Category: pitching

Can the Padres starting rotation rebound from a disappointing 2015 or will A.J. Preller need to find new employment?

The 2016 Padres Starting Pitchers –  The Big 3 have a 4th
By Hugh Rothman
Petco Park, the Padres current shiny home field opened in 2004. The place was a jewel, especially when compared to their previous home park, Qualcomm Stadium, which was previously the only home the organization had ever known. Qualcomm Stadium was a football stadium which graced the Padres with a shoehorned baseball diamond for home games. The sight lines were not designed for baseball and thus were quite substandard. The view was nonexistent which was beneficial, since the only thing to see beyond the stadium was the massive parking lot, which surrounded the stadium on all sides. The place had all the charm of Ted Cruz. Petco Park however, was a revelation! Tall downtown buildings glistened beyond the outfield fences. The old Western Metal Supply building had been left intact and was incorporated into left field, which was just one of the many charming aspects of the new ballpark. Stunning views of the bay and the Coronado Bridge were commonplace throughout the many nooks and crannies of the gorgeous structure.
Petco Park also has another cool feature: It is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in all of baseball history. No other ballpark in baseball history, whether modern or olden times has suppressed offense as much as Petco Park. The park dimensions are not overly huge like in the old Astrodome, nor is the foul ball area massive, like in Oakland Alameda coliseum. There are no wind-tunnel effects keeping the ball in the ballpark, like there are sometimes in Wrigley Field when the wind is blowing in. What makes Petco Park unique is the heavy, salty air that has the effect of turning deep fly balls into long outs. Phil Nevin can attest to this, which he famously did, glaring at then General Manager Kevin Towers when one of Nevin’s many long fly balls hit in his home park landed in the glove of a waiting outfielder rather than over the fence.
So, over the years, since the Padres have moved into their new digs, the team’s hitting has always looked rather anemic, while the pitching has generally appeared solid. Fly ball pitchers especially love pitching at Petco Park since many more of those fly balls stay in the park for outs, rather than over the fence for homers. In general, Padre hitters appear less valuable, while their pitchers appear more valuable than they are in reality.
2014: Looking Good
The 2014 exacerbated this viewpoint more than ever. The hitters had a historically awful season, but the pitching staff contributed championship-level caliber performances. Petco Park depressed offense by 10% overall that season, so this dichotomy was even more pronounced. However, pure numbers are still numbers and the Padre pitchers gave up just 577 runs in 2014. That is an excellent result; it was 2nd in the league and would have been enough to propel the Padres to a championship if their hitting had been just ok. Tyson Ross in particular had an excellent season, pitching 195 innings with an ERA of 2.81, winning 13 games. Andrew Cashner also pitched well when healthy, contributing 123 innings of 2.55 ERA performance. These are ace-worthy pitching efforts, from not just one but two of the team’s starting pitchers. But there was more: Ian Kennedy led the team with 201 innings and the innings were of decent quality, resulting in a 3.63 ERA. Jesse Hahn and Odrisamer Despaigne also chipped in some solid work, keeping their ERAs in the 3.00s. Even Eric Stults, a Jamie Moyer wannabe, wasn’t terrible and was third on the team with 176 innings.
When A.J. Preller came to town, the pitching staff looked pretty decent. Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner were still around, and when Preller managed to land James “Big Game” Shields to the mix, things looked very promising indeed for 2015. Alas, the 2015 pitching staff surrendered 731 runs, a full 154 runs more than the team had surrendered in 2014. This development more than offset the improvement the team made in the offense in 2015, resulting in an even worse record for the team in 2015 than in 2014.
So… what in the hell happened???
2015: Homers, Homers, Homers
Well, one thing to note is that the configuration of Petco Park itself changed in 2015. A new section sponsored by one of San Diego’s ubiquitous microbrew companies was added behind the right field wall which meant that the right field fence was moved in by about 10 feet. The left field wall was also moved in, but not as much as right field had been. These changes made Petco Park not quite as much of a pitcher’s park as it had been. The park reduced offense by about 8% in 2015 rather than the 10% it had in previous seasons.
In conjunction with the park changes, the individual pitchers had very different years than they had in 2014. Take Tyson Ross for example. Actually… just kidding! Tyson Ross’s 2015 was very similar to his 2014. His ERA was slightly higher at 3.26, but the innings pitched was nearly identical, and Ross surrendered only 9 homers in 2015. Ross at this point was clearly the ace of the staff.
How about James “Big Game” Shields? Ah… here is where things start to unravel. Shields, coming off a solid year with Kansas City, picked 2015 to give up a career high 81 walks and a league leading 33 homers. Um, guess what? That’s not a good combination for success. Shields did (and still does) provide amazing durability (he has pitched over 200 innings for 9 straight years) and in 2015 pitched like a super-durable inning eating 3rd starter. Unfortunately, he is getting paid like an ace. One would expect better numbers in Petco Park from Shields even with the changed park configuration, considering he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Nevertheless, Shields does help a team, considering he pitches about 1/7 of a team’s innings every season, and most of the time, those innings aren’t disastrous. But, Shields’ homerific ways didn’t help the team as much as expected.
Next up: Andrew Cashner. Cashner was acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Anthony Rizzo, who has gone on to become a big star. Cashner has certainly had his moments of brilliance, especially in 2014, but he is more high maintenance than your standard hot college girlfriend. There is always some ouchie, or whatever, causing Cashner to spend inordinate amounts of time on the disabled list. His 2014 was great, when he pitched, which was about 3/5 of the season. In 2015, Cashner pitched a career high 184 innings. That’s the good news. The bad news: Those innings weren’t so great. Cashner was way too hittable, giving up 200 hits in those innings, as well as 66 walks. That resulted in a career high hits-given-up rate and walks-given-up rate. Cashner did keep the homers in check, giving up just 19 of them. The result was a rather mediocre 4th starter season when the Padres were hoping for some ace quality work.
Ian Kennedy was also disappointing. The reason for his downfall was easy to figure out: in 2014, Kennedy gave up 16 homers. In 2015, he gave up 31. All of his other numbers were about the same. Alas, those homers really hurt Kennedy’s season. His ERA jumped over half a run.
And finally: Odrisamer Despaigne. This is where disaster really struck. Despaigne went from being a very useful fifth starter to becoming a dumpster fire. To be fair, Despaigne wasn’t expected to pitch as much as he did because china doll Brandon Morrow was expected to be the team’s 5th starter. And Morrow started off great in his first 5 starts. Then, like usual, something in Morrow’s body went sproing and that was that. Morrow never did return in 2015 (how shocking!). So poor Odrisamer Despaigne was thrown into the breach. The result: His homers-given-up rate doubled, his hits-given-up rate increased by 50%, and his ERA paid the price, increasing by over 2 full runs. Despaigne is a junkball pitcher of the first order. In 2014, he was able to fool most of the people, most of the time. In 2015, the jig was up; he was fooling hardly anybody. The Padres had a huge hole at 5th starter all season and were unable to fill it with Despaigne or the likes of Robbie Erlin or Casey Kelly.
So, Tyson Ross held serve, but Kennedy, Cashner, and Despaigne all regressed and Shields had one of his poorest years also. Some of this was due to bad outfield defense (I’m talking about you Matt Kemp). Some of it was due to Petco Park being a bit more hitter friendly. However, most of it was likely due to the random vagaries of pitchers in general. The homers given up is especially alarming. Not even better outfield defense can fix that problem.
So, what about 2016?
2016: Come Back Soon Tyson Ross
Ian Kennedy was let go and Odrisamer Despaigne was kindly asked to depart as well. The Big Three, Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Andrew Cashner are still around. New additions include Colin Rea from the minors and Drew Pomeranz via a trade. Cesar Vargas from the minors is also available to help fill in the gaps. Robbie Erlin was supposed to be that guy, but his injury history didn’t inspire much confidence that he could survive the season, and as expected, Erlin is now unavailable for awhile.
Right away, Erlin, and then Vargas were needed because disaster struck: Tyson Ross, started one game, pitched terribly, and has been on the disabled list ever since. Ross is the ace of the staff, and he has been quite reliable in the past, so this is an unlucky break and very tough for a team to overcome.
James Shields has had a pretty good start. Once again, he is on pace to top 200 innings and he has reduced the number of homers given up. Shields is looking like a solid #2 starter right now. The big surprise is who the functional ace has been so far: Drew Pomeranz! Pomeranz was a first round pick many years ago and has bounced around a bit, previously pitching for Colorado and Oakland. Yet, he is only 27 years old and of course, pitching in Coors Field as a rookie is a nearly impossible assignment for any pitcher. Pomeranz is probably breathing much easier seeing the environs of Petco Park around him, and realizing, hey, this is *not* Coors Field, woo hoo! It would not be a surprise if the improvement from Pomeranz is real. This was a great pick up by Preller, possibly the best move he’s made since he was hired. The one concern is that right now, Pomeranz actually leads the league in fewest hits given up (per nine innings). There is probably some luck involved with Pomeranz’s miniscule hit rate, but even with some correction, Pomeranz will likely contribute solid work for the Padres this season.
Andrew Cashner once again has spent some time on the disabled list this season, and once again, his numbers have been disappointing. The talent is clearly there, but the consistency and command just aren’t. His ridiculous beard isn’t helping things either. Cashner appears to be doing about what he did last year, but less of it because of his typical lack of durability. The Padres won’t win more games because of Cashner this season, but at least it appears that he won’t be losing them anymore than he did last year either.
Colin Rea was one of the Padres top 10 prospects last season and he has now graduated to the big club. He is about as meh as can be. He doesn’t have great stuff or superior command. He is durable however, and he isn’t terrible, which definitely has value. The Padres have had trouble with pitcher durability so Rea will be welcome in that department. There is also a chance for further growth as Rea learns his craft and gets major league pitching instruction, but at least for 2016, Rea is not going to lead the team to the promised land all by himself.
Cesar Vargas is nominally the 5th starter right now, but it won’t last. Vargas gets by on moxie and a bulldog mentality and you gotta love rooting for guys like this. But, eventually the league will figure him out and it will be painful to watch. It already is a bit painful, as Vargas has an ERA over 5.00. Unfortunately, this starting stint is likely to be the high point of Vargas’s major league career, that is, until he eventually settles in as low-leverage long reliever. Instead, the 5th starter to watch on this team is Christian Friedrich, who like his fellow teammate Pomeranz is a byproduct of the Colorado Rockies organization. Friedrich, like Pomeranz, was a highly regarded prospect who shot through the minor league system only to get pummeled in Coors Field. Like many a Rockie pitching prospect, the experience set him back for awhile. Eventually, the Rockies moved on and the Padres smartly snagged him. So far, the results in triple-A and now in the majors have been promising. In his short time with the Padres in the majors so far, he has yet to surrender a homer, but his control has been somewhat wobbly.
There is no one else of note in the high minors for the Padres, so this is what they must go forward with for 2016. It will really help if Tyson Ross can come back sooner rather than later from his injury (he’s expected back in early July). If he does, Ross, with Pomeranz and an improved Shields, could lead the Padres to solid pitching numbers this season. Without Ross, it will be difficult for the Padres to make any noise whatsoever this year. A.J. Preller is probably praying every day for Tyson Ross’ swift recovery because Ross’ return to the rotation sooner rather than later might determine whether Preller even has the GM job for 2017.

The Giants have a deep pen, but who should close?

Game Over, Man!
by Jim Silva

    If you don’t have guys who can throw 97 to 100 MPH then you don’t have a shut-down bullpen. While that’s not really true, it sure seems like an apt description of the belief system of most general managers in baseball these days. Look at the Dodgers (aborted) attempt to trade for Aroldis Chapman (average fastball velocity 99.5 MPH) and then the Yankees consummated trade for the hard-throwing closer even though he was likely to start the season on suspension. And it wasn’t just Chapman that teams gave up a lot of resources to acquire. The A’s spent lots of money on Ryan Madsen (average fastball velocity 94.2 MPH), the Astros gave up prospects to get Ken Giles (average fastball velocity 96.5 MPH), and the Rockies sent a young starting outfielder to the Rays to acquire Jake McGee (average fastball velocity 94.5 MPH) just to name a few of the off-season moves that happened since the last World Series.
    Hunter Strickland is the Giants requisite bullpen flame thrower humping it up there with an average fastball of 96.9. But Strickland isn’t the closer – yet. Last season, Strickland’s first full season in the majors, saw him mostly used as the setup man and the 7th inning guy (45 of his 55 appearances). The 6’4” righty from Zebulon, Georgia struck out opposing hitters in bunches, showed excellent control (1.8 walks per nine), forced batters to beat the baseball into the ground at a 69% rate, and limited home runs to the tune of 0.7 per nine innings pitched. It was hard to get on base at all against Strickland as he managed a WHIP of 0.78 last season. He is the scariest pitcher the Giants have in relief and is very likely to close games for them someday. Only manager Bruce Bochy knows when that day will come as he is the one who decided that Santiago Casilla will start the season as he ended last season – wearing the closer mantle.
    Casilla’s game changed dramatically last season, or so say his peripherals. Castilla has been closing games somewhat regularly since 2012 when he was 31. That’s pretty old to finally be anointed the closer, but it took him a long time to develop. He mostly sported ERAs in the 4’s and 5’s during his last three seasons with the A’s. He put it all together his first year with the Giants (2010) and has kept his ERA in the 1’s and 2’s since then. While that sounds consistent, Casilla is the scary variety of closer who is all over the place with his control and his home run rate. In 2014, Casilla’s strikeout rate was 6.9 per nine, but his career low walk rate of 2.3 per nine gave him a career best strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.0. He also posted an ERA of 1.70 and a FIP of 3.18 while allowing a career low 5.4 hits per nine and an excellent home run rate of 0.5 per nine. He wasn’t the full-time closer but managed to save 19 games with four blown save chances. He threw in ten holds for good measure, clearly proving his value in high-leverage situations.
    Last season Casilla finished 55 games, appeared in 67, and recorded 38 saves while blowing six saves. His strikeout rate jumped from 6.9 in 2014 to 9.6 in 2015, an unusual jump without small sample size to explain it. The strikeouts are the good news. Unfortunately, and here is one explanation for the blown saves, his walk rate jumped from 2.3 per nine to 3.6 per nine while his home run rate also increased from 0.5 per nine to 0.9 per nine innings pitched. Walking more batters and then giving up almost twice as many long balls is a recipe for an increase in ERA and Casilla’s jumped from 1.70 to 2.79. While ERA is not the best measure for relievers, his FIP (his ERA based on events he controlled) also jumped – from 3.18 to 3.63. At 35 Casilla still throws hard and mixes in a curve and slider 23% and 15% of the time respectively last year, so it’s not like he was lobbing grapefruits up there or surviving on guile. Still, with Strickland behind him he can’t get off to a bad start and assume that the job will still be his. There was even noise that he might lose his closer’s role in spring training but even with a good spring by Strickland that didn’t happen.
    Those lucky Giants – the closer race isn’t a two horse contest. Sergio Romo had a head lock on the closer role for 2013 and parts of the two seasons on either side of that, but lost it to Casilla when he slumped in 2014. Last year Romo put up a monster season in the pen posting his second highest strikeout to walk rate at 7.10 which is quite excellent. He also dropped his home run rate down to 0.5 jacks per nine, showing his normal great control only walking 1.6 batters over nine, and putting up his best strikeout numbers in the last four seasons by fanning 11.1 batters per nine. Romo is 33 and pint-sized for a pitcher at 5’11” and is a soft-tosser averaging 87.5 MPH on his heater last year. He throws his slider 59% of the time and it is a true swing-and-miss pitch.
    As everyone knows by now, the Giants have the whole “Win the Series in even years” thing going on, and George Kontos has a “get lit up by home runs in odd years” thing, and alternately a “keeps the ball in the park in even years” thing – weird I know. Last season, being an odd year, Kontos allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings. Based on his other numbers it seems like there was a method to his madness so predicting the same thing this year might not be crazy. Kontos’ peripherals make it look like he consciously pitched to contact more. His career walk rate is 2.4 after a season where he walked a career low 1.5 batters per nine – his first time under 2.5 per nine. Along with that he fanned a career low 5.4 batters per nine, down from a career rate of 7.2 per nine. Interestingly his hit rate was 7.0, under his career number of 7.6 so whatever he changed seemed to work. Kontos throws hard enough (average fastball sitting at 91.2 MPH last season), but he throws it about as often as his cutter and a bit more than his slider, which he throws about a quarter of the time. Kontos had 28 multiple inning outings in his 73 appearances so he is the workhorse of the pen. He is probably the only one of the four pen mainstays who isn’t in the mix for the closer’s job this season, but he still provides a lot of value in relief.
    The other arms in the pen to start the season were Chris Heston and Javier Lopez. Heston, at 27 –  the only member of the pen under 30 – spent last season holding down a rotation spot and doing it admirably, including one memorable game for the whole Heston family – an 11 strikeout, no walk, no-hitter where he drilled three batters. Heston doesn’t throw particularly hard but is still “effectively wild” at times as evidenced by his three hit batters in that no-no. Heston is likely to end up in the rotation at some point this season because the back of the rotation is injury-prone, and if he can reprise his first half of 2014 then the Giants won’t miss a beat. It’s hard to say what Heston will give the Giants as a reliever because he has almost never – even in the minors – pitched out of the pen.
    Lopez is the requisite LOOGY – he is in the pen to get out the lefties. Lopez faced lefties twice as often as he faced righties. That is as it should be because Lopez allowed a .177 on-base percentage and .130 slugging to lefties he faced while righties went strong against him posting an OPS of .734. Interestingly he spins his weird lefty voodoo mostly with his gentle fastball clocked at an average velocity of 84.5 MPH which he throws 74 % of the time and mixes with the occasional cutter (19% of the time) – not the typical menu for short relievers. At 38 years old, Lopez is still great at what he does with the caveat that his exposure to righties be strictly limited.
    When you look at teams like the Royals who survived because their pen was so great in the 7th, 8th, and 9th, and you look at the Giants who have quietly done almost exactly the same things but with a much better (at least this season) starting rotation, you have to have a hard time betting against them in the NL West.

Do the Giants have the best top of the rotation in baseball this year?

MadBum, Johnny Beisbol, and The Shark In The House
by Jim Silva

    This was the off-season of free agent starting pitchers and the Giants jumped into the pool with their clothes on and their iPhone in their pocket. They signed not one, but two high-priced veteran arms to take the #2 and #3 spots in their rotation spending $130 million to ink Johnny Cueto for 6 years and another $90 million to tie up Jeff Samardzija through the 2020 season. Did they spend their money wisely or will Brian Sabean regret this off-season for committing so much of their resource pool to two guys who have better reputations than skill sets?
    Here is how the off-season starting pitcher market turned out. Listed below are the top ten starting pitchers, ordered by average salary, who signed free agent deals this off-season.
(data for salaries taken from spotrac.com)

Name
Age
Signing Team
Length of Deal
In Years
Total Dollars
Average Salary
David Price
30
Boston
7
217,000,000
31,000,000
Zack Greinke
32
Arizona
6
206,500,000
34,416,667
Johnny Cueto
30
San Francisco
6
130,000,000
21,666,667
Jordan Zimmerman
29
Detroit
5
110,000,000
22,000,000
Jeff Samardzija
31
San Francisco
5
90,000,000
18,000,000
Wei-Yen Chen
30
Miami
5
80,000,000
16,000,000
Mike Leake
28
St. Louis
5
80,000,000
16,000,000
Scott Kazmir
32
Los Angeles
3
48,000,000
16,000,000
Ian Kennedy
31
Kansas City
5
70,000,000
14,000,000
J.A. Happ
33
Toronto
3
36,000,000
12,000,000

A couple things stand out from a quick glance at this table. First of all nobody, other than the Giants, signed two of the top ten pitchers on the list. Also note that the two guys at the top of the list are making substantially more a year than the rest of the guys on the list who are mainly clustered around a median of $16 million a year. Does this mean that they are the two most valuable starters who were on the market this year? Let’s look at the table in a different way.

Name
Mean Innings Pitched 2013-2015
Mean WAR 2013-2015
Projected Innings
Zack Greinke
201
5.83
191.0
David Price
218
4.46
195.0
Jordan Zimmerman
205
4.03
181.0
Johnny Cueto
172
3.90
190.0
Mike Leake
200
2.47
177.0
Wei-Yen Chen
171
2.47
174.0
Scott Kazmir
177
2.03
170.0
Jeff Samardzija
216
1.63
189.0
J.A. Happ
141
1.50
160.0
Ian Kennedy
184
-0.17
164.0
If you order the table to reflect accumulated WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for each of the pitchers, then we see the order shift a bit with Greinke moving to the top, and Cueto and Samardzija dropping a spot or three. Greinke is clearly the best of the pitchers in this chart and Kennedy is a huge gamble, but in between there is a lot of variation from guys who regularly pitch a lot of innings – like Mike Leake, to guys who provide quality, but not necessarily innings – like Happ. Interestingly, Samardzija is the 5th highest paid, but in terms of WAR earned per season, he is third from the bottom.
    So what do you get when you buy the services of The Shark? You get durability for sure. His average of 216 innings pitched per season for the last three campaigns is quite a feat when teams like the Rockies didn’t have even a single pitcher break the 150 innings mark last season.  2014 was Samardzija’s best season and 2015 was easily his worst since he became a rotation regular. Obviously the White Sox traded for Samardzija hoping he would be the pitcher he was in 2014 and his 4.99 ERA was not what they thought would happen. Now the Giants are paying Samardzija to figure out what went wrong in Chicago and find his way back to the guy who in 2014 threw 219.67 innings, striking out 202 and walking a paltry 43 batters. His ERA of 2.99 and WHIP of 1.065 were the sort of numbers aces sport. Samardzija’s 2014 was a real representation of his growth as a starting pitcher. He still threw fastballs in the mid 90’s, but he showed real improvement in his control and kept the ball in the park as his home run rate dropped to 0.8 – the first season he managed a sub-1.0 home run per nine rate since he’d become a full-time starter. Shark’s projections have his control numbers staying steady, but his innings pitched and strike outs dropping off significantly. It is unlikely that the Giants will decrease his workload, which means that the Giants will probably get 200+ innings from the first three spots in their rotation (including Samardzija’s). With his improved control and no health issues, Samardzija will beat his projections throwing half his games in a pitcher’s park. 200+ quality innings will make The Shark a good sign and possibly a bargain.
    Johnny Cueto is a five-pitch pitcher who relies most heavily on his fastball which he throws in the low to mid-90’s and uses about half the time, a cutter he uses about 20% of the time, and a change that he surprises the hitter with around 15% of the time. He is an ace for most teams in baseball, and was highly coveted last season when he was with the Reds. His time in Kansas City was not what anyone expected and it hurt his market value in free agency. There were rumors about him being injured, but anyone who watched him pitch the second game of the World Series and throw a 122 pitch complete game where he only allowed two hits would have a hard time explaining what kind of injury allows that kind of performance. Cueto was not as sharp or consistent with KC as he had been before the trade but assuming the Giants did their due diligence before signing him, then they should be getting a guy who throws a lot of innings – 243.67 in 2014 – with his 3 year average in the table suffering from his DL stint due to a lat strain in 2013. He suppresses home runs reasonably well (home run per nine rates under 1.0 each year but one since 2010), with great peripherals (strikeout to walk ratios over 3.7 each of the last two seasons). In short, he is a beast and the Giants took advantage of the rumors about his health to sign him for less than he would have otherwise been offered.
    One odd statistical bump could account for Cueto’s less than ace-like performance in his short time in KC. His BABIP (batting average on balls that hitters put into play) was freakishly (for him) high. Cueto’s BABIP was .343 in his 13 starts for the Royals although it has never been above .298 during any other season. His 2015 BABIP before the trade was .234 by comparison. There may have been something going on hampering Cueto from making the adjustment to the American League, but more than anything he was just plain unlucky.
    You know it is going to be an interesting season for your team when we haven’t even talked about the ace of the pitching staff and the two guys we have talked about are costing $19.8 million this season alone. Madison Bumgarner is the undisputed ace of the Giants based on his post-season heroics more than anything else. What he did in the 2014 playoffs and World Series will never be forgotten by Giants fans. But his regular season portfolio is a pretty glorious sight as well and it just keeps getting better. Best yet, Mad Bum is only 26. It seems like he should be older because he made 18 starts as a 20 year old and has made no fewer than 31 starts every year since he start drinking legally – that’s five seasons in a row. Over that time period he has pitched at least 201 innings, seen his WHIP drop each season from 1.212 in 2011 to 1.008 last season. Each of the last two seasons his strikeout-to-walk ratio has increased from 3.21 to 5.09 to 6.00 last season. His strikeouts per nine have also climbed from 8.3 in 2012 to 9.6 last season. Bumgarner has also kept his home runs per nine under 1.00 each of the last three seasons. Yeah – basically he is great and still improving. So when will the upward growth stop? Hard to know. 26 is still young for a starting pitcher. That could mean that he will keep getting better for a few years or it might mean that he is going to start declining earlier because of all the mileage on his arm at a young age. The cherry on top is that Madison can swing the bat. He has two seasons in a row with an OPS above .740 smacking 9 home runs over the last two seasons in 159 plate appearances. Wait! Here’s something bad! He had an awful spring training. Not that it counts or matters as he still maintained good peripherals, except for the home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Nothing to see here folks – move along.
    Let’s stop for a moment. There has been a lot of talk this off-season about who has the best starting rotation in baseball. The Diamondbacks made moves to bolster their rotation and have received a lot of love from the baseball world for their top three. The Mets have the young guns and the depth. The Rays seem to always have rotation depth and some stud like Chris Archer pitching the opener. If the Mets are everybody’s gold standard of what a starting rotation should look like, let’s remember than not one of the top three hurlers in their rotation hit the 200 innings pitched mark, unlike each of the top three starters in the Giants rotation. I know there were reasons that the Mets pitchers needed to be protected a bit, but that is a factor when assessing a rotation too, or at least it should be. When the Mets top three can surpass 600 innings, assuming they can do it while maintaining their same high standards that they set last season, then perhaps they can lay claim to the title. But until they have actually done it and we aren’t just talking about their potential and one great season, then San Francisco’s top three (here it comes) is the best trio at the top of any rotation in baseball.
    Sadly, nobody pitches 400 innings anymore (Where is Addie Joss when you need him?), so most teams need to employ a fourth, fifth, and sometimes a sixth starter. Like almost every team in baseball there is quite a drop off from the 3rd man in the rotation to the 4th. Jake Peavy averaged just under six innings per start in 2015 (5.8) with a fastball that averaged 89 MPH. The 34 year old Cy Young Award winner (2007) who used to strike out a ton of batters is no longer that guy. He has kept his strikeout-to-walk rate in the threes by reducing his walk rate as his strikeout rate dropped – a heady trick. He still punches out 6.3 batters over nine, but he also gives up a lot of fly balls, so it’s good that he pitches in San Francisco. His home run rate more than doubles when he leaves the Bay Area to pitch but overall was 1.0 per nine innings last season. His ERA+ (ERA adjusted to his park and relative to the rest of the league was 105 – slightly better than league average, and his FIP (ERA based only on what the pitcher controls) was 3.87, slightly worse than his ERA of 3.58. Manager Bruce Bochy has announced that he was not going to push Peavy as deep into starts in 2016 as he has in the past based on his stats that show his ERA in the 6th inning is 7.71 which is good compared to his ERA of 15.75 in the 7th inning. Peavy gets by with deception nowadays and becomes less David Copperfield-esque the third time hitters see him in a game. Having guys throw over 200 innings in the first, second, and third spots in the rotation saves the bullpen so that when Peavy, occupying the fourth spot comes along they can pitch a couple more innings of relief. Not only did their free agent signings make the top of the rotation better, they should also make Peavy more effective because he gets to hand the ball over to the pen before blowing up.
    What the hell is wrong with Matt Cain? Homey was a beast through 2012 picking up Cy Young votes three years in a row and hitting the 200 innings mark in six straight seasons through 2012. He has been nicked up for a while now which might explain the ugly trends in his numbers. While his strikeouts-to-walk ratios have remained above two (just barely last year at 2.05), Cain’s hits-per-nine ratio, WHIP, hits-per-nine, and home runs per nine have increased each season since 2012. The annual watch for the return of the prodigal pitcher must be getting old for Giants fans by now. Even the Baseball Prospectus projections are believers in Matty.  IF he is healthy, and IF he can return even halfway to his old form, then the Giants are going to have a really fun season. His last spring outing was solid and he lasted into the 6th so maybe Cain is no longer an ace, but an innings eater – and that would be just fine on this staff this year because they already have three aces. Peavy and Cain just need to get out there every fifth day and last into the 5th or 6th inning so they don’t burn through the pen.
    Waiting in the pen for godawful things to happen to the other starters will be Chris Heston. Heston’s rookie year in the bigs last season was, um, interesting. The 6’3” righty threw a no-hitter after joining the rotation. Heston wasn’t expected to be lights out, but he was for the first half of the season. Here is a wee table to show how he threw a rod in the second half last year, and if you look not too closely, you might also see why.

Starts
Innings Pitched
Walks/9
Home Runs/9
WHIP
ERA
First Half
18
111.67
2.4
0.48
1.200
3.39
Second Half
13
66
4.6
1.36
1.500
4.91
   
Heston’s control went the way of the Dodo with his walk rate almost doubling, leading to more home runs and more home runs with men on base, which of course means an ERA a run and a half higher. Aside from the second half of last year and 19 starts at triple-A Fresno in 2013, Heston’s control hasn’t been a huge problem. His minor league walk rate was mostly in the 2.0 to 2.7 per nine range. And aside from that tough 2013, Heston has limited home runs to below 1.0 per nine innings – his career rate is around 0.7 including both big league and minor league numbers. This spring was rocky for Heston, but his strikeout rate was up and his walk rate was down so… Heston’s game isn’t about strikeouts, it’s about inviting batters to ground out and keeping the ball on this, the grassy side of the fence. If he joins the rotation at some point and makes 20+ starts, he should be able to reproduce his overall numbers from last season or even best them unless his control again eludes him.
    Both Cueto and Samardzija should produce strong performances this year pitching in AT&T park backed by a good defensive team that will score runs for them. The Giants rotation additions will be a stabilizing force on the entire pitching staff allowing the bullpen to be fresh for the post-season. Brian Sabean and crew did a smart thing jumping in on Cueto and Samardzija when they were in “buy low” positions. The quality innings they contribute just might be the driving force that pushes the Giants to the top of the division and, with some luck, far into the post-season.

Do the Diamondbacks have enough in the pen to support their expensive rotation?

Submarines in The Desert
By Jim Silva

    If you’ve ever played whiffle ball – real whiffle ball, with the ball that has holes on only one hemisphere –  against someone who was actually trying to beat you, then you have probably faced someone who throws similarly to how the Diamondbacks closer, Brad Ziegler, throws. Ziegler isn’t the first major league pitcher to drop down below his waist to throw, but he is one of the most successful submariners currently pitching in the majors. It’s hard to imagine what a slider looks like coming from Ziegler, but he throws one, along with a sinker and a change. Most closers step to the mound and try to blow you away, not entice you to beat the ball into the dirt, but Ziegler got batters to ground out 74% of the time last year and only struck out 4.8 batters per nine. It is hard to know how to look at peripherals from a pitcher like Ziegler since his game plan is to get the batter to hit the ball, but hit it weakly and at someone’s ankles. Do we care how many guys he fans? Not really. His 2.2 walks per nine is awfully pretty though – that we care about – and his 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio is acceptable as well. So when we talk about peripherals from submarine pitchers, perhaps we should look at ground ball rates, walk rates, and home run rates to make predictions. Ziegler allowed 3 home runs in his 68 innings of work which perfectly matches his career rate of 0.4 home runs per nine innings of work. So is it of concern that in Ziegler’s best year in the majors his strikeout rate per nine fell well below his career rate  of 5.9 per nine? When a pitcher has a year like Ziegler did it is important to look at how he did it, but his numbers, aside from an absurdly low .220 BABIP (batting on balls in play), were in line with his career numbers. The super low BABIP is of some concern, but if it rebounds to his career rate of .277, and he continues to limit balls leaving the park, then his filthy, grounder-inducing junk will continue to be effective and he could once again post a wicked DRA (a different measure of ERA that attempts to measure how many runs the pitcher really was responsible for) in the range of 2.27 like he did in 2015.
    Ziegler has most often been a setup guy because a pitcher who induces ground balls is exactly what you want when you have runners on base in double play position. Closers in today’s model usually enter the game with nobody on. It is likely that he will be the closer again after his excellent 2015 in the role. So who will be the setup man in 2016? Last year it was Daniel Hudson after Ziegler moved to the closer role. The late signing of Tyler Clippard gives Arizona some versatility and bullpen depth that will help them during the playoffs if they can manage to get there. It seems that every team is trying to shorten the game – employing multiple shutdown relievers so that if they have a lead going into the 6th the other team is doomed. The Diamondbacks aren’t being like all the other kids because Clippard and Ziegler aren’t flame throwing monsters. Clippard can turn it up to 92 or 93 and Ziegler tops out in the mid-80’s.
    To look at the rest of the Diamondbacks pen, let’s look at a fairly new statistic developed by the fine folks at Baseball Prospectus (BP). DRA (Deserved Runs Allowed) is a stat that would take the place of ERA in evaluating how effective a pitcher was. Whereas ERA is pretty simple (earned runs divided by innings pitched over nine), DRA is more fair and complicated as hell! It takes everything into account when deciding how many runs the pitcher is truly responsible for including unearned runs, the park, the situation he inherited when he entered the game, and more. BP also uses DRA to calculate WARP – the number of wins a pitcher is responsible for above what a replacement level pitcher would have given up – so we will use that when we look at the pitching staff in Arizona.
    If we look at Tyler Clippard, he had a DRA of 3.45 for 2015 in his two stops. His walks were up a bit over his career average – 3.9 walks per nine last season, with a career average of 3.7 walks per nine. He kept his hit rate per nine down at 6.2, just a tick over his career rate of 6.1 per nine. Basically, most of his numbers were consistent with what he had done in recent years except his strikeout rate. Historically Clippard had whiffed at least 10 batters per nine innings. In 2015 he only fanned 8.1 per nine. Last season dragged his career rate down to 9.8 strikeouts per nine. It is possible that the substantial drop in k’s portends a decline from the goggled reliever as his ground ball rate also dropped, but we will see what this season brings, pitching in the desert. He is only 31 and 2015 wasn’t a bad season, so if he bounces back he will likely get a chance to pitch the 8th and maybe even the 9th for Arizona.
    Andrew Chafin allowed a sterling 2.72 DRA in 2015. “Big Country” threw 75 innings in his 66 appearances with righties doing a bit better than lefties – a slash line of .225/.306/.325 versus righties and .182/.260/.264 versus lefties. With splits like that, it is no wonder the Diamondbacks used him for more than an inning at a time. Chafin is a fastball/slider two pitch guy who was mostly a starter in the minors. Since he can go more than an inning, he will likely be used that way. Why pull him when he can get lefties and righties out and save your bullpen? That probably makes him more valuable as the guy who can come in with a man on in the 6th, invite the hitter to ground into a double play – he had a 60% ground ball rate – and stay to pitch the 7th, handing the ball to the setup guy. Chafin doesn’t have the scary strikeout rates of the prototypical closer, but he is a valuable piece of the bullpen with his versatility and his effectiveness.
    Daniel Hudson finally made it back to the majors and survived a full season – his first full season since 2011. He is one of those rare animals with the fortitude to work back from two Tommy John surgeries. The former starter’s fastball played up in relief as he managed an average velocity of just over 96 mph. Hudson was the set-up man, but the last two innings of the game are a little more crowded this year with Tyler Clippard on the squad. Hudson’s DRA was 3.99 and he kept the ball in the park allowing 0.9 homers per nine innings. He gave up 1.32 runners per nine innings mostly based on giving up almost a hit per inning. His control was not as good as it was in his last full season. His walk rate jumped from 2.0 walks per nine innings when he started 33 games in 2011, to 3.3 per nine last season when he pitched in relief 64 times and started once. As a fly ball pitcher in Arizona, he needs to get his WHIP down to get his DRA down and remain stingy with the longballs. With another year away from surgery he could see enough improvement to end up in the closer’s role if either of the two guys ahead of him falters.
    At 25, many of us had no clue what we were doing with our lives. Randall Delgado however was having his second solid season in a row out of the Arizona pen. Here is an example of where ERA and DRA diverge sometimes. Delgado’s ERA in 2014 was 4.87, while his DRA was 3.66. In 2015 his ERA was more in line with his DRA – 3.25 versus 3.69. So if you look at the two seasons next to each other and remove ERA, it looks like the seasons were almost identical. His ERA may have been dramatically influenced by the pitchers around him or just bad luck in 2014. There are a lot of events that are out of the pitcher’s control that can negatively impact his ERA, but DRA takes a more steely-eyed look at everything that goes into runs scoring. In both 2014 and 2015 Delgado fanned at least 9 men per game. He also kept  his home run rate under 1.0 in both seasons, and fashioned hit rates per nine of 8.2 and 7.9 in 2014 and 2015. The knock on Delgado – and remember he is only 25 so there is room for growth – is that he has issued 4.1 free passes per nine innings in each of the last two seasons. If his hit rate goes up, with that walk rate, then he will have a hard time being effective.
    Poor Josh Collmenter. The guy was bounced from the rotation to the pen, back to the rotation and then back to the pen last season. But you can understand the Diamondbacks thinking. Collmenter has been better in relief, at least last season, but he can start and not get completely axe murdered in the role. As a starter, his slash line was .310/.329/.555 with a WHIP of 1.383. When he came out of the pen he allowed a slash line of .229/.284/.365 with a WHIP of 1.108. Guys like Collmenter are really valuable, especially in places like Coors Field or Chase Field where pitchers just don’t fare as well. You need that guy who can be useful out of the pen or jump in when a starter needs a rest or an injury occurs. There were a couple red lights that flashed for Collmenter last season. His strikeouts per nine dropped from 8.3 in 2013, to 5.8 in 2014, and dropped again to 4.7 last season while his home run rate spiked to 1.3 per nine innings last season. Collmenter is unlikely to get many chances to regain a spot in the rotation if his numbers continue those alarming trends.
    Enrique Burgos throws a fastball and a slider, each about half the time last season, and he used that combo to strike out 13.0 batters per nine innings last season in his rookie year. Life was exciting last year when Enrique jogged from the pen. When he wasn’t striking guys out he was allowing 9.0 hits per nine innings, and walking 5.0 per nine. He was perpetually walking the tightrope. The guy throws hard – an average fastball just a hair below 96 MPH, but his control is not major league ready. He sprinted through AA and AAA last season in spite of walk rates above 7.0 per nine, so another year in the minors trying to figure out where the ball is going would do him good. He has been groomed as a future closer and he helped a tiny bit last season in the bigs –  DRA of 4.18 and a WARP of 0.2. If the Diamondbacks want him to be a big league closer someday they need to let him finish cooking in Reno.
    The Diamondbacks are the hip pick to unseat the Dodgers in the West after a big off-season where they rebuilt their rotation and picked up some help for their bullpen. But they play in a pretty harsh park on pitchers (and a great one for hitters!), which means that they might consider handling their pitching staff a little differently than clubs in more neutral or pitcher-friendly parks do. The Diamondbacks finished in the bottom third of the National League in quality starts which means there was a lot of pressure on their pen to pull games out of the fire or even just finish games. They have a much better starting rotation this year, so that should help. But they also have a unique opportunity with two guys who have closed successfully before in Clippard and Ziegler, the incumbent. The Diamondbacks could try a dual closer model where Ziegler pitches more than an inning when he closes or sets up, and Tyler Clippard pitches a more traditional closer’s role but also functions as a traditional one-inning setup man when Ziegler closes. The idea would be to use Ziegler in double play situations, but to use Clippard when there is no one on first. Ziegler isn’t your stereotypical closer so why use him like one? Whether they try it or not, having two closers (and maybe even a third in Daniel Hudson) is a good idea on a team that struggles to get pitchers through the 5th, or just teams that play in a tough park on pitchers.

The Rockies bullpen for 2016 – it’s better than you think. No, really!

The Pen is Mightier…Than Last Year’s Pen
by Jim Silva

    Some nails, a fresh coat of paint, et viola – the Rockies have a new and improved bullpen. The new “secret” in baseball that everyone knows, appears to be that you can win by putting together a strong bullpen. The Royals did it, or so it seemed. So this off-season the Rockies stayed out of the starting pitcher free agent market and instead acquired some low cost, old guys who are former closers, then traded a starting left-fielder, Corey Dickerson, for a bona-fide, hard-throwing, young beast-man closer in Jake McGee. Did they do enough, and will it matter? What rebuilding team spends assets on a premier closer? News flash – the Rockies don’t want to be seen as a rebuilding team. Their actions show that they believe they are at the end of a rebuild and ready to start playing with the big boys, hence the trade for a closer.
    Jake McGee is a big lefty who tosses projectiles with celerity – the 95 to 98 mile an hour kind of celerity that scares the crap out of hitters – he nailed Chase Headley in the chin last season – an experience that would have caused most mortals not named Chase Headley to take an online accounting course, and retire from baseball. In spite of that slip, McGee has excellent control walking 2.0 and 1.9 hitters per nine innings in each of the last two seasons. Last season was a struggle for McGee from a health standpoint. He started late after recovering from having his elbow scoped, then missed time at the end of the year with a torn meniscus in his knee. He has already had Tommy John surgery (2008) and returned from that throwing hard. He mowed down 11.4 and 11.6 batters per nine innings in each of the last two seasons. McGee instantly becomes the closer for Colorado taking over from John Axford, who is now in the A’s pen. McGee was more commonly used as a setup guy and co-closer with the Rays, but unless he has a chance encounter with Bigfoot or is implanted with alien technology, he won’t suddenly fall apart with the new designation.
    McGee isn’t the only pitcher sporting a flame-thrower in the Rockies’ pen next season. Jairo Diaz can touch 100 with his fastball – and talk about scary – for most of his career he hasn’t been certain of the pitch’s destination once it left his hand. Finally, for a 21 game stretch at the end of last season, something worked. Whatever tweaks the Rockies, and pitching coach Steve Foster talked Diaz into trying, worked and Diaz kept his walks per nine innings to 2.8 while maintaining a strikeout rate of 8.5 per nine innings. It is reasonable to believe that Diaz would have been tried at closer had the Rockies not acquired McGee. How they use him now will be dictated by his control and manager Walt Weiss’ trust in the rest of Diaz’ pen-pals.
    Adam Ottavino was killing it in April of last season. In 10 appearances (10.33 innings) the tall righty stuck out 11.3 batters per nine innings while only walking 1.7. Both numbers were trending in the right direction for each of the last three seasons. Ottavino was looking like he might steal the closer’s job until his elbow went boom, and he got to experience Tommy John surgery. It is unclear how soon he will return – likely at some point in the first half of 2016 – and how good he will be when he returns. If he comes back close to where he was when he left, then the Rockies have three tough, hard-throwers to finish games. Part of the reason the Rockies had the worst bullpen in all of baseball (and football – you know – if they had bullpens too), was the loss of Ottavino. Getting him back, and adding McGee and a full season of Diaz will change the Rockies fortunes when they have a lead going into the 7th.
    The Rockies started their off-season with two signings that left some in the baseball world scratching their heads. For $3 million, the Rockies got 37 year old Chad Qualls, and for another $4.5 million, they picked up 33 year old Jason Motte. Qualls is as consistent as a reliever gets.  He gets about 60% of the batters he faces to beat the ball into the ground then run cussing toward first base. He strikes out somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5 batters per nine innings and walks about 2.3 per nine innings, although the last two seasons have seen his walk rate drop below two. It is a common refrain that pitchers who induce a lot of ground balls have the most success in Colorado. Qualls gives the Rockies bullpen depth, a groundball machine, and less meaningfully – a guy who used to be a closer back in 2011. Even though Qualls is 37, he remains consistent and should be able to handle the challenge of Coors Field. If he can’t, at least he was relatively inexpensive and might be a piece they can flip for a middling prospect at the trade deadline.
    Jason Motte was also a closer once, and has a formidable, dark beard that makes him look like the dwarf, Gimli. I’m not sure if Motte is a skilled miner or can wield a battle axe, but as a relief pitcher he was fearsome, shooting flames with his speed ball of doom and slider of Nimgar. Sadly, our hero was felled by Lord Thomas of John, and he hasn’t been the same since. Not all pitchers bounce back from Tommy John surgery in a year, but last season ended early for Motte with shoulder pain so it wouldn’t be wise to count on him for any heroics. That said, if he comes back to a touch more than where he was before he was shut down last season, he will give the Rockies a serviceable bullpen arm, and shorten the game for the starting pitchers. In the meantime, it is reasonable to expect the 3 to 1 strikeout to walk rate that he put up last season in Wrigley. His 3.61 FIP (ERA independent of fielding), and his league average park-adjusted ERA from last season would have been quite useful for the Rockies last year. If that’s all they get, then they should be content. It’s not like they are paying him to be the one ring to rule them all.
    At the time the Rockies signed Boone Logan, he was just coming off two seasons with the Yankees where he was a monster, striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings with FIPs in the threes and hits per nine in the sevens. He also did two things that should have given the Rockies the jibblies at his signing. He walked a bunch of guys, 3.67 and 3.82 per nine innings in 2012 and 2013 respectively, and let batters launch the ball toward space at a high rate to become a souvenir on the other side of the fence – 1.0 and 1.6 home runs per nine in the same time span. So when Logan came to Colorado for his first Coors Field experience and compiled a 6.84 ERA, gave up 2.2 home runs per nine innings, and walked 4.0 men per nine innings of work, the Blake Street faithful shouldn’t have been too surprised. Ugly numbers – but he also struck out 11.5 hitters per nine innings, so it looked like the beast was in there, but confused. Last year, the world went back to spinning closer to its normal direction for Boone. Still pumping a mid-90’s fastball, he again struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings but managed to keep the ball in the park, allowing only 0.9 long balls per nine innings. The walks continued to plague him as he allowed 4.3 men to amble to first base unperturbed. Logan looked a lot like the guy the Rockies thought they’d signed, as his FIP plummeted from 5.13 to 3.62, matching his FIPs from his days in the Bronx – 3.67 in 2012 and 3.82 in 2013. So if that’s what the Rockies wanted, then that is exactly what they got. His hits allowed per nine innings were up from his New York days, but that is to be expected in Coors Field. Logan faced almost exactly the same number of righties as he did lefties even though lefties put up an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .602, while righties waxed him at a rate of .909. With the improved bullpen depth, Walt Weiss might consider using Logan as a lefty specialist to maximize his value.
    25 year old Scott Oberg had pitched a total of 107.67 innings professionally coming into 2015. In all of those innings pitching in short relief, he had allowed a total of seven home runs. Last season, pitching at AAA and in the majors, Oberg gave up 10 home runs in 66.33 innings. Until last season he had never allowed more than 7.2 hits per nine innings – last season he allowed 15.8 in a short stay in AAA and 8.9 in the majors. The righty has posted ever-shifting peripherals with a strikeout to walk rate at all of his stops in the following order: 4.83, 2.26, 3.50, 5.50, and in his major league audition that lasted 58.33 innings his rate was 1.42. For many young pitchers there is an extended break-in period as they get used to how their pitches work at altitude and what adjustments they have to make to succeed in Denver. Looking at Oberg’s season by month, his home run rate dropped off in the last two months and his other stats improved as well. He gave up only two home runs to the last 120 batters he faced – none to the last 50. If the decreased home run rate holds then maybe Oberg will turn into a useful piece in a veteran bullpen. If not, he will get a chance to make himself useful while toiling for the Isotopes of Albuquerque.
    Another arm that the Rockies will likely put to use in their pen is Justin Miller. Last season, he was one of the more useful arms to pitch in relief. Like almost everyone in the Rockies pen, Miller throws hard – up to the mid-90’s. Not a ground ball pitcher, Miller still kept the ball in the park allowing only two home runs in 33.3 innings pitched. He put up a spectacular strikeout rate, fanning 10.3 batters per nine innings. His control was solid and he just didn’t allow batters to get hits, with a walk rate of 3.0 per nine innings, and a hits per nine innings mark of 5.7. His FIP was a spectacular 2.65, but the question is can he repeat his 2015 numbers or even come close? Interestingly his numbers look remarkably similar to his 2014 minor league numbers so perhaps this is a sign of things to come. Miller has never started a professional game so the Rockies are unlikely to be able to stretch him out, but in short stints he can contribute to the new, deep Rockies pen.
    There are a lot of ifs for the 2016 season, but the pen will undoubtedly be better. With the improved starting pitching and the improved pen, the Rockies won’t suffer death by horrible pitching again this season.

What does the Rockies starting rotation look like for 2016?

Chuck and Duck?
by Jim Silva

    The talk in Colorado every off-season is about whether or not the Rockies will have enough pitching to compete. Interestingly, baseball talk shows, like MLB radio, often mention that the Rockies can’t sign a free agent pitcher because pitchers universally see pitching in Coors Field as career death. It’s been a long time since the Rockies signed a top-notch free agent starting pitcher. If you have lived in the Rocky Mountain area long enough then you probably remember the signing of Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle in an attempt to buy a starting rotation. If you remember that, then you’re unlikely to have forgotten how horribly it turned out – but was it really that bad?        
    In 2001, Mike Hampton pitched a good half season, making the All Star team, but then he allowed a .953 OPS (on-base plus slugging) for the second half, basically turning everyone he faced into Willie Mays (Mays had a career .941 OPS). His second (and last) season in Colorado was even worse as his ERA jumped from 5.41 to 6.15. Ok, so Hampton didn’t work out. The undersized lefty (he is 5’10) walked a decent number of guys before he got to Coors field – 4.1 per nine innings for the Mets in 2000 – and that didn’t change in Colorado. He also wasn’t the kind of pitcher to limit the number of hits he gave up, although that number increased with the Rockies, especially during his second season. What changed the most was the number of home runs that he allowed. Since his rookie season, Hampton had kept his home runs allowed per nine innings under 1.0. In fact, in the two seasons before coming to Denver, he posted home run rates of 0.5 and 0.4. His two seasons pitching at altitude saw those numbers jump to 1.4 in 2001, and 1.2 in 2002. Combine that with the walks, and you have a pitching stew that tastes like the bottom of your shoe. It probably should not have been a surprise that Hampton wouldn’t work out based on what he brought to the table.
    Denny Neagle signed the same year as Hampton, making quite a splash for the young team. Neagle had pitched for five teams by the time he made his way to the Mile High City, making the All Star team twice and garnering votes for the Cy Young twice (finishing 8th and 3rd). Unlike Hampton, Neagle gave up home runs at his previous stops like a guy –  well – like a guy who gave up a lot of home runs. For his career he averaged 1.2 long balls per nine innings, allowing 1.9 per nine in 1999 and giving up 31 home runs in 2000.  His walk rates were better than Hampton’s over his career – 2.8 per nine innings for Neagle and 3.6 per nine for Hampton. Still, who thought it would work to bring a guy into Coors Field – a notorious launching pad – who gave up home runs at a rate of more than one a game? And yet it did, for the most part. Neagle’s FIP (his ERA if you remove events he can’t control, like fielding) was 5.63 and 4.90 in the two seasons before he arrived in Colorado, and in his first two seasons with the Rockies it was 4.81 and 5.00. He blew out his elbow and was done pitching the next season, but for two years Neagle gave the Rockies exactly what his most recent stats said he would.
    It’s one thing for pitchers to shun contract offers from the Rockies for fear that their ERA will balloon and they will be unable to find a job after a stint in Colorado. It is quite another for the Rockies to be gun shy about signing free agent pitchers because of the belief that it won’t work out. Rockies management would never say out loud that they are afraid to sign free agent pitchers, so this might just be one of those things that sports talk guys invent to have something to talk about to fill 24 hours of baseball talk. It just seems that a team that struggles so much with pitching would always be in the conversation for starting pitchers during free agent season, and you just don’t hear them being in the mix for the big guys. This off-season the Rockies signed two guys for their bullpen and traded for another, but were not prominently mentioned in the discussions for the high or even mid-profile starting pitchers who were on the market. At some point the Rockies will either need to develop quality starting pitchers, trade for them, or sign them as free agents.
    The Rockies have gone the way of development for a few seasons now, and have a few arms who have put in their time in the minors and are ready to try their hand at pitching at over 5000 feet. There are also a couple of kids in process who look like they could be really good eventually. In 2016 though, the rotation is likely to be anchored by a guy who moved around a lot before he succeeded, and came up in another system – Jorge De La Rosa. The last three seasons, De La Rosa has crafted ERA+s (park adjusted earned run average relative to the league) of 112, 139, and 134, where 100 is what you would expect from a league-average pitcher. He has now achieved that six times in Colorado, making him one of the few pitchers who can claim to have succeeded long-term pitching in the thin, mountain air. Since returning from Tommy John Surgery in 2012, the 6’1 lefty from Monterrey, Mexico has reduced his walk rate with three seasons of 3.3, 3.3, and 3.9 – all under his career rate of 4.1 free passes per game. He has notched at least 26 starts in each of the three seasons post-surgery, and should hit that mark again if he can remain healthy. 32 starts for De La Rosa doesn’t mean 200+ innings – it never has. In his two 32-start seasons he has hit right around 185 innings. You will see a trend here, as De La Rosa led the team in innings pitched in 2015 with 149. If he hits his projection next season, he will amass around 170 innings pitched. If De La Rosa throws 170 innings he will help out the bullpen, and hopefully not lead the team again as he is 34.
    Behind the consistent De La Rosa, there are a lot of questions. Chad Bettis is likely to make 30 starts for the Rockies and if he manages even a little growth, it will give the Coloradans one of the better 1-2 punches at the top of the rotation that they’ve had in a few years. Bettis made eight starts in the minors before coming up to stay. He made 20 more starts for the Rockies from that point on. Bettis stayed healthy last season, and finally showed success in the majors posting an ERA+ of 110. Like De La Rosa, Chad walks about three per nine, and allows about a home run a game. The two hurlers also have similar strikeout per nine innings numbers with both men sitting in the seven to eight range. What Bettis doesn’t have is history, as 2015 was his first major league season with positive value. His splits – first half of the season versus second half – look like he was getting better as the season wore on (his ERA actually was better in the second half – 4.91 in the first half versus 3.18 in the second half), implying that his 2015 numbers weren’t a fluke, but a display of actual growth. Bettis is 26 so he could be just what the Rockies need – a young, controllable starting pitcher.
    Jonathan Gray is a 6’4 righty, who throws hard – his peak fastball comes in around 97.4 MPH according to Baseball Prospectus – surfaced late last season and put up decent peripheral stats, like his 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He also kept his home runs per nine a tick under 1.0 (.9), and his peripherals for the big club were in line with what he did in AAA. Not everything came up roses for Gray as he gave up five and a half runs per game for an ERA+ of 85, but learning to pitch in the majors at Coors Field is as hard as it gets. The Rockies should be happy with his first effort for the parent club, and be patient with the results. This season the Rockies will look for him to improve upon his debut, and hope he works 170-plus innings to help them stabilize their rotation.
    After those three, it gets pretty dicey. If Eddie Butler grabs the 4th spot and hangs onto it, that will be a good sign for the Rockies, because Butler was on track to be a rotation stalwart before shoulder injuries ruined his 2014 season. Last year, his numbers looked more like 2014 than his stellar climb to AA in 2013. Butler posted strikeouts per nine innings above 8.0 at each stop in 2013 while cranking out mid-90’s fastballs. 2014 and 2015 saw that strikeout number fall to just above 5.0 in the minors, and a sickly 1.7 with the parent club. Butler’s walk rates were solid in 2013, including walks per nine innings of 2.8 at the high A level, and 2.0 in AA. Last season that number bumped up to 3.6 in AAA and 3.9 in the majors. Butler seemed lost all season, but at 24 the Rockies hope he can come all the way back from injury and find his command. Nobody can succeed in the big leagues when they only strike out two more men than they walk (44 strikeouts to 42 walks in 2015). He is only 25 so there is some time, but he needs to come at least part of the way back this season to remain in the Rockies’ plans.
    Tyler Chatwood is now 26, and the last time he threw a baseball in anger in a major league park he was 24 and trying to build on a previous solid campaign in the majors. Ulnar collateral ligaments are bastards, and few people know that like Chatwood, who has had his replaced twice. The procedure known as Tommy John surgery has become commonplace for pitchers, and is almost a developmental milestone these days. There are now many pitchers in the majors who have had the procedure and have experienced success post-surgery. What teams are starting to see now are pitchers who have had the surgery twice. This is relatively new territory, and it is unknown how much mileage pitchers can get from round two of elbow reconstruction. Chatwood came over from the Angels in 2011 for catcher, Chris Iannetta, and at 22 started 12 games for the Rockies. The following season, Chatwood proved himself up to the challenge of pitching at altitude, posting an ERA+ of 142 in 20 starts. In 2014 Tyler only managed four starts before returning to the surgeon. It was a devastating blow for the Rockies, who it seemed had found a solid, mid-rotation youngster whom they could control for years to come. Chatwood had shown good growth each year.
Season
WHIP (hits + walks/innings
Strikeout to walk ratio
Strikeouts per 9 innings
2011
1.669
1.04
4.7
2012
1.655
1.24
5.7
2013
1.428
1.61
5.3
2014
1.208
2.50
7.5

The table shows that Chatwood was striking out more batters, showing better control, and allowing fewer base-runners every season. If he can pick up where he left off – and again there is evidence that many pitchers have come all the way back from Tommy John surgery – then he could be a mainstay in the Rockies’ rotation, holding down the 2nd or 3rd spot. He will likely need some time to build his innings up, but counting on him for 160 innings this season is not a crazy dream.
    Several humans made starts for the Rockies last season, some of whom will be looking to do so again this season. David Hale, Jordan Lyles, Chris Rusin, and Tyler Matzek are the most likely candidates to garner starts in 2016, with Tyler Andersen representing the dark horse candidate. Hale is 28 and has posted decent peripherals – 7.0 k’s and 2.3 walks per nine innings last year in Colorado – but hung a 6.09 ERA on his stat sheet too, probably because of his WHIP of 1.468, and his home runs per nine innings of 1.6. Looking at his minor league numbers, it is hard to get a grip on what to expect. There are years with too many walks, other years giving up too many hits, and he got torched last season in Albuquerque. If the reduction in walks is real, and he can figure out how to hold onto the good peripherals while getting his home run rate closer to 1.0, then the Rockies might have something, although that is a lot of ifs.
    Matzek has some serious control problems, to the point where he can’t pitch effectively in any role at this point. That is a huge disappointment for the Rockies who got a solid 2014 in the rotation from the 24 year old. In 2014 Matzek, a 2009 first round pick, posted a 4.05 ERA for the Rockies, while reducing his walks per nine innings to 3.4 in 19 starts. Matzek is a big guy at 6’3, 230 who should be able to handle a substantial workload, so when he completely unravelled last season, the Rockies must have wrung their hands. Matzek has battled control issues for his entire career, but had made progress until the 2015 collapse. If the now-25 year old can get on top of his mechanics or whatever it is that caused him to lose the plate last year, then the Rockies have another solid, and possibly spectacular, starting pitcher. When he is on, Matzek strikes out batters by the truck-load, pumping mid 90’s fastballs with ease.
    Chris Rusin was a waiver wire pick up from the Cubs in 2014. Chicago was right about waiving him as he is eminently hittable. What he does, that the Rockies desperately needed last year, is eat innings, making 22 starts and notching 131.67 innings. He also kept his walk numbers down under 3.0 per nine innings. His ERA+ was 88 – not bad considering he gave up 11.6 hits and 1.3 long balls per nine innings. He is a good guy to have at AAA, because he can keep you from burning through the bullpen if other, more talented pitchers get hurt.
    Colorado was counting on Jordan Lyles to contribute innings last season, but the 24 year old only made 10 starts before emigrating to the disabled list with a season-ending toe injury. Lyles had made at least 22 starts each of the previous seasons – something the Rockies could have used desperately last year. He has yet to have a park adjusted ERA above 100 and some of his peripherals are moving in the wrong direction, so even though he is only 24 you have to wonder if he is ever going to become effective at anything other than eating innings. His walk rate has increased every season in the majors while his strikeout rate has trended downward at the same time. One positive note has been his home run rate per nine innings, which has dropped every season from 1.3 in 2011 to 0.4 in his 10 starts last year. If he can return to the form he showed in 2014 and maybe improve a tick, he could become a usable starter (damning with faint praise!). The injury was to his toe, not his arm, so as long as the toe healed there is no reason to expect that he won’t get back to where he left off – except for maybe some of those ominous peripherals! He is one guy on the Rockies who will be pulling for anyone other than Jose Reyes to play shortstop, because Lyles gives up a lot of ground balls.
    Spring training and the health of many Rockies pitchers, including his own, will decide whether Tyler Andersen will make the jump from AA to the majors in 2016. Andersen was a first round pick in 2011, and at 26 has performed well at every stop in the minors. The issue with Mr. Andersen has been health. The 6’4 lefty has made 20 starts in a season only twice and missed all of 2015, but also has never had a WHIP over 1.15, nor an ERA above 3.25. When he can pitch he does it quite well. All of his peripherals are excellent from his career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.5 to 1, to his home run rate – 18 in 328 innings. What Andersen hasn’t done is pitch at altitude. The Rockies AAA club is in Albuquerque at an elevation comparable to Denver’s. It is likely that Andersen would have pitched there at some point last season had he not suffered an elbow injury, so the true test will come next season. If he can maintain his excellent numbers – park translated of course – as he moves closer to heaven (and the International Space Station), then the Rockies could very well have a new top of the rotation pitcher on their club.
    It isn’t as bleak as it seems for the Rockies starting pitching, although the health dice have to come up in their favor a lot for them to have a decent rotation. It is always a gamble to predict good times for anyone pitching in Colorado, but the Rockies starting pitching will almost definitely be better than it was last season and could become a strength if the young first round picks can grab jobs and stay healthy. Look for a rotation of De La Rosa, Bettis, Chatwood, Lyles, and Andersen or possibly Butler, to be the best group top to bottom that the Rockies have run out there in several years. If, on the other hand, Hale and Rusin steal 20 to 30 of those starts, then the Rockies are in serious trouble.

An Update on The A’s, Who Can’t Seem To Sit Still!

The A’s Movin’ and Shakin’

by Jim Silva

Well, what do you know – the A’s went and made some more moves before the season started. Yeah, not really a surprise. So let’s take a look at what the moves mean to the A’s 2016 lineup.

The Infield

    In an attempt to make it easier on the A’s PA announcer, Beane/Forst traded Bret Lawrie to the White Sox for two minor league pitchers. There is chatter that says Lawrie was moved because he was a negative clubhouse factor. That move leaves most of the infield picture settled, with Jed Lowrie at second, Marcus Semien at shortstop, and Danny Valencia at third. It isn’t a surprise that someone was moved. Once the A’s acquired Lowrie, the writing was on the wall for Lawrie or Valencia. Lowrie is a known commodity, whereas Lawrie still had some growth left – specifically power potential. It removes a lot of uncertainty in the infield in Oakland, but also means there won’t be much chance for anyone outperforming their projections at second base or third base.
    The other big move the A’s made actually complicates the first base situation even though it doesn’t involve an infielder. Oakland picked up Khris Davis from the Brewers of Milwaukee for two solid prospects – Jacob Nottingham, the catcher Oakland got in the Kazmir trade with the Astros, and Bubba Derby, a 6th round pick last year who put up gaudy strikeout numbers in the lower levels of the A’s farm system in 2015. Davis will be the everyday left-fielder, which will of course shake up the outfield situation – we will get to that in a bit. What it also does is mess with the first base situation. Mark Canha was likely to get a lot of time in left unless Coco Crisp made a remarkable recovery from his chronic neck ailments. Canha also plays first base, so what is likely to happen is that he and Yonder Alonso will fight for playing time. If Alonso suffers an injury and misses significant time (which is a thing for Alonso), then Canha takes over. It will be interesting to see what gets sorted out in spring training. The A’s have a glut of left-fielder/first baseman types who are big question marks. One thing that hasn’t changed is that the health of Coco Crisp, their highest paid player, will determine a lot of personnel moves.

The Outfield

    The acquisition of Khris Davis and his extraneous ‘h’ means that all the intrigue involving Jake Smolinski, and Andrew Lambo is virtually over. Davis hit 21 home runs in 259 plate appearances in the second half of the 2015 season making him the biggest power threat in the A’s lineup. The former Brewer has been an average, to slightly below average, defender in left field for the last three seasons with DRS (defensive runs saved) values of -2, 4, and -6 in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Last season he showed league-average range in left at 1.78 (the league average was 1.79). Davis put up much better walk totals last year than he had in the past, with 44 free passes in 440 plate appearances as opposed to his 2014 totals of 32 walks in 549 plate appearances. Davis swung less often than he had in the past, displaying improved plate discipline. His minor league record shows multiple seasons of OBP’s above .400, so maybe this is Davis finally making the adjustments to major league pitching, possibly explaining his breakout second half of 2015.
    Assuming Coco Crisp stays with the A’s, he will be fighting with Billy Butler for DH time, and with Lambo and Smolinski for an outfield reserve spot. Crisp can play centerfield, which neither Smolinski nor Lambo can manage. Coco can spell Burns in centerfield, or play there for an extended stretch if Burns can’t follow up his rookie breakout with another quality year. A healthy Crisp makes the A’s outfield much deeper, but it makes it unlikely that Smolinski and Lambo both make the team, unless the A’s manage to move Billy Butler or Coco Crisp. Crisp and Butler are owed a lot of money and had poor seasons last year, making a trade unlikely.
    On a sunnier note, Crisp being limited to fewer games in the outfield might mean he and his useful bat make it through the season, which would make the bench deeper. Last season the A’s gave Sam Fuld 325 plate appearances, even though his slash line was .197/.276/.293. Fuld is useful for his glove, but has lost all of his offensive value since coming to Oakland. He has put up back to back seasons with an OPS between .568 and .569 – not the kind of consistency you want from your fourth outfielder. He is the kind of guy you carry if you decide you have room for a 5th outfielder who is a glove-only option, and that doesn’t happen much these days as teams are more likely to carry 13 pitchers, and only 12 position players.

The Starting Rotation

    There is more to come for the A’s this off-season – probably in the next few days – because the A’s designated Sean Nolin for assignment. This means that they have to trade him within 10 days, or hope he clears waivers so they can send him down to AAA to start the season. The team is in this position because they needed to make room on the 40-man roster when they acquired Khris Davis. Nolin is too valuable a piece to just lose for nothing, so we have to assume the A’s have a deal in the works that involves the former Blue Jays’ starting pitcher. The only other possibility is that the A’s are hoping that his mediocre numbers in his six starts last season when he was called up, mixed with his lost time due to injury in 2015, will make teams leery about making a waiver claim on the 6’4” lefty. That seems like a really big gamble to take, so the only logical explanation is that the A’s will be trading him this week. If they were going to expose someone to a waiver claim without a deal in place, Felix Dubront or Aaron Brooks would be better candidates, since losing them wouldn’t represent a hit on the A’s future (or their present, for that matter).

What now?

The A’s got better for next season, this is certain. They just improved their offense, while giving back prospects, including Nottingham, who had just been named the 66th best prospect in baseball. It begs the question: what direction are the A’s going? Davis is under team control for the next four seasons, but that involves arbitration and possibly some huge raises – likely one of the reasons the A’s moved last season’s MVP Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for prospects. Giving up Nottingham might have been the only way the A’s were going to nab a cleanup hitter without losing Franklin Barreto, their top prospect, or Sean Manea, their top pitching prospect. It isn’t what a rebuilding team does though. So do the A’s have enough to make a run in 2016? They have completely rebuilt their major league bullpen, and picked up a cleanup hitter while stabilizing their outfield picture for the next few seasons. They have improved their bench depth and are hoping for health to improve their starting rotation. They do not look like a rebuilding team because clearly they aren’t. This is what it looks like when a small-market team tries to assemble the best roster they can on a shoestring budget so that they can make a run if the pieces all fall into place. The A’s are unlikely to nab a playoff spot in 2016, but they have put themselves in a position to compete, and in poker parlance, they now have a chip and a chair – they are in the game.

An Analysis of the 2016 Oakland A’s

Elephantine Expectations
by Jim Silva
    The A’s first came into existence in the American League in 1901 in Philadelphia as the Athletics. That first A’s team was managed by Cornelius Alexander McGillicuddy (Connie Mack), who was also part owner, in his first year back in the manager’s seat after five years away from the dugout. Mack had been a player-manager for Philadelphia’s NL team until 1896. Under Mack the A’s won the World Series five times in eight tries. He managed the A’s through the 1950 season. The A’s moved to Kansas City for the 1955 season under new ownership and never finished higher than 6th in their 13 years there. They were sold and moved again with Charles Finley taking them to Oakland where their fortunes quickly changed. They managed their first winning season since 1949 in their first season in Oakland – 1967, then won the AL West five years in a row starting with the 1971 season. The A’s won the World Series three years in a row from 1972 through 1974. They appeared in the World Series three seasons in a row, 1988, 1989, and 1990, winning the middle one after a massive earthquake delayed the  Bay Area series against the San Francisco Giants for several days. They have won the West seven times since that last World Series appearance, but haven’t made it back to the big stage since 1990. So will this be the year the A’s break their World Series drought?
Standing Behind The Dish

    In the 2014 play-in game versus the Royals, Oakland’s lack of a catcher who could throw was grossly exposed when KC stole seven bases against them, while only being caught one time. There was some bad luck involved as the A’s started Geovany Soto, a late season acquisition, who actually throws well. A thumb injury took Soto out of the game in the 3rd inning, and the Royals ran like bunnies all over Derek Norris and to be fair, Jon Lester. The A’s started 2015 with two catchers – one acquired in a trade – both of whom could hit a bit. But had they broken the pattern of using catchers who would be exposed by a team willing to steal?
    The A’s shipped Derek Norris to the Padres before last season after picking up Josh Phegley in the Jeff Samardzija/Marcus Semien deal. Norris had a 3.0 WAR season (his best) for Oakland in 2014. He had always been about league average in his ability to cut down base stealers with two seasons in a row at 26%. 2014 saw that number drop to 17%, 10 points below league average. For comparison, Soto threw out 53% of the runners who attempted to steal off of him in his short stint with the A’s, and the A’s only other catcher in 2014, John Jaso, threw out 11%. Jaso is a special case as he regularly has one of the slowest pop times – the time it takes a catcher to get rid of his throw during a steal attempt – in the majors. Jaso should be a designated hitter and emergency catcher at this stage in his career.
    In 2015 the A’s put Stephen Vogt behind the dish 100 times, and Josh Phegley, their acquisition from the White Sox, 68 times. Vogt, who was more of an emergency catcher in 2014 getting into 15 games at catcher and throwing out the only three runners who tried to steal on him, threw out a league average 32% of the base runners who attempted steals in 2015. Phegley was even better at 39%, 7% points above league average, although Phegley doesn’t frame pitches well and cost his staff just over 6 runs last season in that department. He is an average pitch blocker though, and has a strong arm, so defensively he isn’t too far below average when you put the whole package together. Vogt is a worse pitch framer than Phegley, costing the A’s just over 10 runs in lost strike calls last season. His overall defensive package is uglier than Phegley’s and he is truly a “bat first” catcher. The A’s are likely to stick with the same pair next season because Vogt put together a 3.5 WAR season, including a 114 park adjusted OPS. Phegley had a .749 OPS, including 9 homers, in roughly half a season of work – 243 plate appearances for 1.6 WAR. Granted, some of Vogt’s WAR was accumulated at other positions – first base, left field, and DH, but working more than 4.0 WAR out of your catcher spot is impressive. The A’s catching may have been the most successful non-pitching position in 2015 due to their offensive prowess, but Vogt and Phegley hurt the A’s pitchers by costing them strikes. Of further concern is that Vogt’s first and second half splits don’t bode well for 2016 as his OPS dropped 242 points from .872 before the All Star break, to .630 after the All Star break. Phegley dropped off a bit too, but nothing like what Vogt experienced.
    There isn’t anyone pushing from the minors quite yet. The A’s actually signed two minor league free agents to catch at the upper levels last season. Their highest level minor league catcher who is a bona fide prospect is Jacob Nottingham, who came over in the Kazmir trade from Houston. He showed great growth last season as a hitter clubbing 17 home runs with three teams and compiling a .316/.372/.505 slash line while reaching high-A as a 20 year old. He is a real catcher whose bat is ahead of his catching mechanics. He is a couple seasons away, so the A’s will need to work with their decent catching core until Nottingham is ready. Catchers get banged up, but while the A’s for Nottingham to be done cooking, if the duo of Phegley and Vogt comes back healthy, the A’s should experience solid performance from an offensive standpoint. If that ever changes the A’s will have to make a move because their catching tandem isn’t cutting it behind the plate.

How Many Holes Does It Take to Fill The A’s Infield? (Apologies to the Beatles)

    Last season, Billy Beane made moves intended to fill some of the recurring holes in the A’s infield. He picked up Marcus Semien and named him starting shortstop. He swapped his budding superstar third baseman, Josh Donaldson, for someone else’s former budding star third baseman, Brett Lawrie, and acquired a potential star shortstop (Franklin Barreto) in the process. He acquired a former future star first baseman (Ike Davis) and traded for a second baseman/really cool pocket knife, Ben Zobrist. That’s quite a remake/remodel season and that’s only the infielders! The trades were more complicated than what you see above, with some pitchers coming back and other pieces leaving, but the common theme was that Beane was trying to rebuild without completely starting over. He wanted to beef up his depleted minor league system (from his all-in attempts to win the 2014 World Series) while still competing – which meant adding major league parts. When you try to do two things at once with a trade, you tend to end up doing each thing less effectively than if you focus on one thing at a time, but that’s a topic for a whole different article. This section looks at the A’s infield last season, and what the plan is for next season.
    In early April, the A’s starting infield looked like it would be Ike Davis at first, Ben Zobrist at second, Marcus Semien at short, and Bret Lawrie at third. That was the plan anyway. Unfortunately, Davis was injured or ineffective for most of the season, Zobrist was also out for several weeks after getting off to a slow start – still solid numbers which got better after his return – and then was traded to the Royals when the A’s were clearly out of it. Semien was a nightmare defender for the first half of the season, but with the help of coach, Ron Washington, seemed to right the ship during the second half. Lawrie stayed healthy for the first time in a while and put up his worst offensive and defensive season so far in his short career. All in all it was a train wreck for anyone who played on the dirt part of the field for the A’s. Changes started happening during the second half, and have continued into the off-season.
    In 2015, the A’s used the first base spot like many teams use the DH spot – stick some guy in there who can’t play anywhere else and hope he hits enough to carry the position. They’ve just never really found a starting first baseman. Ike Davis, who looked like he would be the starter when 2015 began, was just released after a season where injuries and performance limited him to 239 plate appearances. He slugged .350 with a park adjusted OPS of 79. So the A’s have moved on, making a trade for oft-injured first baseman, Yonder Alonso. The Padres kept hoping Alonso would turn into Mark Grace or something even better, but he is now 28 years old and has yet to break the .400 mark (in a season with at least 100 plate appearances) with his slugging percentage. Alonso does have value; last season he showed what he could do with 400 plate appearances at this stage in his career. He got on base at a .361 clip, which is in line with his career numbers, and would have led the A’s in that category last season. He rarely makes errors at first base and bounces above and below league average with his range factor. It appeared that he would be a doubles machine after he hit 39 in his first full season with the Padres, but he has yet to break 20 since then, partly due to his inability to avoid injury and partly due to an apparent lack of power. Still, nobody would be shocked if Alonso managed 30 doubles assuming he managed to get to the plate 600 times. Alonso is a lefty, but fares decently against same-side pitchers with a career .313 OBP against port-siders, so he doesn’t have to be platooned. He could be a starting first baseman if his body can hold up. That is a huge if, but he only made $1.65 million last year, so whatever the A’s can get out of him should be a bargain as they wait for one of their best prospects, Matt Olson. If Alonso goes down, then the A’s must move Mark Canha back to first base from left field, assuming he isn’t already involved in some kind of platoon with Alonso. Canha was a rule five pick from the Marlins by the Rockies, who then traded him to the A’s. He played left field and first base for the A’s, and I discuss his numbers in the outfield section of this analysis.
    Ben Zobrist looked like he would be an upgrade at second for the A’s last year when they traded for him last off-season, and he was indeed – particularly in the second half. But when the A’s faded from contention, they shipped him to KC. After the move, Oakland experimented with Bret Lawrie at second where he did better than at third. Going into the off-season, Lawrie appeared to be the front runner for the starting job at second. He is an offensive upgrade over Eric Sogard but he isn’t the gloveman that Sogard has been over the years. Still, Lawrie’s promise of power gives him the nod, or it did until they traded for Jed Lowrie. Jed’s second stint with the A’s means they currently have three viable options to play two spots – second and third. There are trade rumors about the other two guys – Danny Valencia and Bret Lawrie so stay tuned.
    Jed Lowrie is likely a half season rental who will be flipped by the trade deadline for a prospect. Beane and Forst have done this before – most recently with Zobrist – and it is a good strategy. That means Lowrie will get playing time so that his value doesn’t decline. It is hard to say what Jed is these days. He has a reputation as a middle infielder with pop who doesn’t have the range to play short, and is, at best, an average defender at second and third. If the A’s plan on giving him a position and not moving him around (as per his request) then second is likely the spot, regardless of whether they trade Lawrie or Valencia. He will hit doubles and maybe reach double figures in home runs, and walk enough to get on base at around a .330 clip – not bad.
    If the A’s keep Lowrie, Lawrie, AND Valencia, then Lawrie or Lowrie could move between the two spots while Valencia holds down third base (and the A’s need to figure out a way to sign Peter Lorre to announce home games even if he IS dead). Valencia had a breakout year and was waived by the Blue Jays, allowing Oakland to claim him and make him the starting third baseman. It is pretty rare to waive someone with an OPS of .838 but the Jays did it with Valencia, and the A’s pounced. For the season, Valencia posted an .864 OPS and a park adjusted OPS of 140. His glove was sound if unspectacular as his range factor was slightly above league average at third, as was his fielding percentage. Valencia was 30, so this could be late development or an outlier although his batting average on balls in play with Oakland – .308 – was in line with his career total – .305. His value has never been higher, and Lawrie’s has never been lower, so if the A’s are going to move one of them for prospects it should be Valencia. That said, if the growth is real they have a considerable upgrade at third and possibly at second depending on your view of Bret Lawrie.
    The talk about Lawrie when he was traded to Oakland was that he would shine, if only he could stay healthy, and getting him off the artificial grass in Toronto would accomplish that – at least Lawrie was counting on that. It seems that the latter was correct even if the former turned out to be untrue. Lawrie was pretty awful, most definitely not providing the kind of offense expected of a third baseman in this era. It appears that part of the blame fell on his lack of selectivity. He was actually more selective as a 22 year-old when he struck out 86 times in 536 plate appearances and walked 33 times. Lasts season his strikeouts jumped to 144 in 602 plate appearances and his walks dropped to 28. His power numbers look pretty consistent over the last  four seasons with slugging percentages between .397 and .421 (.407 last season), but he just makes too many outs. It’s hard to see him actually regaining control of the strike zone, because his grasp of it has always been pretty tenuous. In the minors, his highest walk total was 47 (AA as a 20 year-old), and the increase in strikeouts is a concern. His OBP has dropped every year in the majors and is now right around .300.
    When the A’s traded Jeff Samardzija for a package that included Marcus Semien, the hope was that Semien would be the long term solution to the A’s shortstop woes. This was based more on his ability with the bat, and projection, than on his ability with the glove. Most of his experience in the field has been at second base in the majors although he has played second, short, and third in the minors. In the field it didn’t start well – his overall fielding percentage was well below league average – but that was mostly based on his god-awful first half. His range was about league average, if slightly below. His bat, though – 45 extra base hits, including 15 home runs, from your 24 year-old shortstop, and an OPS of .715 (park adjusted OPS of 95, so slightly below league average for all hitters) is worth being patient for. Speaking of patience, that’s a place where Semien needs to grow. His ratio of strikeouts to walks was 132 to 42, which pretty much matches his last partial season in Chicago. There is evidence of good strike zone judgment in his not-too-distant past. In his last full season in the minors he struck out 90 times while walking 92 times – numbers close to that, along with a slight bump in power would make him a star (assuming he holds on to the defensive gains he made under coach, Ron Washington’s tutoring). Wash talked about Semien’s transformation in an article by Kristina Kahrl, stating how smart he was and how eager to learn. According to Washington, Semien put in a lot of extra work on the mechanics of the position and most observers would agree that the improvement has been tremendous, not to say that he is a wizard with the glove quite yet. The main complaint is arm strength, but under Washington’s tutoring the young shortstop has cleaned up the mechanics of his throw in an effort to maximize what arm he has.
    The bottom line is that what Beane did last year didn’t work completely, but with some tinkering the hardest part looks like it may be working – Semien at short. With three pieces, plus Sogard as a backup, second and third base will likely be an upgrade from where the team started last year. Even first base will be improved even if Alonso is just a place holder. Overall, the A’s infield should be much less scary this season.

The A’s Outfield Problem (or Coco Burns My Mouth)

    The A’s have a number of players on their 40 man roster who might be considered options to play the outfield next year. Two of them have locked down starting jobs based on their ability and should be out there at the start of next season. Billy Burns took the centerfield job and had a surprisingly good year cranking out 2.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and was a .298 hitter when you adjust his raw batting average for park effects. Most of his WAR was earned at the plate but he is an adequate centerfielder. If he can sustain last season’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) of .339 and increase his on-base percentage from last season’s .334 to .350 or higher  – and based on his minor league stats that might happen – then he is a legitimate leadoff hitter. It would be hard to displace him unless he regresses as there are many teams in need of guys who can get on base. In right field, the A’s have a resurgent Josh Reddick. Reddick battled injuries two seasons in a row, but stayed on the field long enough last season (149 games) to post a 3.5 WAR season, while posting a slash line of .272/.333/.449 and a park adjusted on base percentage of 113. He even stole 10 of the 12 bases he tried to pilfer. He has cut his strikeout percentage each of the last three seasons dropping from 22.4% to 11.2% – cutting it exactly in half. Last season his walk rate increased a bit and seems to have stabilized around 8%. Reddick has a reputation for having a cannon in right which might explain why his assists have dropped off from 15 to 6 since his gold glove 2012 season. Base runners seemed to have learned that he has a strong, accurate arm and have stopped trying to take an extra base on him.
    This leaves left field – oh, left field – where currently the starter is Coco Crisp. When Coco is healthy, he delivers speed and some pop to the A’s lineup while playing a solid left field. The problem is that Coco is not likely to be healthy enough to play baseball every day ever again. Chronic neck problems have brought him down each of the last two seasons after a 2013 season where he racked up 4.1 WAR. It isn’t just age – Crisp is 36 – as the outfielder is always trim and in shape. It is extremely unlikely that he will ever put up a 4.0 WAR season again, and even expecting a 2.0 WAR season out of him falls into the category of wish-casting. This is not an attack on Coco – he is a minor star when he is healthy – but chronic neck problems can be debilitating. So if the A’s are counting on Crisp to start 140+ games then they will likely be disappointed. The big problem with waiting around to see how Coco’s neck fares is that Crisp is the highest paid player on the A’s by a lot, making $11 million last season, and under contract for 2016 at the same $11 million. The A’s have a buyout option for $750 thousand with Crisp holding a vesting option based on games played and/or plate appearances in 2015/2016. So the A’s are stuck with him, and I hesitate to say it like that because he is a great guy to have on the team from all accounts. But a disabling injury doesn’t care how you treat the rookies or how early you show up to take extra fly balls. The A’s are in some kind of rebuild, so ideally you would get Coco off to a hot start and trade him, but I doubt he would pass the physical if traded, not to mention the contract burden someone would have to take on. Complicating or simplifying the A’s problem is a lack of a proven option.
    The A’s have plenty of bench guys who can play the outfield, and a few unknowns. Jake Smolinski (for example) is 26 and has the wee total of 84 at-bats that say he can hit in the majors (with Texas in 2014). His minor league career stats don’t show him as a guy about to break out, although his last 150 at bats in the minors made him look pretty Ruthian. He is unlikely to be a star, but might be a stopgap for the A’s if they could somehow move Crisp. His projections have him as .250 hitter with around 10 homers in a bit more than half of a season. I think the A’s would be happy to get a .730 OPS (on-base plus slugging) out of him in a full season with 15 to 20 homers (which might be a stretch). Crisp’s neck might force the issue, but I think Billy Beane should work hard to move Crisp for anything they can get. This would allow the A’s to save the money, or at least a good chunk of the money, and try out some guys who are 10 years younger than Coco who could provide some upside instead of only providing decline years.
    Another direction the A’s could go would be to move Mark Canha to left field opening up an even bigger hole at first. Canha played slight above replacement level baseball with some streaks of power and a solid-average glove in both left and at first. Canha had a park adjusted OPS of 102 and a slash line of .254/.315/.426 hitting 16 homers and stealing seven bases in nine tries. He isn’t going to make errors at either position, but his range numbers weren’t great – so basically he catches what he gets to. He was not a championship player last season, but it was his first try at regular playing time and his minor league numbers say he might have a little more pop and some more walks to give. If he does, that makes him a solid starter, but not a star. Right now, the A’s are short a few solid starters, so some growth from Canha would get him another 150 plate appearances. The problem with moving Canha off of first is that it makes Ike Davis the starting first baseman. It was a good gamble for the A’s to pick up Davis last year but it just didn’t pan out. You would expect him to miss time, which he did, but you’d also expect him to hit for power and get on base, which he didn’t.
    A somewhat wild long-shot option, and probably their best option assuming Billy Beane is in rebuilding mode, would be to try Andrew Lambo in left. Lambo was claimed off waivers from the Pirates this offseason. He has hit with excellent power and gotten on base at AA and AAA, but in his 99 plate appearances has looked overmatched at the major league level. He is a 27 year old lefty who has more power against righties, but he has improved at each level against lefties – at least in terms of hitting for average. Mainly, injuries have stopped him from getting an extended try in the majors. Lambo actually has some minor star potential if he can make some adjustments to major league pitching and stay healthy. Granted, that is saying a lot, but Lambo has a short, quick swing and generates a lot of power with it. As an essentially free player, it would be wise of the A’s to give him every chance to prove himself in the majors. There is some potential for a SmoIinski/Lambo platoon since Smolinski has had some pretty impressive lefty mashing splits, especially last season in AAA.
    It will be interesting to see what Beane and Forst do to assemble a squad for 2016. He has a few tough moves to make, but in the end it will likely be a rough season for the A’s as they build for the future. They should go all in and ride some of their intriguing gambles until they prove that they can or can’t play. Lambo, Canha, and Smolinski need extended playing time if the A’s are to capitalize on Beane’s gambles in acquiring free talent. Maybe the next Brandon Moss is already on the roster!

Designated to What?

    If you’ve ever tasted durian, a foul-smelling tropical fruit considered a delicacy in some countries in Asia, then you know what taste A’s fans had in their collective mouth last season every time the DH spot came to bat. After the 2014 season, the A’s signed Billy Butler to be their full-time DH for three seasons at the cost of $30 million. Butler was coming off two sub-par seasons in a row (1.5 WAR and -0.3 WAR), but is durable, and at 28 looked like he was capable of a rebound. Between 2009 and 2012, Butler logged OBP’s no lower than .361 and slugged between .461 and .510. In his All Star season of 2012, Butler showed the power everyone had been expecting from him, hitting 29 home runs. Butler had hit, but keep the man away from the glove safe because he is likely to hurt someone. “Country Breakfast” has never had a dWAR higher than -1.2 in any full season at first base. Yes, you read that right – negative 1.2. Nevertheless, it looked like a decent gamble by A’s GM, Billy Beane, albeit a somewhat expensive one.
    Butler showed his usual durability appearing in 151 games – 136 at DH and 7 at first base – and came to bat 601 times in 2015. Nobody expected Butler to accumulate any dWAR (a measure of how much better a defender is than a replacement level player – think of that guy who is up and down all season between AAA and the majors), and he didn’t, but they expected better than the -0.6 oWAR (the same measure for hitters) that Butler posted last season. He actually cost the A’s wins by running out there to the batter’s box every day. For comparison, the average DH in the AL last season posted the following slash line – a .259 batting average/a .333 on base percentage/and a .439 slugging percentage. That includes everyone who occupied the DH spot all season. Butler’s slash line was .251/.323/.390 putting him well below average at the position he was best suited for at a cost of approximately $7.66 million if you count his contract buyout from the Royals.
    But that is all water under the bridge. 2016 is a new season and Butler will make $11.667 million this year. So what can the A’s expect from him? Baseballreference.com projects him to hit at a slightly improved .265/.334/.399 clip, leaving him short of league average again. His glove isn’t going to turn into an asset, so unless Butler significantly beats his projections the A’s will be losing ground every time he steps to the plate. Butler’s cost means the A’s are likely to give him every chance to recapture his past where he was a 2.2-3.2 WAR player instead of his current negative WAR self. If the A’s decide to trade him and somebody bites, then the A’s might be able to use the spot to keep Coco Crisp rested and somewhat healthy or give at-bats to Jake Smolinski, Andrew Lambo, and Max Muncy to see if any of their bats are worthy of hanging onto when they are competitive again. All three need playing time to see if they have any value, and considering what Butler has become, what would be the risk of opening up the DH spot to the youngsters?

Pitching a Fit

    Oakland went into spring training looking like their starting rotation was deeper than about any other team in baseball. Things didn’t work out as planned even though the A’s didn’t trade away any starters. To understand how this all unfolded, let’s take the Way-Back Machine to 2013. That was the season the A’s only had seven different pitchers standing on the mound when the ump cried out, “Play ball!”, and five of those pitchers made 26 starts or more – that is some serious stability in a rotation. Additionally, no reliever pitched more than their closer, Grant Balfour’s 69.0 innings. The stability of the 2013 rotation protected the bullpen with good results. They were counting on similar magic to compete in 2014.

Pitcher
Starts
Innings Pitched
A. J. Griffin
32
200.0
Jarrod Parker
32
197.0
Bartolo Colon
30
190.1
Tommy Milone
26
156.1
Dan Straily
27
152.1
Sonny Gray
10
64.0
Brett Anderson
5
44.2

    At the start of spring training 2014, here is what the rotation looked like it would be for the A’s: A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker, Scott Kazmir, Dan Straily, Tommy Milone, Sonny Gray (not listed in a particular order). Jesse Chavez was another possibility, but he was likely earmarked for the pen because of the depth of the rotation, and because he is a versatile arm who can start or relieve. The dominos started to crash down during spring training with both Griffin and Parker tearing their UCLs and heading into the operating room for brand new elbows – out for the season. Straily was a hot mess with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching – how he REALLY pitched independent of the quality of the defense around him and the park) of 5.66, and only made seven starts (allowing 2.1 home runs per 9 innings), spending most of the season in the minors trying to recapture his game from the previous season. Sonny Gray blossomed (33 starts, 219.0 innings pitched, with a FIP of 3.46) as a 24 year old in his first full season in the majors. Jesse Chavez was a revelation as a 30 year old, throwing in 21 starts (17 more than his career total) and posting a FIP of 3.89. Kazmir continued his re-emergence with 32 starts and a FIP of 3.35 in 190.1 innings. Malone was a stabilizing force supplying league average innings making 16 starts with a 4.42 FIP, which, for a team battling injuries, was life-saving. Drew Pomeranz, acquired before the season in a trade for Bret Anderson, started in the pen but then chipped in with 10 starts before breaking his pitching hand punching a solid object in a fit of frustration. In those 10 starts, he held opponents to a paltry .590 OPS.
    The A’s, in spite of a lot of lost innings pitched, due to injuries, got off to an amazing start but were fading hard when Billy Beane traded for Jason Hammels, Jon Lester, and Jeff Samardzija. It looked like the A’s were buying insurance for their already strong starting pitching, but Beane knew the A’s rotation was starting to come back down to Earth just as the Angels were soaring, and a lack of action would leave them out of the playoffs. By the end of the season, the rotation was Lester, Gray, Samardzija, Kazmir, and Hammels, – quite a different look from what was expected when spring training started. Looking at it out of the corner of your good eye, the 2014 rotation was stable in its own weird way – at least in the first four spots.

Rotation Spots
Pitchers
Dates
Starts
Totals
1
Gray
Full Season
33
33
2
Kazmir
Full Season
32
32
3
Chavez/Lester
Start of season to July 28th/August 2nd to end of season
21/11
32
4
Milone/Samardzija
Start of season to July 4th/July 6th to end of season
16/16
32

    The 5th spot in the rotation was reasonably stable for the 5th spot with Jason Hammels taking the ball 12 times after his arrival with Lester after Pomeranz covered 10 starts before that. Looking forward, the A’s knew that Lester, Samardizja, and Hammels were likely to leave before the next season, and indeed that’s what happened.
    So what would the 2015 A’s rotation look like? Oakland was hoping for more of the same from Gray and Kazmir at the head of their rotation, but what about the rest of their starters? There was no way they could expect the same kind of stability from 2013 – or likely the bifurcated stability they got from trades in 2014. They were hoping to get Griffin and Parker back at mid-season, so there was a lot of uncertainty. Pomeranz did well as a starter and better out of the pen in 2014, but they were counting on him in the rotation because they didn’t have their accustomed rotation depth. Pomeranz lasted until the end of May until he was sent back to the pen for the rest of the season. His work as a starter included an OPS of .707, a 4.63 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.299, while his numbers as a reliever were an OPS of .587, and ERA of 2.61 (2 runs lower), and a WHIP of 1.065. His peripherals also indicated that he was better suited to relief work as his strikeout rate jumped from 7.3 per 9 innings as a starter, to 10.0 as a reliever. Chavez was back, and began the season in the pen, but by the 23rd of April he was solidly in the rotation and remained there almost exclusively for the rest of the season. The 2002 42nd round pick managed his best season, putting up 1.6 WAR over 157.0 innings with 26 starts and a FIP of 3.85.
    The A’s had also acquired young pitching in a couple of big trades including Jesse Hahn from the Padres and Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin from the Blue Jays. For the A’s to succeed in 2015 they would need help from some or all of their new, young starters. Hahn made the rotation out of spring training and managed 16 starts before going down for the rest of the season with an arm injury. His 3.51 FIP, 1.16 WHIP and 1.0 WAR in half a season of work made him one of the A’s best starters in the first half. The forearm injury that sent him to the DL turned into an elbow issue that didn’t require surgery but kept him out the rest of the season. Graveman was up and down both literally and figuratively. He won a spot in the rotation during spring training but only held onto it for a bit before being shipped out to AAA to find himself. When he came back he looked good the rest of the first half with a May ERA of 2.31 (only two starts), and a June ERA of 1.93 (six starts). The second half looked a lot like his first few starts and his ERA blew up – July’s ERA of 4.85 (5 starts), and August’s ERA of 5.03. He was shut down for the season with a non-arm injury after that fourth start in July, but overall it wasn’t a bad first full season for the rookie pitcher. Nolin, looked liked the better acquisition when he came over from the Jays with Graveman but struggled with injuries shortening his minor league season. When he regained his health and arrived in the majors he was ineffective allowing a WHIP of 1.621 and a FIP of 5.13. Still his numbers at Nashville indicate promise so the A’s will give him more chances to succeed. He needs a stretch of health for his talent to translate into a career.
    6’5 righty, Chris Bassitt, acquired in the Samardzija trade, got his first real exposure to the majors, adding 13 starts to the mix. Bassitt looked like a slightly better than league average pitcher posting 1.2 WAR and keeping his ERA to 3.79. Due possibly to his unconventional motion, the right-hander maintained a reverse split holding lefties to a .217 average, while allowing righties to reach at a .279 clip. He also managed to keep the ball in the park better than other A’s starters, limiting batters to 0.5 home runs every 9 innings. In all, 13 pitchers started games for Oakland over the course of the A’s 2015 season – quite different from the 7 starters of 2013. For 2016 to be a growth season for the A’s, they need to find that stability from 2013, or at least make changes based on good looks at young pitchers rather than medical urgency.
    For the A’s to compete in 2016, they must have a solid, stable group of starters behind Sonny Gray. Losing Kazmir and Chavez to trade means that they have to find 48 starts somewhere else. This spring the A’s signed Rich Hill who they are hoping will compete for the 2nd spot in the rotation. If Hill manages the 32 starts he and the A’s are hoping for, then he will  be one of 2016’s biggest surprises. He has had a hard time staying healthy and his 1.6 WAR season in 2015 in only four starts should be considered not so much a fluke as a demonstration of Hill’s talent mixed with a short string of health. Here is the first line of his Baseball Prospectus comment in the “Lineouts” section for the Yankees from the 2015 issue: “Rich Hill is a very good pitcher, which is why it’s a shame that it’s nearly physically impossible for him to pitch.” If he is finally healthy – and that is very unlikely based on his health history since 2008 (he has spent nearly 500 days on the DL including two stints to recover from Tommy John surgeries) he is very likely to be an excellent, cheap addition to the A’s rotation who likely gets traded to a contender around the deadline if the A’s are out of contention. With a one year contract, the soon-to-be 36 year old is a rental who the A’s will flip if their gamble pays off, much the way they flipped Kazmir for prospects. There is no point in citing Hill’s numbers from last season due to small sample size laws, but he certainly pitched like a number two starter for the first time in his career. He is more likely to be a number three or four for Oakland unless he has truly figured something out during his work to return to the majors.
    Henderson Alvarez is another interesting signing for the A’s this off-season. Last year’s stats, like with Hill, probably don’t paint an accurate portrait of his ability. He ended the first half of the season on the DL and had shoulder surgery. The 25 year old righty was an All Star in 2014 and earned 4.6 WAR as a 24 year old. If Alvarez recovers from arm woes and returns to form, then $4.25 million (plus incentives) is a bargain. Again, if he manages to return to form – and he did pass his physical with the A’s – if the A’s are out of contention, they will likely flip him for more prospects around the deadline since his is a one year deal. For him to succeed he needs to regain the velocity on his fastball which dropped from around 93 MPH in 2014 to just over 90 MPH in his disastrous 2015, according to a Peter Gammons article. As a fastball/changeup guy he needs the velocity on his fastball for the change to be effective, as Gammons points out here: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/as-take-low-cost-gamble-on-henderson-alvarez-regaining-health-velocity/ .
    After Gray, who is a lock to be an ace, and Hill and Alvarez who are both locks to be a mystery, the A’s are counting on a whole lot of youth and some more recovery from arm surgery for the rest of their rotation. They can’t really count on the man who, if healthy, would be the number two starter, Jarrod Parker. The A’s signed Parker to a one year deal, and while nobody knows if he will make it back to the majors this season, the team obviously thinks he is worth taking a risk. It would be unwise to count on his return at the start of the season as he broke his arm throwing a pitch while rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery which is about as scary a sentence as a pitcher can read about himself. Parker started rehab on the arm in early July after surgery to stabilize the bone. Basically anything the A’s get out of Parker in 2016 will be gravy. Jesse Hahn wasn’t exactly much of a surprise after the A’s acquired him in a trade with the Padres last season. Hahn continued to progress from his 2104 season where he posted a WHIP of 1.2 and an ERA+ of 111. Hahn’s 2015 as a 25 year old saw him post a WHIP of 1.17 and an ERA+ of 120, so his injury really hurt the A’s chances of competing in the second half. If he can pick up where he left off, then Hahn might be the answer as the number two man in the rotation.
    Another young starter coming back from injury, Kendall Graveman should continue to make progress and find his spot as a three or a four starter. Aaron Brooks and Felix Doubront both made starts down the stretch for the A’s – nine for Brooks and eight for Doubront –  but neither of them did anything to show that they deserved to stay there. Brooks doesn’t walk many – he appears to prefer allowing batters to hit him really hard. Doubront seems happy letting hitters get on any old way they want – he has yet to post a WHIP under 1.426 at any major league stop and continued to allow homers at a high rate – 1.5 per nine innings last season. Either way, without a serious breakout by either of them, the A’s will be in trouble if Brooks or Doubront get more than emergency starts. Chris Bassitt, who started out strong and faded over the course of the season, will likely be back in the 2016 rotation – it will be interesting to see if he can make adjustments to start the season or lose his spot in the rotation as his ERA balloons.
    So to start the season it will likely look like this: Sonny Gray, Rich Hill, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, and the first of the following to get healthy enough to start, Henderson Alvarez, Jesse Hahn, and Jarrod Parker. Until one of those three become available, either Felix Doubront, Sean Nolin, or Aaron Brooks will probably come out of spring training in the 5th starter role. R.J. Alvarez and Raul Alcantara could also break into the rotation with good spring training performances – Alvarez has nasty stuff, but limited and mixed experience in the majors, while Alcantara was coming back from TJ surgery last season after showing consistent progress toward the majors.
    The dark horse, only because he just barely touched AA ball, is Sean Manaea, the A’s top pitching prospect, who has maintained a strikeout-per-nine innings rate of over 10 at every stop in his professional career. His control has also been excellent, including a strikeout to walk ratio over five in his last three stops (covering 11 starts). The A’s are unlikely to push him to the majors to start the season even though there should be a lot of excitement as soon as he comes up due to his stuff and improved command. He should be ready by 2017 – he is a fast mover –  and in the long run be the true number two the A’s need to pair with Gray.

Relief for a Besieged Pen

    One thing that Billy Beane has usually done a really great job with was building a cheap, effective, bullpen. Last year he only hit on one of those two adjectives and it wasn’t effective, as relievers piled up a FIP – ERA independent of fielding – of 4.36. There was definitely some bad luck involved –  losing the closer, Sean Doolittle to injury for all but 12 games in 2015, but mainly the pen just pitched horribly, and the A’s lost a lot of games after the pen came into play. But this off-season the front office has been busy acquiring arms to man the pen. In fact, the A’s have almost exclusively added pitching this off-season including four shiny-new bullpen arms – John Axford, Liam Hendriks, Ryan Madson, and Mark Rzepczynski. Gone are Dan Otero, he of the 1.5 WHIP and 6.75 ERA, Edward Mujica who gave up 7 long balls in just under 34 innings, Eric O’Flaherty, Tyler Clippard, and Drew Pomeranz along with a few others who impacted the pen’s miserable performance.
    Returning from 2015’s nightmare will be closer, Sean Doolittle who should be healthy again after finishing out the season from August 23rd on. When he is right, Doolittle blows away hitters like the cheap version of an elite closer that he is. 31 year old Fernando Rodriguez seems to have turned a corner and become an effective arm out of the pen. He was not exiled after posting a 3.08 FIP in 56 appearances in relief last season. Rodriguez has always struck out a lot of hitters, including 10 per nine innings last season, and his control has improved to the point that he walked 3.7 hitters per 9 and managed a WHIP of 1.142. He was most often used in the 7th, but with the acquisition of Madson, Axford, and Hendriks, who are all used to seeing high leverage, late-inning work, it is unclear what his role will be. He appears to be a durable arm pitching on one day’s rest, or in consecutive games, in half of his appearances in 2015. Working back from the 9th it will likely be Doolittle as closer, Madson and his .963 WHIP pitching the 8th, although Hendriks could fit here also with his 2015 FIP of 2.14 and his 71/11 strikeout to walk numbers. Axford has always struggled with control so he will likely pitch if he is hot and disappear if he is not. His 3.59 FIP in Coors Field last season was decent, so Oakland could make him look good – another guy for the A’s to flip? Rzepczynski still strikes out more than 10 per 9 and his FIP has stayed in the threes the last two seasons in spite of his high ERAs and WHIPs so he might be turn into a steal for the A’s and work his way into higher leverage appearances as the season wears on.
    Ryan Dull was an interesting call up last season. He dominated in the minors and looked impressive between rookie disasters in the bigs. He had a WHIP of 1.059 and only allowed 6.4 hits per nine, but he also gave up 2.1 home runs per 9. Throughout his minor league career (153 innings) he has averaged .60 home runs over nine, so it is unlikely that he will be touched for the long ball at 2.1 per nine again. He could become a big part of future A’s pens starting in 2016. There are many arms available to pitch long relief as the A’s are entertaining several starters for their five spots. R.J. Alvarez, Raul Alcantara, Felix Doubront, and Aaron Brooks all could end up in the pen if they don’t get make the rotation or get sent down to Nashville. The A’s greatly improved pen could be the key to them posting a record over .500 in 2016. Either way, the A’s pen won’t repeat last year’s disaster.

2016 Dreams

Putting together a team that can win the World Series in a small market has been Billy Beane’s unicorn since he took over as general manager in 1997. His efforts to find undiscovered value where other teams haven’t looked yet have made him a highly thought of and highly controversial figure in baseball. The A’s struggled last season after several of Beane’s controversial moves that were designed to rebuild the depleted farm system while still maintaining a competitive major league club. It is still too early to judge some of the moves – obviously the Ike Davis move didn’t pan out, but the Semien acquisition and even the Donaldson trade involved a lot of future value making them hard to judge yet. 2016 is unlikely to be pretty for fans of the green and gold. It is likely that the pen will be substantially better and possibly the A’s greatest strength. The rotation relies on a lot of “ifs”, so it’s hard to say with certainty whether it will be a strength or a liability. The hitting and defense should both improve slightly with Semien continuing to improve in both areas, Alonso improving the first base situation (not hard based on last season’s low bar), and getting anything from Coco Crisp and the core of maybes they picked up in the off-season or brought up late last year to play the outfield. Danny Valencia might well be a push when compared to Brett Lawrie – better OBP and maybe power for Valencia versus a better glove at third for Lawrie. On the whole the A’s haven’t made enough changes to position players to see enough of a difference in their run-scoring potential or their defense to turn them from a 94 loss team into a contender in the beefed up AL West. A good outcome would have the A’s getting to .500 and a bad outcome would have their starting pitching reeling from injuries and ineffectiveness taxing their improved pen causing them to burn out in the second half. That said, it is hard to doubt Billy and crew, so look for the A’s to finish around .500 and trade away at least three players for more prospects as they look to contend in 2017.