate drop to .72 home runs per 9 innings (and his HR/Fly Ball rate dipped to 10.6%). Nola looks like he is still improving a bit each year so the Phils are in good shape at the top of their rotation assuming Nola remains healthy.

After Nola, the rest of the starters looked like 3s or 4s last year with WAR between 2.0 and 2.8 for each of the next four of Nola’s rotation mates. Not all of them look to follow the same career paths though. If you look at the numbers, the number two guy in the rotation based on xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) would be Nick Pivetta at 3.42. By strikeout percentage the number two spot belongs to, well, Nola – with Pivetta in the one spot. That was some cherry picking of stats, but Pivetta did some things in his second season in the rotation that portend good future performance. He lowered his walk rate (from 3.86 to 2.80) and home run rate (from 1.69 to 1.32 – still too high) while bumping up his strikeout rate (from 9.47 per 9 innings to 10.32). Those are significant changes to his peripheral stats and it shows in his xFIP which went from 4.26 to 3.42. It will be interesting to see if the Phils improve their defense enough to have Pivetta’s ERA and xFIP move closer to each other – one possible reason for the gap. Pivetta flies under the radar a bit because his ERA isn’t pretty. If it moves closer to his xFIP this year it might look like a breakout even if his xFIP stays the same. The point being that Pivetta is already a good starting pitcher even if he gives up too many bombs.

Behind Pivetta is probably Vince Velasquez. He is only 26 and seemed to disappear in 2017 after he excited Phillies’ fans in 2016. Velasquez was back and improved his numbers to the point where he is once again a valuable member of the rotation. His strikeout rate climbed back close to where it was in 2016 and his walk rate dropped close to 2016 levels as well. One area of big improvement was his home run rate which dipped under 1.0 for the first time. In 2016 it sat at 1.44 which is tough to live with. Velasquez had an xFIP of 4.12 in 2018, and the Phils will be looking for him to pick up where he left off.

Jake Arrieta is a sinker/slider pitcher throwing one of those two pitches more than 77% of the time last year. He used to throw a mid-90’s fastball but has lost a couple MPH in the last two seasons and rarely uses the four-seam at all. Arrieta isn’t the ace who was really hard to take deep anymore. During his two incredible years with the Cubs his home run rates per nine innings were 0.29 and 0.39 – both incredible rates. Each of the last two seasons he has been above 1.0 at 1.23 and 1.09 respectively. 1.09 is respectable but nowhere close to his previous level of stinginess. 2017 saw Arrieta get back to his career ground ball rate. If this is what he is now, he is still useful. Expectations are hard to compete with, but as long as the Phillies are happy with their current version of Jake Arrieta then everything should be fine. Fours seasons in a row of 30 plus starts is quite valuable, but he isn’t an ace anymore.

Zack Eflin is another youngster with just 46 starts in the majors, but last season saw some nice improvements from the tall, 24 year old righty. Eflin picked up 2 MPH on his fastball in the off-season and averaged 95.2 in 2018. He also added some giddyup to his slider while keeping his change close to where it was before, adding more separation between it and his heater. The slider and the fastball both earned positive pitch values in 2018 meaning hitters struggled with both pitches more than they had in the past. The changeup was actually less effective which might be because of sequencing or any number of other reasons. The most notable sign of improvement for Eflin was hitters’ contact rates. From 2016 to 2017 to 2018, hitters had contact rates on Eflin pitches of 88.0%, 84.8% and 78.7% respectively. That’s almost 10 points of improvement in two seasons and is highlighted by his increase of two strikeouts per 9 innings in 2018 over his career rate.

The Phillies’ rotation has youth on their side, an emerging ace in Nola, and a solid inning eating veteran in Arietta. With continued improvement from the young staff the Phillies might actually have enough starting pitching. They don’t have the one-two punch of the Nationals or the Mets, but 1 to 5 they are deeper than most teams. Here is an area where the Phillies are already competitive but could take the next step to top of the division status with the addition of a strong two or another ace. The question then is do they go after someone now or wait one more year to see how the rest of the starters and young hitters develop? Now that Patrick Corbin is off the board, it would mean they would have to trade for a starter for it to be a significant upgrade, and that would be costly in terms of prospects. You never know what will happen contractually between now and the start of free agency. Players sign extensions or get injured so you have to be flexible with your planning. That said, names like Verlander, Hamels, Porcello, Sale, Bumgarner and Cole get sprung from contractual bondage before the 2020 season and the current versions of all of those pitchers would fit the bill without the Phillies having to deplete their strong minor league system. It seems clear that the Phillies should stand pat to start the season and make a trade at the deadline if they are in the playoff hunt and need a big arm or just wait until free agency to throw money at someone.

Not that there weren’t good pitchers there, but the bullpen was a mess in 2018. Hector Neris started the season as the closer but gave up a boatload of homers (2.1 per 9 innings) and ended up spending time in the minors before making a late-season return to Philly. Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek also took turns as the closer before Seranthony Dominguez captured the lion’s share of the role. There has been noise that the Phillies are looking for an established closer for 2019, but so far there hasn’t been a move. In spite of the musical chairs action in the closer’s role, there are some nice pieces in the pen. Dominguez was a wild, hard-throwing starter in the minors through the 2017 season and began the conversion in double-A at the start of the 2018 season. After 11 appearances at two levels he got the call to pitch in for the parent club. Dominguez stuck out 11.48 batters per 9 innings and walked 3.41 so there is still some wild in his game to go along with the big strikeout totals. An xFIP of 3.04 is plenty good and he generated a lot of ground balls to go with the whiffs (55.7% GB rate) which makes sense when you look at his excellent home run rate of .62 home runs per 9 innings last season. The 23 year old righty was exceptionally difficult to hit, allowing only 5.0 hits per 9 innings in 2018. He is the closer, but there a lot of relievers on the market so that could change if the Phillies decide they can’t live with the high walk totals.

Edubray Ramos, who is 26, didn’t get a chance to close and he is probably the setup man or the guy they give the ball to in the 7th. Ramos, like Dominguez, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of strikeouts (8.86 K’s per 9 and 0.84 home runs per 9). He was also a little harder to hit last season as his hits per 9 dropped to 7.2 which was significantly below his career mark of 8.1. Ramos was out with an injury for part of the season but has had three solid seasons in a row and figures to be an important part of the pen. Pay attention to his fastball velocity at the start of the season – he has lost one MPH each of the last two seasons but still averaged 93.8 in 2018.

Tommy Hunter had a solid year in line with his career numbers and he continued his improved ability to prevent home runs which used to be the knock on him. He has four seasons in a row of fewer than one big fly per 9 innings. Hunter is a durable pen arm. Juan Nicasio and James Pazos came over in the trade with Seattle and both men should figure prominently in the pen for 2019. Nicasio is a converted starter who thrived in the pen last year. His strikeout rate was up (11.36 per 9) and his walk rate was down (1.07 per 9). One area of concern was his home run rate which was up to 1.29 last season, but Nicasio is a fly ball pitcher so that will happen – and it might happen more in Philly. If his walk rate stays low it won’t hurt him that much. Pazos improved his numbers in 2018 – his second full season in the bigs. Although his K rate dropped to 8.10, his walk rate also dropped to a very workable 2.70 per 9 and his home run rate fell to 0.72. In Nicasio, Pazos and Hunter, the Phillies have the depth and length to get them to the late inning guys like Ramos, Dominguez and even Neris, if he can recapture his effectiveness.

There are many other moving parts, but the quiet additions the Phils have made to their pen should make them more effective at holding leads. They don’t have a bunch of flashy names like the Mets or the Nats, but they should be better in 2019. With the number of bullpen arms out there, the Phillies could afford to wait out the market and sign one more late inning guy without harming their rebuild. They could also spend money on Adam Ottavino, who has already proven that he can pitch in a hitters park. Ottavino could either close or pitch the 8th giving the Phils a tough 7th, 8th, and 9th pitching combo. Relief pitchers who can succeed year after year are hard to find, so spending talent to acquire top end relievers is a dangerous tactic. Spending money to lock up a reliever for a year or two seems to be the way to go – look at the A’s last year – and the Phillies have plenty of money. They could pick up a few wins by spending money on the pen. As long as they don’t do something stupid like signing a top reliever to a contract longer than three seasons, they should be fine.

The minor league system is flush with pitching, and it is a good mix of guys who are sitting at double-A (Sixto Sanchez and Adonis Medina) and triple-A (Jojo Romero, Ranger Suarez, and Eynel de los Santos)  and youngsters like Spencer Howard and Franklin Morales who have a ways to go still. Having a lot of pitching is a fantastic problem to have and the Phils should try hard not to give away that depth in their desire to win right now. They also have a couple of position players with very high upside in their top 10 prospects – namely shortstop Luis Garcia and third baseman Alex Bohm. Again, these aren’t pieces to be frittered away as they both have star upside. Not to say that the Phillies should never trade prospects, just that they shouldn’t do it now because while they are close, they still need some youngsters to develop so that they have the depth and the top level talent that other teams like the Nationals and the Braves already have.

There is a lot to juggle when putting together a major league team and the Phillies situation is tricky. If they take their time, they could be on their way to putting together a great run of competitiveness. If they rush and sell their future in a bid to compete right now, then they could be right back where they were before the rebuild. They also have to look at the other teams in the division. The Nationals look to be good again and they have some young talent, although their pitching is mostly dependent on veterans. The Braves are good AND young, and they have depth that might surpass the Phillies’ system. The Mets are improving at the big league level but their minor league system is thin. Yes, the Phillies can compete right now, but they will likely be competing with fewer excellent teams in their division if they are patient and push their chips in next season. The Mets are in win now mode as are the Nationals (who also have a lot of young talent so they aren’t going away anytime soon). The Braves and Phillies are primed to be the power in the NL East for years to come as long as the Phillies don’t get out over their skis and give away their young talent. Breathe, Phillies Faithful, breathe!

 

Trading From Strength to Improve a Strength in Chavez Ravine

An embarrassment of wealth is nothing to be embarrassed about when you are a major league club. In the case of the LA Dodgers, they have an embarrassing amount of money and an embarrassing number of major league or major league ready outfielders. Obviously the Dodgers are a supremely talented organization with lots of resources, a deep minor league system, and very deep pockets – they have reached the World Series two years in a row now. Their pitching staff led the league in xFIP- which is a park adjusted, league adjusted, defense independent version of ERA where 100 is average and lower is better. The Dodgers pitching staff had an xFIP- of 86, so they were 14% better than league average. Their hitters led the majors in wRC+ (111 that’s 11 percent better than league average) which is a league and park adjusted measure of their ability to put runs on the board. And that’s without their star shortstop, Corey Seager. So it would be an easy argument to make that the Dodgers had the best pitching and the best offense in the National League and possibly in all of baseball. When you are already the best or one of the best teams in baseball how do you get better?

One way to improve upon greatness is to look at the margins; look at the areas where you might be inefficient so you can tighten some of the screws and get rid of a little of the shimmy to get the most out of that big engine. In baseball some of that inefficiency is beneficial because depth protects a team from injuries and slumps. However, if prospects are repeatedly blocked for long enough then the system becomes inefficient and something needs to be done either through a trade, by someone moving positions, or by allowing players to leave via free agency. The Dodgers are in the enviable position of having too many good outfielders. It is an interesting predicament to have too many outfielders at a time when a much-anticipated free agent hits the market and he happens to be an outfielder – yes, Bryce Harper. The Dodgers have met with Harper and even brought Magic Johnson to the meeting showing that they are really serious. But Harper would add to the logjam in the outfield unless LA decided it was time to push some of their outfield logs downstream. So let’s look at this in two ways. The Dodgers need to consolidate some of their outfield talent and they might also benefit from signing a superstar like Bryce Harper.

In spring training before the 2018 season, the Dodgers made a financial move to help avoid luxury tax by trading Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Charlie Culberson, Brandon McCarthy, and some cash for Matt Kemp. Most people paying attention to transactions assumed Kemp would be waived before the season started considering how much outfield depth the Dodgers already possessed, and how done Kemp had looked in 2017. I’m not sure if it surprised the Dodgers to see Kemp in great shape in spring training and to see him displaying skills many thought he’d lost, but Kemp ended up making the All Star team and getting 506 plate appearances playing mostly left and some right field. Kemp then entered into a pretty hefty regression as illustrated in this Dan Syzmborski article from Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-redisappearance-of-matt-kemp/

He seemed to right the ship for the last 20 games of the season, but with one year left on his contract and at age 34, Kemp should be a DH somewhere because of his defensive numbers which might be generously described as suboptimal.

Aside from Kemp, who would be hard to move, unless the Dodgers managed another contract swap move with an AL team who could use him as a DH or bench bat, LA has another seven outfielders who would start in the outfield for other teams. Starting with Andrew Toles who is coming off injuries – Toles put together a nice season at triple-A but the crowded outfield in LA meant that he only saw action in 17 games and logged 30 at-bats – not even enough to bother looking at his numbers there. Toles deserves a chance to see what he can do in an extended tryout as a regular. The speedy outfielder has a .792 OPS in about half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the majors and defensive metrics show that he can play all three outfield spots and save the team runs. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2021 and can’t be a free agent until 2024 at which time your kids will be starting college or enlisting in the marines – pretty far off, eh? He seems like a great fit for a small market team and might bring back a moderate prospect in a trade.

Enrique (Kike) Hernandez has become a fan favorite in LA and the only position he hasn’t played in the majors is catcher. Yep, he threw a third of an inning last year. He has over 1700 innings of work with 16 career DRS and a small sampling at each infield spot showing that he can at least not stink up the joint while sporting various infielder’s gloves – that includes some excellent work at shortstop. Add to that Hernandez’ 118 wRC+ in his most plate appearances ever (462) and Kike looks like the team’s resident Zobrist. A lot of his increased offensive value came from a huge power spike to 21 home runs, so in order for Hernandez to hold all of his newfound value he has to hold on to the increased power. Regardless, he has value as a player who can increase your depth bench by being a gloveman everywhere and a right-handed bat with speed a pop. His contract situation is still favorable as he is arbitration eligible but can’t test free agency until 2021. Could he start elsewhere? Probably, but keeping him as a reserve allows the Dodgers to keep more relievers with a multitool available who replaces multiple position players on the bench.

Chris Taylor is a similar player to Kike Hernandez in that he can play the outfield and infield and can hit. He does his best work in the outfield and at third base but can be used to cover shortstop and second base also. He put up a wRC+ of 113 which looked like a disappointment after his revelatory 2017 (126 wRC+), but like Hernandez he can hit home runs, is speedy on the basepaths, and can play everywhere. Also a righty, he can’t be a free agent until 2022 but is a year older than Kike – so who to trade? They seem redundant, right? All teams are looking for players like Hernandez and Taylor so it should be easy to move one of them for something of value. Keeping both of them allows the Dodgers supreme flexibility but again, we are talking about consolidating resources. Ship one of them if you can get back something you need or want.

Cody Bellinger isn’t going anywhere. At 23, the youngster has already amassed 7.6 WAR (Fangraphs style) and put up seasons of 138 and 120 wRC+. Bellinger is fast and athletic so while he can play first base well (4 DRS in two seasons), his raw ability points toward moving him to the outfield if he can swing it. So far he looks exciting out there at times – https://www.mlb.com/cut4/cody-bellinger-slides-along-the-grass-after-big-game-4-catch/c-297998112

and a look at his numbers in limited work look promising, if mixed. His outfield UZR numbers aren’t consistently strong in opposition to his DRS. He has 11 DRS spread across the three spots in two seasons and just short of 900 innings played across all three spots.  It seems clear that he is or could be at least an average if not an excellent outfielder and why rush him to the weak end of the defensive spectrum (first base) if he can handle a tougher position when he is so young? Bellinger is a star with the potential to be a superstar and he can’t leave the Dodgers of his own volition until 2024.

Yasiel Puig is one of the more divisive players in the majors from his bat licking and mugging that some people (surprisingly?) don’t like, to his canon-like arm in right, his tremendous power and his thrilling, if sometimes overly aggressive, base running. His Puigness has been mentioned as trade fodder possibly more than anyone else in baseball but this off-season might be the year he actually moves somewhere. After six seasons in the majors, it is hard to remember that he is only 27. At 22 and 23 he had seasons of 4 WAR and 5.5 WAR and it looked like he was on his way to becoming a superstar, but then consecutive seasons of 2.5 total WAR put his value in question. 2017 was a bounce back year for him as he posted 2.9 WAR but then 2018 saw him platooned most of the season and he ended up with 444 plate appearances and 1.8 WAR. His defensive numbers seem to bounce around from season to season, but he is regarded as a talented, if sometimes inconsistent, defender. His wRC+ shows his offensive value better than his WAR – 117 and 123 in his last two seasons shows where he is right now. If he gets platooned again then you can count on around 120 wRC+, but if he plays full time it would be hard to project what he will do. He isn’t a complete disaster against lefties, (career .250/.340/.417 slash line) but he does give away about 80 points of slugging, 40 points of batting average, and 15 points of on-base percentage. He could play every day and be fine. The Dodgers have the luxury, but not the necessity, of platooning him. If they played him every day he might even learn to hit lefties better. He makes good money due to arbitration and will be a free agent in 2020 so this might be the best time to trade him. Many teams would take on his temperament – seemingly less of an issue as he matures – to get his talent on the field.

Joc Pederson looked like he would be the next great Dodger outfielder when he made the All Star team at age 23, but his low average, high intensity, swing and miss game has limited his plate appearances since then. 2015 was the only season where he was given 500 plate appearances (585). In 2017 it was looking like Joc might play his way out of LA or at best become a bench player, until he went off in the post-season belting three homers against Houston in the Series and putting up an OPS of 1.334. Peterson played regularly in 2018 taking the big end of a platoon, slugged .522, put up 126 wRC+, and contributed 2.7 WAR. And he is 26. Is there more in Joc’s game still to come? He did cut down dramatically on his strikeouts getting punched out 19.2% of the time – more than 5 points below his career average of 24.9%. He has speed, can play all three spots in the outfield although his numbers look best in left. His power was still there even with the diminished fan rate so what could he do with another 550 plate appearances somewhere? Unlike Puig, Joc has appeared to be helpless against lefties so unless he does something to disprove his slash line in 325 career PA’s against lefties (.181/.266/.317) he will continue to be a platoon outfielder and because of that have somewhat limited trade value. He is still in the arbitration years of his contracts and he won’t be eligible for free agency until 2021.

Speaking of blocked players, Alex Verdugo has been ready for an extended shot at a starting job in the majors since his 2017 triple-A season. In 2018, he repeated the level and improved, showing a bit more power while maintaining his high average ways. Verdugo is only 22 which means he mastered triple-A just as he was allowed to order a beer at The Flea in OKC. Sitting on the bench in LA probably isn’t doing his development a lot of good so the Dodgers need to work him into the outfield rotation, send him back to triple-A again to show off, or trade him. Verdugo has a lot of trade value as the Dodgers top offensive prospect (#25 on the 2018 Baseball America prospect list) who could move right into a starting outfield spot and be under team control for 6 or so years.

There is one more player to consider, and he is sitting at triple-A waiting for a chance to play in LA. Edwin Rios is 24, so not quite as precocious as some of the other Dodgers hitters. Rios just finished his first full year in OKC after looking good in a partial season there in 2017. He has played almost everywhere – mostly third and first, but also a decent amount of left field the last two seasons. He has tremendous power unlike Verdugo, hits for average although not quite as much as Verdugo, and strikes out more than Verdugo. So depending on your flavor of hitter and what position you need to fill, Rios, who is not particularly slick with the glove, is still a nice piece to have in spite of his defensive limitations. The Dodgers could try him at first with Bellinger in the outfield. They could also trade him as he has value as a power hitter with many years of team control. He would be a perfect fit on an AL team.

Phew! That’s a lot of options! The Dodgers should keep either Taylor or Hernandez, keep Bellinger obviously, then decide if Puig is their guy moving forward or go all-in on Harper and offset the spending by installing Verdugo in center with Joc spelling everyone. Free Andrew Toles! That’s still five outfielders – six if they try Rios at first – but one of them would double as the utility infielder. That would open up their bench, get them some nice returns in trades, bring in some star power if they sign Harper, and still leave them with enough versatility to handle an injury or a slump by one of the starters. Man it must be good to be a Dodger fan!