Two-thirds of an outfield has become whole. The travails of Hanley Ramirez.

Two Star Defenders and a Box of Rocks
by Jim Silva

    The 2015 version of the Red Sox outfield was pretty similar to what the 2016 Red Sox are running out there on a daily basis – one change really. But that one change should prove to be significant in moving the Sox back into contending in the AL East. Left field has historically been the spot to stash your big basher who maybe wasn’t the niftiest with the glove. Last year, Boston ran out arguably one of their worst defenders ever to play left field in Hanley Ramirez.
    How bad was Hanley? The converted shortstop failed the eye test and the stat test. It was more or less assumed that anyone athletic enough to play shortstop should have had an easy time making the shift to the easier part of the defensive spectrum. But last year’s experiment with the former Marlin, former Dodger, former Red Sox infielder was anything but easy. To be clear, Ramirez has always been a “bat first” shortstop so it wasn’t like they were moving a Gold Glove winner out there to ply his gilded glove. When he was in LA, it was widely understood that the Dodgers were conceding runs defensively at shortstop to get Hanley’s bat in the lineup. When his bat was special, the calculus was defensible. And it was special in 2013 and 2014 when he posted 5.1 and 4.6 oWAR (offensive wins above what a replacement level player would contribute) respectively. With numbers like that even when your dWAR (defensive wins above what a replacement level player would contribute) is negative you come out ahead. As a bonus, 2013 was actually a solid defensive season for Ramirez with a DRS of 3. The three seasons before that had Ramirez costing his team 17, 11, and 18 runs with his weak defense, so being neutral or even a little above neutral is a great thing by comparison. In Ramirez’ last campaign as the Dodgers shortstop he regressed toward his former defensive crapaliciousness costing the Dodgers nine runs. If Kobe Bryant had been a Dodgers starting pitcher there would have been an article in the LA Times talking about how Kobe had forced the Dodgers to let Ramirez sign with the Red Sox.
    So jump ahead to last season and that early spring optimism about how Hanley would certainly be able to make the move to left. Optimism soon turned to face palming as Ramirez put on a display of fecklessness that inspired this highlight film by Joon Lee on Twitter.

In limited time, due to injury, Hanley cost the Red Sox 19 runs with his “glove work”. What of his special bat work? Well, in the first half he hit .274/.320/.497 – nice power numbers at least. And the second half? Ramirez hit all 19 of his home runs before the break. It seems pretty clear that his second half was marred by various injuries as he batted .164/.190/.255 in August and then his season was done, as was his god-awful career as an outfielder. But enough of 2015! The other two gents who graced Fenway in 2015, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts are back and they both bring with them special gloves.
        Jackie Bradley Jr. is now patrolling center field as the starter instead of splitting time in all three outfield spots as the Phillips (in honor of the late Oakland A’s player, not the strange-headed screwdriver). 2015 saw Bradley save his team eight runs in the equivalent of half a season. He has always had the good glove rep ever since he was taken in the first round in 2011 out of college. Until last season, his bat had always been too costly to run him out there on a regular basis. With regular playing time Bradley’s hitting became an asset with a second half slash line of .267/.352/.539.
    Bradley Jr. only had 1376 plate appearances in the minors, the equivalent of under three full seasons, and he generally dominated with the slash line of a premier leadoff hitter with doubles power (.294/.391/.460). But starting with 107 plate appearances in 2013, Bradley looked like he was unable to make the offensive transition to the majors. In his first 822 plate appearances his slash line was a disappointing .215/.289/.348. Last year’s apparent breakout second half was probably just in time to give Bradley one more chance at the starting job. His elite glove will always earn him chances at a spot on the bench, but unless he can hit the Red Sox will move off of him and give one of their youngsters a chance.
    One of the most exciting young baseball players in the majors is Mookie Betts. Playing as a 22 year old last year he put up a 4.9 WAR season, garnered MVP votes, and improved on a really good half season from the year before. He saved his team 10 runs with his glove after saving 4 runs the year before. Betts hits for power, gets on base, hits for average and steals bases at a high rate nabbing 21 in 27 attempts last year. He hits righties and lefties well, both for power and average. Probably most terrifyingly to opponents, he was even better in the second half than in the first half.
Plate Appearances
Average
On Base
Slugging
First Half
378
0.277
0.328
0.464
Second Half
276
0.311
0.359
0.500
The Red Sox had the luxury of moving Betts from center to right this season to take advantage of his strong, accurate arm (he saved 4 runs in 2015 with his throwing alone). Remember that Betts is a converted second baseman so he is still (unbelievably) learning to play the outfield. He is already good enough to annually compete for a Gold Glove in right and his bat will put him in the conversation for MVP every year, especially if the Sox contend.
    An outfield with Bradley in center and Betts in right with not-Hanley in left will be better than what the Red Sox rolled out last year, and will help them contend in the AL East. So who will not-Hanley be in 2016? The other outfield spot was filled by many different people last season. Super expensive right-fielder Rusney Castillo – a 2014 signee from Cuba – made a lot of outs from the batter’s box in 2015. The Red Sox ran him out there 80 times (289 plate appearances) to see him post a slash line of .253/.288/.359. While his second half splits are better than his first half, they are still not good enough to warrant giving him regular playing time in spite of his excellent defense. At 28 he might be what you see now although often international signees take time to adjust to the differences in the American game, not to mention living in a new country and speaking a different language. There are of course $70+ million (the contract the Red Sox gave him to sign) reasons to give Castillo every chance to succeed. He is a talented athlete but the list of failed athletic baseball prospects is long and covered with broken glass – or maybe strikeouts.
    The Red Sox started the season with a platoon of Brock Holt and Chris Young. The right-handed Young was supposed to mostly face lefties as his career splits are pretty clear. His slash line against righties is .224/.292/.410 in 3287 plate appearances while his slash line against southpaws is a robust .263/.362/.475. Young used to be a stellar glove man but has declined noticeably in the last three to four seasons to the point where he is at best, neutral in the field. At 32, Young has to crush lefties to take up a roster spot for much longer, and it is unlikely the Red Sox will keep him around past this season since they have the money and resources to go get someone who can play everyday.
    Holt’s best skill is his ability to play everywhere. As a left-fielder he is good enough to start but not good enough to star. He carries an average glove out to left, which will be a huge asset when compared to poor, besieged Hanley, but his bat is fairly mundane. His 162 game average in the majors is not what you’d expect from a left-fielder – especially the four home runs part. He will hit for a respectable average and get on base at a decent clip. His slugging comes primarily from the 30 or so doubles he will hit, but he strikes out too much for a guy with Kuiperian (Duane) home run power.
    To date, Mookie and Jackie are off to excellent starts. Betts has traded some walks for home runs so his slugging is up while his on-base percentage is down. He is playing excellent defense as is the guy to his right, Jackie Bradley Jr.. JBJ has had an excellent first half, far eclipsing his best numbers and is beginning to see people talk about him as a superstar. A half a season does not a superstar make, but combined with his solid half last year this looks like real progress. If it is, then the Red Sox are being rewarded mightily for their patience.
Andrew Benintendi is moving quickly through the minors. He’s a center-fielder with good speed, extra base pop and a fancy minor league slash line of .315/.413/.573 in his first 241 at-bats. He is off to a good start at high-A and if he is moved aggressively could be ready next year. With Benintendi still a good bit away, the Sox have employed a number of players in left. Holt, Young, and Blake Swihart who the Sox have given the most playing time, have all spent time on the DL, so they have been running Bryce Brent and Ryan LaMarre out there. Both outfielders are 27, but profile differently. LaMarre is known more for his glove and his speed, but has put together a solid start to the season at triple-A with the bat as well. LaMarre hasn’t put it together in very short auditions in the minors and won’t be given much of a chance in Boston. Brent has some pop, but hasn’t shown enough to get much of a chance to stick either. He would probably be a 10 to 15 home run guy with a low batting average if given 600 plate appearances. These are the Red Sox, and they are competing for a championship, so there is little chance either man sticks with the big club once Holt, Swihart, and Young make their way back off the DL. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Sox make a move for an upgrade in left if their other three more palatable options are slow to come back. As for Rusney Castillo, he is 28 and stinking it up at Pawtucket, showing no power and no ability to get on base, so at this point he is looking like a big mistake as opposed to a possible solution to left field. It got so bad this year that the Sox took Castillo off the 40 man roster, exposing him to the waiver wire and nobody claimed him. He probably needs to go to another team where he might find a coach interested in straightening out his swing, but his giant contract makes that unlikely.
    If Rusney Castillo can fight his way back to Fenway (by improving his ability to get on base), the Red Sox would have a stellar defensive outfield and would be more versatile with Brock Holt moving around all the time. At this point that is Ben Cherrington wish-casting, but the Red Sox have the money and the only acceptable outcome to the season is a deep playoff run. The Red Sox are not likely to sit still and see what happens for too long if they think they can nab a left-fielder, keep Young on the bench as a pinch-hitter against lefties, and use Holt as a swiss army knife kinda player. If they end up sticking with Holt in left, it will at least be a huge improvement over last season, and less time spent face-palming is always a good thing, right?

The Astros outfielders can beat you and your family in a race, but can they help guide the Astros to a Pennant?

Talented Athletes & A Frustrating Puzzle
by Jim Silva

    Do you need a reason to hate the Houston Astros? Well, here are three: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, AND George Springer are both on their major league roster. When a team has one young (under 27) potential superstar on their roster you should envy them. When they have two it’s ok to hate them a little. But three? That is just too much to endure! Since this article is about the outfield we will focus on Springer and his outfield mates.
    George Springer was signed with the 11th pick of the first round in the 2011 draft. He will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season, but under team control (not a free agent) until 2021 even if the Astros don’t buy out some of those free agent years before then. Springer was Carlos Correa before Carlos Correa was Carlos Correa – he was one of those prospects that Astros fans knew about and drooled about before he even reached triple-A. The 6’3” right-fielder has very few holes in his game and has been the starter since he came up midway through the 2014 season. Since he first came up the one knock on George has been his high strikeout totals – 114 in his first season in 345 plate appearances, then improvement to 109 in 451 appearances. So far this season he has fanned 84 times in his first 386 plate appearances again showing improvement. Another good sign of Springer’s improving plate discipline has been his increasing walk totals – he is only two short of last season’s total in 50 fewer at bats. As with many young ball players, his power numbers are getting better as he makes pitchers throw him more strikes. Springer’s calling card is his terrific power. He already has 55 home runs through his first 1182 plate appearances – really fewer than two full seasons and is looking at a 30 plus home run season this year if he continues his pace from the first half.
    Springer is also fast with 27 career stolen bases to date. In fact the Astros have batted him exclusively in the one or two hole so far this year – a testament to both his speed and his ability to get on base. Springer’s speed has not equated to big range numbers in the field, in fact he has posted slightly below league average range numbers for his career so far. He still managed to put up positive DRS numbers last year, saving the Astros 6 runs with his glove. He is already a 3.5 to 4.0 WAR player and he is only in his second full season having just turned 26. With his athletic ability and his apparent ability to learn at the major league level, there is still room for growth – a scary thought for other American League teams.
    8.5 WAR. That’s what Carlos Gomez produced as a 27 year old Gold Glove centerfielder for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2013. Those are numbers to build your franchise around especially when they come from a 27 year old five tool player in center field. It seems that the Astros traded for the 2013 Carlos Gomez when they shipped a boatload of prospects to get Gomez along with Mike Fiers at the deadline last year. The big question all Astros fans want answered is which Carlos Gomez is patrolling centerfield in 2016. So far the answer appears to be that the guy who managed those two magical seasons in Milwaukee is gone. The frustrating athlete the Brewers had before his breakout is the one who the Astros received. Gomez no longer looks like a Gold Glove centerfielder and his power seems to have disappeared altogether. The former Brewer All Star is striking out often and walking only in moderation. The results so far are a centerfielder who is playing slightly below average defense and making a ton of outs with no power to show for it. His slash line as of this writing is .221/.291/.333 which would be bad for a backup shortstop, much less a starting outfielder who once appeared capable of carrying an offense. Remember that 8.5 WAR? Gomez is currently porting a WAR of negative 0.4. Why has he fallen so far? That is the question the Astros would pay a million dollars to answer. ‘Nuff said, eh?
    Having a left fielder who can also play right, and more importantly, center is quite a luxury. Colby Rasmus, another athletic Astros outfielder, was the first player ever to take the qualifying offer. Yes, ever in the history of the universe! So maybe the rule has only been around for a few years, but still – first ever. Qualifying offers are made to players who can become free agents. The amount of the qualifying offer is the average major league salary for the top 125 players from the past season. Teams make these offers so that if/when the player declines the offer and signs with another team, the original team gets a high pick in the draft as compensation for losing the player. I think teams were getting cocky knowing that nobody had taken the offer so they were gambling by making qualifying offers to players they didn’t really want back at that price. The qualifying offer this off-season was $15.8 million, a hefty price even it was just for one year. Surprise – a few players actually took the offers this time, including Colby.
    Rasmus is not a bad player, in fact he is quite useful and has posted WAR of 2.6 and 4.8 in two of the last three seasons sandwiched around a down year where he only accumulated 1.0 WAR. He is currently on track for another WAR in the twos but is slumping mightily with the bat. Defense runs hot and cold with Rasmus. He saved only two runs last season and actually cost the team six runs in his down year, but in 2012 and 2013 he saved his team seven and 12 runs respectively. His bat is capable of producing serious power. In 2015 he had his best power year banging 25 homers and a total of 50 extra base hits. But Rasmus tends to be an all or nothing hitter and last year was no exception as he struck out 154 times, walked 47 times and only managed a .314 on-base percentage. His career slash line is about what teams should expect from him now with a bit more power possible: .245/.315/.440. The glove/bat combo and the versatility makes him a good guy to have on your roster, although not for $15.8 million. The Astros are using his as their starting left fielder and can count on him to hang around two WAR. If they could make him their 4th outfielder, still get him the at bats, and upgrade in left, that would be a great development for their playoff chances.
    While Colby Rasmus would be a special 4th outfielder, Jake Marisnick is the actual 4th outfielder, a job that he has held onto because of his glove and his speed and the belief, based on his status as a one-time top prospect with the Marlins, that his tools would turn into something. He also has bit of pop to go with his speed and his glove, but his hit tool is weak and his plate discipline is in the horrid range. Marisnick is only 25, and built like an NFL wide receiver (6’4”, 220), so it’s possible that he will develop a bit more given playing time. Last season, it looked like Jake might be establishing himself, but he still couldn’t get his OBP to .300 and his strikeouts to walks were a frightening 105/18 in 372 plate appearances. His minor league numbers portend a bit more for Marisnick, but after about 850 plate appearances in the majors, you have to think that you are seeing the true Jake. If he can cobble together more 2.0 WAR seasons then he helps the Astros win. If he does what he is doing this season with a slash line so far of .173/.233/.255, then he will have to move on to find more opportunities for playing time as the Astros push for a playoff spot.
    Of the young outfielders toiling away in the high minors, only Teoscar Hernandez is doing much to be excited about. At 23, Hernandez is just getting his first taste of triple-A. 2015 was ugly for the speedy and powerful outfielder. He got mugged by double-A, but started 2016 back in the same spot and got his revenge. Upon his promotion to triple-A, Hernandez has kept up the good work with a batting average over .300, albeit in a very small sample size. If he can keep his on-base percentage up then he might be worth auditioning in Houston this season. He has some power and excellent speed plus enough glove to not be a disaster manning all three outfield spots – he has played center and right. As long as triple-A pitchers don’t run him over in the next month, Jake Marisnick should fear for his roster spot.
    The Astros have a good, but unpredictable outfield with one budding star (Springer), one fading star (Gomez), and one expensive, athletic, flawed, versatile player they didn’t expect to have back (Rasmus). It’s an interesting group with Springer likely to be the only one who will still be on the team next year as Gomez and Rasmus are both going to be free agents. It is unclear what they will do down the stretch or next year as their best options might still be a year or more away. If the Astros think their time is now, then they might make a move outside the organization. If they still think they are a year or two away then they will likely go with internal solutions or just stand pat with their outfield. No matter what they do, their outfield will be athletic and fun to watch in 2016.

The Astros are on the brink of having an unbelievable young infield, but will it be in time for this season?

Shoot, Luke, or Give Your Dad The Gun.
by Jim Silva

    When the Astros put together an 86 win season in 2015 many people spoke of them having arrived early and being poised to make an even bigger jump in 2016. The leap from winning 70 games to winning 86 games is impressive and surprising, but when teams make leaps like that, they don’t always hang on to all of the gain. There is often some regression to the mean that bites them in the butt. But after making that huge jump – and make no mistake, 16 wins is a huge jump – the Astros were the hit pick to emerge from the American League to face the Cubs in the 2016 World Series. The young and exciting Astros were pre-season darlings in large part due to their fabulous double play combination of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. While those two youngsters are certainly worth the ticket to watch play, does the rest of the Astros infield have enough to support a realistic run at the post-season?
    What does it take to win an MVP these days? Take a look at Jose Altuve’s start to 2016 and you might find the answer. The 26 year old second baseman is leading the league in hits, batting average, on-base percentage, and stolen bases while playing good defense up the middle. He will almost certainly eclipse his previous high in home runs (15) as we are not quite halfway through the schedule and he already has poked 13 long balls. Arguably an equally important improvement in his game is that he is already within one walk of his previous season high. If we want to get into a chicken v. egg argument here, it would be reasonable to point to the walks as the reason he is hitting so many more home runs. It is certainly the reason why he will demolish his previous high in runs scored (86) as he already has scored 60 times. The Astros fans can say, “My second baseman is better than your second baseman” to pretty much any team in baseball with smug certainty.
    Carlos Correa came into 2016 with hugely unfair expectations heaped upon his shoulders. Part of it is his fault because he had such a great three-fifths of a season in 2015 while still unable to go to a bar and order more than a Roy Rogers. People, and by people I mean people who talk and write about sports for money, were picking Correa to win the MVP. It is easy to understand why Correa is expected to carry the entire team on his shoulders at 6’4, but he just turned 21 this season. He looks even taller when standing next to his double play partner Altuve who is only 5’6, but that doesn’t mean he can fly or hit five run homers. He should still face some kind of development arc. You can’t help but feel like people are disappointed by Correa’s start. He is striking out more and not hitting for quite as much power, but his walks are up significantly and so is his on-base percentage (up 20 points at this moment) so he is clearly showing development. If he keeps this pace with no improvement he will end the season with 30 doubles and 25 home runs, 80 runs scored, and 100 runs batted in all, while playing at least league-average defense. Is there a team in baseball who wouldn’t take that from their 21 year old shortstop in his first full season in the majors? No, there is not.
    The middle pair are not the guys anyone will worry about – at least nobody wearing an Astros uniform. It’s the corners that keep the Astros brass up at night. Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena have covered first and third respectively for most of the games in the first half of the season. Valbuena did his Luis Valbuena thing last season, which is hitting a lot of home runs, hitting for a low average and walking some, all while playing average defense at the corners. He had a 2.1 WAR season, his best to date, so he was useful and barely adequate as a starter. His splits were bipolar as he hit 19 home runs in the first half but with only a .285 OBP, then slowed his home run rate in the second half but increased his OBP to .359, which is quite good. This season, our man Luis has picked up where he left off in the second half, hitting nine long balls so far and managing a nifty .359 on-base percentage. Valbuena is mostly playing 3rd base and is on pace to have his best season. He has been on a tear of late, but he is far from a sure thing. If he can hit the same mark he hit last season – a WAR above 2.0 – then the Astros should be content. If they are counting on more than that then they are delusional as Valbuena is 30 years old and is what he is at this point.
    Like Valbuena, Marwin Gonzalez is positionally flexible. In fact, while Valbuena has played first and third plus one appearance at second, Gonzalez has played every infield position except for pitcher and catcher, and has played some outfield as well. Having someone on your team who can do that is what allows teams to keep 13 pitchers and not get into jams where you have to put your pitcher in left field. He is slightly better than average with the glove and can hit enough to play for long stretches without costing the team. Unlike Valbuena, he doesn’t walk enough, but he does hit for some power – a 10 to 15 homer full season is easily in reach – and he hits enough doubles to keep his slugging percentage in the 400s. He also manages to keep his on-base percentage acceptable because he hits for a decent average.
    The two men together cover the corners for the Astros without hurting them, but also without driving them toward the pennant. They are best suited for part-time work and in that role supporting a stronger bat ahead of them, they would definitely be championship caliber ballplayers. The Astros farm system is good and players continue to come up to compete for the corner jobs, but so far Valbuena and Gonzalez have hung on to the lion’s share of the work load. That is unlikely to last forever, especially if the Astros have plans of winning the World Series. I’m not saying that a team can’t win without stars at the corners, but the Astros offense is currently slightly below league average in runs scored and they are playing in a neutral park (no real advantage to hitters or pitchers in terms of runs scored). They will not change out their two stars in the middle, nor do they need to, but corner infielders, especially first basemen, who can produce runs are not particularly difficult to come by.
    The Astros made some trades involving some of their best prospects during the off-season, but still were ranked as having the 17th best farm system by Keith Law in the spring. One of their youngsters who challenged for the first base job is Tyler White. After a solid start, White fell off and was sent back to triple-A. White has hit all through the minors and hit with power as his .308/.416/.489 slash line attests. He also has contributed 38 home runs in 1076 at bats, so he will get another shot to show that he can hit big league pitching.
    Colin Moran plays third base and has hit for average everywhere he has played throughout his minor league career. He is currently at triple-A and looks like he might be good for ten home runs in a full major league season, so he is solid but unexciting. In a brief visit to Houston he struck out six times walking once but without hitting anything for extra bases in 19 plate appearances for a .105/.150/.105 slash line. Yes, it was a very small sample size but the point is the Astros would love someone to wrest a corner job away from Gonzalez and/or Valbuena and Moran didn’t.
    Jon Singleton is only 24 and was a very exciting power-hitting prospect as he made his way through the minors. Boy, can he hit for power! He has 111 minor league home runs in 2493 at-bats. He has also learned to take a walk and currently holds a .379 career minor league on-base percentage. That is even more impressive when you learn that his career minor league batting average is only .268. And therein lies the problem – Jon Singleton can’t hit enough to stick in the majors. He strikes out too much, and while he would likely hit a lot of home runs, he would struggle to hit .200. He already has 347 at bats in the bigs and his slash line is not pretty – .171/.290/.331. While he has hit 14 home runs in that time, he has struck out a daunting 151 times. As a testament to how far he has fallen, he hasn’t been called up to the majors this year even when White and Moran were sent back down.
    The other Matt Duffy is 27 and belongs to the Astros. He is currently struggling at triple-A and in spite of a record of success in the minors it looks like he is destined to toil away in triple-A until he retires or moves on to another club as a minor league free agent. Duffy hits for some power and gets on base enough to be an asset, but for some reason the Astros have only given him 11 at bats in the majors even though they need an upgrade at third base and he might fit that description. This is his third season at triple-A and the Astros might benefit from trying him even if it is only to give him exposure so he can be traded for something they want since they don’t appear to want him.
    And then there is Alex Bregman who just reached triple-A. He was just drafted last year and has had an excellent 2016 after a good 2015 in his first try at professional baseball. Bregman was drafted as a shortstop and has played there almost exclusively. You may have heard of this Correa fellah the Astros have on their team – he’s kinda good. So what do the Astros do? They could certainly get a lot for Bregman in a trade in light of his speedy rise through the minors. Or, you know, they could teach him to play third base, which, it turns out they are doing. He has only played 11 games at third – all at double-A – but don’t be surprised if he gets more time there now that he is in triple-A. Bregman hits for power, doesn’t strike out, and gets on base. In his short professional career he has walked 72 times while only fanning 57 times. He started the season as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball and will likely start next season as a top five prospect after his 2016 campaign.
    The Astros recently called up A.J. Reed from triple-A, and while he has struggled to control the strike zone so far, he is only 23 and in his third season of professional baseball. What young Andrew Joseph Reed has done so far in the minors is hit like nobody’s business. He has hit for power, gotten on base frequently, drawn plenty of walks and hit for average while playing acceptable defense at first base. His career slash line from the minors so far is .311/.399/.566 and if that sounds like a cleanup hitter to you then you are a wise human. However he may not be ready yet, if his start in the majors is to be believed. After all he only had 222 at bats at triple-A and started last season at single-A. He has struck out in almost half of his plate appearances while notching two home runs. Reed is likely the long term answer at first, but maybe not the answer for now. If he can rally, then he makes the lineup more scary and the bench much deeper by pushing Gonzalez or Valbuena out of the starting lineup. An infield of Bregman and Reed at the corners and Correa and Altuve up the middle is a terrifying thought for the rest of the AL – thank goodness that won’t happen for a bit longer (or will it?)
    With so many answers – some good, some exciting, and some neither, what do the Astros do? The answer has a lot to do with how close they are to a playoff spot at the trade deadline. They are currently winning at a furious pace which just makes things harder. Do you stick with what you’ve got and hope it is enough? Do you patiently try some of your youngsters who should, but haven’t yet done the job in the majors? Do you bring up your best prospect and have him switch positions even though he is only 22 and has yet to spend a full season in the minors? Do you put your young beast at first and let him struggle until he figures it out so he is ready for the playoffs? Certainly any time you have a chance to make it to the post-season, you do what it takes to maximize your chances of that happening. The Astros are very young and should have several opportunities to make the playoffs so they don’t have to choose the nuclear option and trade all their young players for veteran sluggers. A measured response would be appropriate and it should be interesting to watch what the Houston Astros do as they try to catch the Rangers and fulfill all the pre-season prognostications made about them.

The Astros catchers aren’t awful, but are they championship caliber?

Strong Up The Middle?
by Jim Silva

    The Astros are one of the youngest, most exciting teams in baseball in spite of their ugly start, but their catching is neither particularly young, nor especially exciting. In fact, (yawn), their current catching cohort of Jason Castro and Evan Gattis might be the biggest weakness the Astros have. That puts the Astros in a tough spot. Do they dance with the one that brought them or find a prettier date to go to the fancy dress ball (where the fancy dress ball is the post-season)? As the Astros surge and make themselves appear relevant again, the trade deadline gets closer and Jeff Lunhow will need to decide if this season is a wash, is their catching enough, or do they have a shot at a playoff run that will be worth trading for an upgrade at catcher. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves – first a look at the current state of catching in Houston.
    Jason Castro was once young and exciting as he won a berth in the All Star game in 2013 at the age of 26. When your catcher makes the All Star game that is something to get excited about. There is an aphorism about being strong up the middle, which says essentially that your team will be as good as your catcher, middle infielders, and center fielder, so you can see why the Astros may have shown a bit of enthusiasm about young Mr. Castro. But Jeff Lunhow is not one to fall in love after one good date, and when Castro’s bat went the way of Pterodactyls and Betamax, the Astros GM went and traded for Evan Gattis, who was at the time, young and exciting, although only marginally considered a catcher. In fact, Gattis spent his first year with the Astros not catching and it looked like he had hung up the tools of ignorance for good, but catching is hard to find – even marginal to bad catching, so Gattis put on the steel cup and the other accoutrements of the job and started squatting again this season, at least from time to time. It wasn’t so much that all of a sudden Gattis learned some tricks from Johnny Bench as Castro learned some from Mario Mendoza, i.e. how to hit around .200, and that is where things stand today.
    What happened to Castro? Well, for starters, his glove is still excellent. He currently leads MLB with nearly 13 runs saved – most of that comes from his excellent pitch framing. His arm is usually around league average, although he has been awful this season allowing 18 steals in 22 attempts. His career caught-stealing rate is 26% where league average is 28%. Bottom line, he is near the top of the class for defensive catchers. What made him an All Star in 2013 was adding the bat to the arsenal. Seemingly out of nowhere he put up 4.1 points of offensive WAR (Wins above what a replacement level player would contribute). He had never, and has never ventured out of the single oWAR except for that shining Camelotesque 2013. Expectations are not your friend – once you’ve done something once, everyone expects you to do it again since it appears to be part of your skill set. Another reason that Castro’s hitting inspired people to say, “Yep, knew he was going to hit like that in the bigs,” was his success in the minors. His career minor league slash line is .293/.382/.422. He looked like a guy who would get on base with doubles power and at least a decent average. Package that with his framing ability and a solid arm and you have a perennial All Star, right? Even before his breakout 2013, Castro looked like that would be the norm for him in the majors. He drew walks and hit enough to make it so the Astros could plug him in and forget about him. Unfortunately, since 2013 Castro’s numbers have dropped each season to the point where he is now batting in the low .200s. In 2014 and 2015 he hit .222 and .211 respectively and today carries a .209 average.  In the past two seasons he didn’t draw enough walks to push his on-base percentage close to .300. At least this season he is walking more which has boosted his on-base percentage to .333 so far. Bottom line: he is making way too many outs and now looks like a catch and throw backup or at best a glove first catcher who can hit a homerun from time to time. That is not what the Astros thought they were getting when they took him with the 10th pick of the 2008 draft or when they saw him wear the Astros’ jersey in the 2013 All Star showcase.
    Evan Gattis is what he is – a power-hitting, uh power hitter. Yep, that’s what he is. He hits home runs – 81 of them in his first 1593 major league plate appearances. The problem with Gattis is that he doesn’t seem to get much of a chance to wear a glove that isn’t for batting and that depresses his value to a team quite a bit. In 2015, at the age of 28, it had already been decided that not only was Gattis not even an emergency catcher (zero games behind the plate), but he was only an emergency left fielder (11 games in left), which left him as a young designated hitter. There is very little room for decline if you are already at the very end of the defensive spectrum. His bat, and only his bat, would decide his fate. Good thing he hits lots and lots of home runs, eh? Well, yes, but there are problems. Problems like not getting on base. His on-base percentage for each of the last three seasons has been damning – .291, .317, and .285 respectively. Much like Mr. Castro (Jason, not Fidel) Gattis makes way too many outs. Castro has the advantage of a stellar glove where Gattis had no glove at all, or did he?
    Someone in the Astros stat head room (that’s gotta be a thing, right?), must have looked at Gattis’ pitch framing numbers from his time in Atlanta and noticed that he was actually a pretty solid pitch framer, having saved 6.1 and 3.5 runs in 2013 and 2014 by his framing efforts. In fact, in 2013 his relatively soft hands saved his team 6.2 runs – solid work from a guy who can crush the ball. In 2014 his throwing cost him and he only saved 0.9 runs, which is not good work for a defensive catcher, but again, if the guy can smash the ball why not use him back there as your backup catcher? Apparently the Astros agreed as they have been using him and his essentially neutral D this season. His throwing in the 14 games behind the plate has been surprisingly good as he has nailed six of the 13 runners attempting to steal on him – well above league average in a small sample size. The only problem with this situation, which would seem like a win if he can play at least neutral defense behind the plate, is the apparent death of his bat. He is still hitting the ball hard when he makes contact; unfortunately he is striking out at the rate of 25.7%, after a 2015 rate of 19.7. This has led to a batting average of .212, which is unacceptable, especially when his increase in walks has only bumped his on-base percentage to .286 so far.
    Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. That seems to be where the Astros are in the catching department. Castro is an excellent defender with a hole-filled bat, while Gattis is at best a neutral defender with power who doesn’t get on base enough to warrant his playing time. Max Stassi is the guy who you’d think would get the next chance to be the backup catcher, should the Astros decide an all catch/no-hit approach is the way to go for the second half. Stassi really can’t hit. He can’t hit major league pitching, he can’t hit minor league pitching; he can’t hit in a boat or in a moat; he just plain can’t hit as his career minor league slash line of .244/.310/.413 attests. He has a reputation for being a good defensive catcher, but his career caught stealing rate of 28.5% is just solid. His overall defensive statistical totals look good so I have to assume he is a good pitch framer, but I can’t see the Astros seeing him as part of a championship club.
    There is another guy at triple-A, Tyler Heineman. Heineman is in his first full season at triple-A and has eventually hit everywhere he has played leading to a career minor league slash line of .285/.364/.402. With a 39.4 career caught-stealing rate in the minors it looks like the arm is there. Based on his development pattern to date, it would be nice if the Astros could leave him at triple-A for at least a full season. Do the Astros have enough time to wait?
    Their catching is a place where they could improve. If the Astros intend to improve it somehow, there are currently two avenues to get the job done: promote one of the minor leaguers or trade for a veteran they know can do the job. Everybody is looking at Jonathan Lucroy who is back from wherever his game went last season. But the Brewers will ask for the moon and a planet with an atmosphere to trade him, as they should. Instead of looting their minor league system to get a Lucroy-level catcher, the Astros should look at someone like Stephen Vogt. Vogt isn’t a great catcher but he is essentially league-average as a defender with good throwing numbers (34% caught stealing rate this season) and he isn’t off to his best offensive season. That said, he won’t be costly to obtain, he will hit better in Houston than in the cavernous Oakland Alameda County Coliseum, and he is already hitting better than the catchers the Astros are running out there everyday. Another advantage that Vogt brings to the table is his positional versatility. Vogt can play left and first base. It doesn’t have to be Vogt, but Lucroy will be incredibly expensive and the Astros catching won’t kill them as is.
    Whatever the Astros decide, it had better happen in the next few weeks. If they decide to stand pat, then fine, but if they want to look toward next season, they need to get Gattis right and ship him to a team that needs a DH. I doubt many teams see him as a catcher anymore since the Astros didn’t use him there last season. Once they move Gattis they have a chance to look at their two triple-A backstops before the off-season so they can decide if there is anything there worth using as something other than a “break glass in case of emergency” catcher.

The Red Sox infield drama of the spring has been resolved, so how is that working out for Sox fans so far?

Pablo’s Belt, Hanley’s Glove
by Jim Silva

    This spring was quite the fun time for Red Sox Nation. They got to watch a battle to the death between Pablo Sandoval and his appetite with the winner being Travis Shaw. They had the pleasure of watching Hanley Ramirez learn his second new position in two years – this time first base. When you are a fan of a team with as much money as the Red Sox it must be surprising to see shenanigans like this going on at the corners of your infield, but the Red Sox are trying to make the best of two big mistakes they made last year. Let’s look at those moves and the rest of the infield picture for 2016.
    The middle of the infield is set for 2016 and at least a couple years after with two stars turning the double play. The Red Sox appear to have taken the aphorism about being strong up the middle to heart. Dustin Pedroia has never had a bad season in the majors since he became a regular, although his 2015 was besieged by injuries (a problem for our hero over the last few seasons) and caused him to put up his worst numbers, from a cumulative standpoint, of his career. Middle infielders don’t generally age well. They get beat up playing around second base and getting taken out by slides. It will be interesting to see what happens to middle infielder longevity with the change to the sliding rule. I imagine the Pedroia family had an extra serving of crab cakes when that rule change was announced.
    In his prime, Laser Show did almost everything well and has been well loved for it with a Rookie of the Year award, four All Star game appearances, a Silver Slugger, four Gold Gloves, and an MVP award in 2008. He is everything you’d want in a son (if you were a baseball manager) and more! Last year he was off to a great start when his hamstring popped and then re-popped effectively ruining his season. If he can stay healthy it is reasonable to expect an excellent year out of him with the bat. Pedroia has accumulated 45.2 WAR in his 11 seasons (nine full seasons) so if he can have an average season of say 4.0 WAR, then he is a huge asset, especially for a middle infielder. His career slash line of .299/.365/.444 is about what you’d expect from him at this point in his career. Not everything is roses for the Muddy Chicken (this guy has more nicknames than you do!).
    Pedroia used to be good for 20+ stolen bags but dropped to six in 2014 and 2 in his injury-marred 2015. And he shouldn’t steal anymore! He is 8 for his last 16 attempts in the last two seasons which means he is costing the team runs. But that is small potatoes compared to what his aggression running the bases has done to the team. In 2015 Pedroia cost the Red Sox 16 runs. The other area where the numbers are causing questions about how Petey (how many nicknames does a brother need?) is going to age is defense. The numbers over the last several seasons have supported his reputation as an elite defender with DRS from 2011 through 2014 of 18, 11, 15, and 17. But last season, perhaps due to the balky hammy, he dropped to -3. If the Crimson Crocodile (sorry – made that one up – couldn’t help it) can stay healthy this season we will be able to see if this is the beginning of decline or just a statistical anomaly (or maybe his game truly was altered by his injury).
    From the batter’s perspective, the man standing to Pedroia’s left is another potential perpetual All Star – Xander Bogaerts. Finally (Bogaerts was only 22 last season but has been on the Red Sox radar for years now) the young shortstop broke out. His slash line was .320/.355/.421 and represented an 80 point jump in batting average, a 58 point jump in OBP and a 59 point leap in slugging. Bogaerts also stole 10 bags while only being caught twice – he was two for five  in his first full season, 2014. His offensive blossoming earned him the Silver Slugger award as the best hitting shortstop in the American League. One caution for the Red Sox faithful – those lofty offensive stats were compiled on the back of a .372 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which is pretty lucky and could portend a regression. Or not – Bogaerts is killing it this season with over 100 hits before the All Star break.
    The stats say that the shortstop from Aruba is just an average shortstop with the glove, but that is a step up from where he was just a year ago. In 2014 Xander (who shockingly doesn’t have a nickname) cost the Sox 16 runs due to a lack of range and a scattergun arm, while last season he improved to a DRS of -1 – so basically neutral. Bogaerts has become a top of the order hitter and average defender, which from the shortstop position is extremely valuable. Could he be more? His minor league numbers showed a lot more power than he flashed last year. In high-A/AA he hit 37 doubles and 20 homers – that was in 2012. He even hit 28 doubles and 12 homers in 2014, his first season in the minors. So is he a budding power hitter or a batting average machine? Maybe he is both. If he took a different approach last season to become a top of the order guy because that’s what the Red Sox needed, then that shows that he can make adjustments – a tremendous attribute for a young player. It means he might be able to merge those two players into one and ultimately become a solid glove man who hits 20 homers while hitting .280 – in other words a superstar.
    Ah the corners! Last year the Red Sox made a big, weird splash by spending enough money to choke a horse to sign Pablo Sandoval (5 years and $95 million with an option year) and Hanley Ramirez (4 years and $88 million with an option year). There is nothing wrong with a team with deep pockets like the Red Sox throwing some of their money around to improve the club, but it was widely agreed that what they needed to spend their money on was starting pitching. So the 2015 season started with Sandoval at third and Ramirez making the switch from shortstop, where he was a butcher on the order of Sweeney Todd, to left field. It turned into a complete disaster defensively with the pair combining to cost the team 30 runs.
    So this year the plan coming into spring training was for Sandoval (Kung Fu Panda, and not for his martial arts skills) to get into better shape over the winter, and Hanley to work hard making the switch to first base. One of those two things happened and one didn’t. The Round Mound of Pound (why do the Sox have so many nicknames?) came into camp looking like both of his nicknames and was a butcher at third, but Ramirez by all accounts put in a lot of work and embraced the move back to the infield looking at least decent at first. When teams like the Red Sox say that there is open competition at a position between an expensive veteran and a youngster they almost never mean it. This time it appears that they meant it as they gave the starting third base job to Travis Shaw and benched the Panda.
    Truly the plan went wrong when they signed Sandoval in the first place when they had substantial data to tell them that he wasn’t going to be close to worth the money they offered him. Sandoval wasn’t a bad player. In fact he was a good player whose value came from his ability to switch-hit doubles and 10 to 15 homers without striking out all over the place. A career .287/.339/.451 slash line is worth something, but when your third baseman is 5’11” and weighs 255 pounds you have to know that he isn’t going to age well. Moreover, he was already starting to show that his peak was aberrant when he hit 23 homers and batted .315 as a 24 year old. His highest homer total in the four seasons between that 6.1 WAR season and 2014 was 16 in 2014 with his batting average peaking at .283 in 2012. What he had become was a .278 hitting third baseman who would hit 15 or so homers and get on base at a .330ish clip for a WAR of 3.0ish. Not bad, but not worth $19 million or more than a two year contract. Oh no – not even close. What’s more is that his glove work has been all over the place but trending toward mediocre. In 2011 he developed a reputation based on a truly excellent 14 DRS season. Since then he has had only one season with a positive DRS (4 in 2014) while putting up negative numbers during all his other campaigns (-4 in 2012, -5 in 2013). So what were the Red Sox paying for? They were paying for a superstar in the prime of his career, and what they got was a declining sporadic player with weight problems who rewarded them by putting up his worst season ever in the majors. Panda cost the team 11 runs with the glove according to DRS, hit 25 doubles and 10 homers but posted a slash line of .245/.292/.366 for a WAR of -2.6. They would have done better putting a poster of Rico Petrocelli on a traffic cone at third but letting Sandoval bat against righties (.266 average with all 10 of his homers), and then just taking the automatic out when he had to face a lefty (.197 average and a .231 slugging percentage). It was an expensive nightmare Sox fans will not soon forget, and Sandoval made sure of that by reporting to camp with his gut hanging over his baseball pants.
    The situation with Ramirez wasn’t great either but there is hope. Hanley Ramirez was a legitimate superstar when he was a young shortstop. He averaged 5.8 WAR for his first four years as the starting shortstop for the Marlins (after a trade from the Red Sox) and he combined high batting averages with 25 home run power, but he was just average with the glove at best. But you know, that was a few years ago, and since then he has proven over and over again that he doesn’t have a solid glove at short and would cost his team runs to keep his bat in the lineup. The bat though – wow – it was always good to great. With the Dodgers in 2013 and 2014 Ramirez put up 5.1 and 4.6 offensive WAR respectively. So it wasn’t unreasonable to think that a guy athletic enough to play shortstop could move to the next to the last stop on the defensive spectrum and at least manage not to stink up the joint. But stink it up he did to the tune of -19 DRS with some memorable blunders that made the lowlight reels of Sports Center. Again, this shouldn’t have been a total surprise to the Red Sox brain trust because Han-Ram had an average DRS of -10.4 for the last five seasons at a position he had played for years and he wasn’t exactly lauded for his work ethic.
    But what of his stick? Here is where everyone was surprised. Aside from the 19 home runs, Hanley failed to hit, posting an offensive WAR of 0.8 – more than a point below what you would expect from an average starter in the bigs. His batting average dropped to .249 – well below his career mark of .296, which dragged his on-base percentage below .300 for the first time in his career. Ramirez also mostly stopped running, dropping from 14 successful steals in 2014 to 6 in 2015. This wouldn’t be the first time the dreadie-wearing batsman had an off year and came back, but he is now 32 with many seasons of getting beaten up around the bag. Could it be that he is in decline, or does he have a few more seasons of hitting mastery in him? Unlike Sandoval, Ramirez isn’t carrying around a lot of extra weight and he reported to camp in shape and worked hard to become a decent first baseman. All indications are that he is in for a rebound year at first base. He blistered the ball in spring and it looks like his dip last season might have been due to a banged up shoulder that is now healed. If Hanley can handle first and hit like Hanley then the Red Sox ship might turn in the right direction. So far his first half numbers have been mostly “meh”, especially for a first-baseman. Han-Ram is going to have to step it up to be more than average this season.
    So with Sandoval collecting large sums of money to not play, what do the Red Sox have in Travis Shaw, their new third baseman? Last year Shaw made his major league debut and acquitted himself nicely banging 13 homers in less than half a season (248 plate appearances). He hit .270 with an OBP of .327 not drawing many walks (18) while striking out 57 times. Based on his minor league numbers it is clear that his power is legit as he has banged 69 home runs in the equivalent of just over three seasons. He also showed on-base skills with a minor league career OBP of .359 so perhaps the security of a starting job will allow him to relax and take a few more walks.
    Shaw played first base primarily although he saw five starts at third and played left once. In the minors he played about four times as much at first as he did at third, but still managed almost 900 innings at third. It’s not clear why the Red Sox didn’t try to turn him into a full-time third baseman since that is much more valuable than a first baseman. If he is good enough to play there, then you would think they would put him there and leave him there. So it is reasonable to worry that his glove isn’t good enough to stick at the hot corner. It is clear however that his glove is better than Sandoval’s at this point as Panda’s glove work in spring was described as “unplayable” by people who actually saw him “play”. If Shaw takes to third and is decent then it’s a win for the Red Sox, especially if they can figure out a way to salvage the Panda Predicament. He is lost for the season after a mysterious shoulder injury led to season-ending shoulder surgery. If this disaster of a career turn is enough to light a fire under Sandoval and he can get into shape and play, then the Sox would have a really nice problem on their hands, but not until 2017. One thing to ponder is that in 2017 David Ortiz will have retired and they will need a new fixture at DH. If Panda can resurrect his bat it could be his job.
    Brock Holt and Josh Rutledge made up the infield part of the bench at the start of the season. Holt plays everywhere except catcher, pitcher, and batboy (slacker!) and is a reasonable answer at all of them. He did best at second and in the outfield and worst at third and short, but the fact that he can play everywhere without killing your team makes him truly valuable. His bat isn’t exciting but it is solid which is what makes him such a super sub. He now has 1175 major league plate appearances with a slash line of .277/.338/.376 so he hits like a middle infielder. He also has 21 stolen bases in 24 attempts so while he doesn’t run often, he does it well. The lack of pop with only six home runs in his first 1145 plate appearances is supported by 2070 minor league plate appearances with only 15 “long” balls so don’t expect him to go all Jose Canseco on you just because he has started the season with two homers. One nice development last season was an increase in walks that pushed his OBP from .331 to .349. There isn’t a team that wouldn’t be thrilled to have such a versatile player on their bench and one who can hit a little at that. But as soon as the Red Sox get fancy (trading Pedroia for an arm) and try to make him a starter he just becomes a starter who can hit a little and is ok with the glove.
    Rutledge is confusing. When he played for the Rockies he had moments where it looked like he might be a power-hitting starting middle infielder. Rutledge’s raw offensive stats look kind of like Holt’s with a career slash line of .261/.310/.398. Translated to 162 games they look like this:

Plate Appearances
2b
3b
Home Runs
SB/CS
Holt
652
31
7
4
12/2
Rutledge
548
23
7
11
11/2
Holt has a few more doubles but Rutledge has more home run power. Their stat lines above also show that Holt has better strike zone command than Rutledge does but slugs less. So it wouldn’t be hard to argue for one over the other if you are only talking about their bats. Until last season, Rutledge had only played 2nd and short but the Sox tried him at 3rd a few times. He has played mostly shortstop during his major league and minor league career with a decent amount of time spent manning 2nd and 132 innings at 3rd over the last two seasons in the minors. Unlike Holt, he generally hurts you with the glove. He has never had a positive dWAR in any of his four tours of the bigs so you really don’t want him out there too long. Both his range and fielding percentage are mostly below league average with range being the worse of the two devils. If Holt can hold down the middle while Rutledge can take over at third from time to time where his limited range wouldn’t be as noticeable, the Red Sox might have something. Rutledge and his decent power would be a nice bat to pinch hit for you when you have guys on base you want to drive in, while Holt could pinch hit to start an inning. Not a bad combination to have on the bench.
    Marco Hernandez and Mike Miller are filling in for Holt and Rutledge while they recover from injuries. Both players are place-holders as neither of them can hit a lick. Well, actually Hernandez has shown a decent hit tool, little power but a bit of speed, so it is possible that he could displace Rutledge. Miller and Hernandez both sport legit gloves so in the short term they will hold down the infield fort.
    Down on the farm the Bosox are growing themselves a fine crop of infielders led by third baseman Rafael Devers and second baseman Yoan Moncada. Moncada is getting the most press and looks like his bat and speed (49 steals in 52 attempts) could be devastating. He is at high-A so he could end up in the majors next year if everything breaks right for the 20 year old. Devers is more of a power hitter and so far has delivered on his promise although his 24 walks in 469 at bats is a small concern. That said, the guy can’t legally drink yet (he can barely see R-Rated movies!) and he is already raking at high-A. Ready and waiting at triple-A is glove man Deven Marrero. He is a rangy shortstop who won’t hit for much power or for a high average but will steal a base or 20 when he gets on. He would immediately be the best glove man at short if he joined the parent club but will have to wait for his chance. At 25, he is done cooking and would probably be a better fit for the bench than Rutledge who duplicates many of Holt’s abilities.
    The Red Sox made two bold moves that show they aren’t trying to make friends – their goal is to win and win now. It says a lot that they didn’t hesitate to admit their mistakes benching Sandoval and moving Ramirez to first. If it works, they are geniuses, if it backfires and they don’t win with these moves then angry Red Sox fans will gripe about the stupid signings of last seasons for years to come.

Can the Red Sox catchers recover from an ugly start, complicated by injuries, to contribute to a playoff drive?

A Potentially Unmatched Masked Duo
by Jim Silva

    Not many teams can say that they have two good catchers – even fewer can say that they have developed two good catchers who are major league ready. But the Red Sox are rich in the catching department and even have one man behind the dish who might be a star in the making. In Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez, the Red Sox might eventually have one of the best catching tandems in the majors. The 25 year old, Vazquez, started the season on the disabled list and it looked like Ryan Hanigan would be the stand-in who would be the odd man out as soon as Vazquez and Swihart were healthy at the same time, but as we approach the trade deadline, that isn’t exactly how it has played out. What can Red Sox fans look forward to from their catching crew?
    Swihart was one of the youngsters everyone was calling Dave Dombrowski about when the Red Sox were struggling and needed pitching. Dombrowski wisely held onto Swihart – good young catchers are much harder to find than pitchers these days. What makes Swihart even more valuable is that he is under team control for several more years. The young catcher was ranked in the top 20 by everyone who bothered to rank prospects in 2015. The Red Sox fan base can look forward to several years of watching Swihart hit because hit is what he does best. His major league audition looked similar to his minor league career hitting numbers. His minor league slash line of .286/.340/.427 shows Swihart to have a good hit tool with decent, although not world beating, power and good plate control that doesn’t result in many walks but does result in moderate strikeout numbers. Last season in 309 plate appearances he managed a slash line of .274/.319/.392 while striking out 77 times. Swihart has shown the ability to adjust and grow at each level so it is reasonable to expect his numbers to improve as he adjusts to the league and matures. At 24 he is young for a catcher so it is reasonable, even for objective non-Red Sox fans, to expect more from him offensively.
    Defensively, Swihart doesn’t have to be great to have value because he can hit for average and knock doubles enough to put him in the top five or so catchers in baseball. Although last season he only managed to throw out 28% of runners attempting petty theft (below the league average of 32%), his minor league career numbers show that he can throw, as he has nailed 39% of base-swipers since 2012. Swihart did allow the second most passed balls in baseball at 16 and cost his pitchers some runs with his framing (-7 DRS from his framing alone), but baseball people who watch him report that his physical tools and intelligence are cause for optimism that he will become at least an average defensive catcher.
    Christian Vazquez is the yang to Swihart’s yin. He is a defensive stud with a canon arm who saved the Red Sox 13.7 runs with his tremendous pitch framing skills. If the Red Sox had traded Swihart, they’d have been just fine running Vazquez out there to save games with his arm and glove instead of his bat – that is until he blew out his elbow and submitted to Tommy John surgery. If he can return to form (and if pitchers can, why not a catcher?) then he will continue to provide All Star quality defense when Swihart is catching a breather.
    As to Vazquez’ ability with the bat, it is reasonable to state that he won’t be an automatic out, but that he should probably bat in the 9th spot in the order on a good offensive team, which the Red Sox are. His minor league slash line is inflated by one monster season in the Sally League (high single-A) where he hit 18 homers, batted .283 and slugged .505. To date, his slash line in the minors is .267/.346/.393. There isn’t a lot of pop in his bat but there is some ability to get on base via the free pass including a season in double-A where he struck out 44 times while walking 47 times. With only 52 games at triple-A there is likely some development left in his bat. Even if he only hits .240/.308/.309 like he did in 2014 in his major league debut, with his arm and glove he is still valuable – especially as the short end of a catching pair that includes Swihart.
    The guy the Red Sox planned to pick up the slack while Vazquez rehabbed his arm is veteran and old guy (especially for a catcher) Ryan Hanigan. Hanigan has been someone’s backup catcher since 2007 and at the age of 35 is nearing the end of a good career. Hanigan has always had the ability to get on base as his career OBP of .352 will attest. But he achieves that robust on base percentage without the benefit of power or speed. He does it by walking more than he strikes out (career: 241 walks to 237 k’s), making him an anomaly in this age of free swingers. He also possesses a good arm according to his career caught stealing rate of 37%. The career backup saved the Red Sox 1.3 runs with his framing skills so with Vazquez out, the Red Sox calculated they would be fine until Hanigan is forced back down to Pawtucket to await the zombie apocalypse or an injury to one of the Red Sox catchers.
    Ah, the best laid plans… Yeah, it didn’t work out quite the way the Sox had planned. Vazquez came back and resumed his role of stud defensive backstop. His arm hasn’t quite looked the same yet. Runners have tested him a bit and while they haven’t made him look like a clown back there, his caught stealing rate is down to a merely mortal 35% at the time of this article. In other words his defense is just fine, thank you. His bat, on the other hand, has looked insufficient. His walk rate is down, along with his batting average and on-base percentage, while his strikeout rate is up. It is still early, especially for him, as he had to work his way back from surgery, so his off-season wasn’t the same as his teammates’. Still, the Sox have to be at least a little worried. And that’s not the least of it!
    Blake Swihart in left field. Yes, Blake Swihart, the 24 year old potential star catcher was playing mostly left field in a platoon with Chris Young when he ran into a wall and severely sprained his ankle. Even if Swihart doesn’t look like the second coming of Muddy Ruel behind the plate, why would you mess with his development as a catcher? Before his call up, he had thrown out 39% of base thieves. While he wasn’t hitting quite as well in the bigs as he had last season, there were some good signs that he was showing maturity as a hitter. Swihart had increased his walk rate while his strikeout rate had decreased a bit. Even though his average is down, his OPS is up because of the walks and three triples. I doubt anyone is seriously worried about Swihart’s stick so unless he is destroying the Red Sox pitching staff, why is he running around in left when Christian Vazquez is hitting under .220? Before going to the DL, Swihart had caught six games while spending 13 games in left (two more games than he had played in the outfield over his entire minor league career). It might take a while for Swihart to get back on the field, and it will be interesting to see how the Red Sox use him when he is healthy again. Is it possible that his misadventure in left that landed him on the DL was caused by inexperience?
    So now the Red Sox are starting Vazquez and using Sandy Leon as their backup because Hanigan is on the DL. Leon is only 27, but is seeing action in his fifth major league season this year with Boston. Leon is a weaker hitting version of Vazquez. He is the ultimate catch and throw guy behind the plate with a major league career slash line of .216/.291/.264 but a caught stealing rate of 45%. His hitting numbers look like a pitcher’s slash line while his throwing numbers look like Vazquez. The pairing of Vazquez and Leon matches top notch defense with mediocre to awful offense – and maybe the Red Sox can afford to give up one spot in the batting order as an automatic out, but they have Swihart who is anything but an automatic out. The Red Sox have some interesting decisions to make about their catchers.
    Having catching depth like the Red Sox have is a luxury in this age where apparently nobody wants to put on the tools of ignorance, and it means that at least at that position, the Sox will almost assuredly be ahead of the game. If desperation forces the need to trade a young player, either Vazquez or Swihart should bring back value and still leave the Red Sox in a better spot than most teams in baseball. The franchise that has featured Rick Ferrell and Pudge Fisk behind the plate is now set to watch two potentially great catchers, Swihart and Vazquez, try to find themselves. The player who isn’t anointed starter either gets traded or helps the winner of the battle extend his career behind the plate. The Red Sox seemingly can’t lose in this situation although I suppose they could screw it up somehow (like moving Swihart to the outfield). Oh, did I say that out loud?

The Giants have roared to the front of the NL West. Are there any dangers lurking out there that could derail them?

The Danger of Being Top Heavy
by Jim Silva

    The Giants are not a .500 team. Ok, well they were a .500 team for a while then rattled off eight wins in a row. There is no way they finish at or below .500 – they are just too good. Certainly there is always a way to look like a good team during the spring and turn it into a mediocre or bad team by late summer. The Angels didn’t look like world beaters during spring, until they lost two of their top starting pitchers and now have a nice four man rotation on the DL or about to go on the DL with Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Wilson hurting. The Cubs, who have an obscene amount of depth have been able to weather the loss of their starting left fielder Kyle Schwarber, but could they handle another major injury? Last year the Giants were hurt by injury about as much as your average team. They lost Hunter Pence, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Tim Hudson for a considerable amount of time. Pence’s absence probably hurt the most as the other three weren’t stars anymore, even if they were paid like stars.
    This off-season the Giants added about 400 innings of quality to their starting rotation after parting ways with Lincecum and seeing Hudson retire. They now have aces in the top three spots in the rotation with Madison Bumgarner returning and being joined by Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardizja. The rest of the rotation isn’t pretty, nor does it especially need to be to start the season. Jake Peavy and Matt Cain have seen better days, so the Giants will likely fill the 4th and/or 5th spots with Chris Heston, Clayton Blackburn, or Ty Blach at some point this season. None of them are anything to write home about but they should all work as 5th starters. The Giants don’t have any starting pitchers with star potential ready to jump to the big club from the high minors, which leads me to the following thought. There is something that could get the Giants into a lot of trouble – losing any of their top three starting pitchers might be enough to knock them not only out of contention, but to below .500 because they don’t have the pitching depth or the quality of minor leaguers to make a move to rally from such a loss.
    Peavy seems to have righted the ship a bit, lowering his ERA from the nines (yikes!), to a far more respectable 5.83 with an ERA from last two starts of 3.27. Cain also pitched better for a bit before landing on the DL again (twice actually) with hamstring strains. His ERA currently sits at 5.34 and the Giants have recalled Chris Stratton, who’s ERA of 6.02 in AAA this season is unlikely to get Giants’ fans excited. It’s curious that the Giants didn’t recall Chris Heston, Ty Blach, or Clayton Blackburn instead of Stratton. None of their AAA starters have impressed so far, although Blackburn has the lowest ERA of the bunch at 3.36. It is possible that the Giants expect Cain back soon so they took the pitcher least likely to be disrupted by a quick trip up to the bigs then back down. If so, then they are showing a lot of faith in Cain.
    What all this leads to is talk about the Giants trading for an arm at the trade deadline. Barring a barrage of injuries, they will likely win the NL West as the other teams in the division have had their flaws exposed early and haven’t addressed them yet. The question then becomes how will the Giants perform in the post-season? So the Giants, a team with excellent infield depth, a superstar at catcher, a solid bullpen, and decent outfield depth, are thin (but really strong at the top) at starting pitcher. You might respond, “Who isn’t thin in their rotation?”, and you’d have a good point. Three stud starters can take a team far in the playoffs, but again, if one of the big three gets hurt then rotation depth starts to matter. The Giants would have to rely on Peavy or Cain (or his replacement) and that could be their undoing. Other teams have lost one of their top three starting pitchers and gone deep into the post-season in recent years, right? Well yes, but what they had that the Giants don’t have currently was depth in their rotation and/or some stud prospects to trade for a top-of-the-line starting pitcher before the trade deadline. The Nationals, for example have both rotation depth AND high end prospects who would fetch a hefty return in trade. I would trade my car and throw in my favorite cousin for Trea Turner (for example). The Mets have insane depth in their rotation and some hot prospects to trade if the need arose – Amed Rosario, or Gavin Cecchini anyone? The Cubs don’t have great rotation depth but are stocked to the rafters with young, coveted prospects. Since the Giants passed on Tim Lincecum, who they could have signed for cheap without giving up a prospect, they will have to give up something to get a starter during the season – probably a valuable something.
    Once the Giants replace one of their faltering starting pitchers with one of the 5th starters they have toiling away for the Sacramento River Cats, what will they do if they need to do it again? They could trade away some of their major league depth – one of their utility infielders – Kelby Tomlinson (off to a great start, but currently on the DL) might fetch an arm to eat innings but not a top three starter, even as a rental. They would have to make a difficult choice, like trading away one of their young position players if they wanted quality back and that would hurt them on the field causing a problem where one didn’t previously exist. The Giants are top heavy in their rotation and don’t have enough depth to support the loss of one of their big guns. There are worse problems, like not having three great starting pitchers, but the Giants aren’t vulnerable in many places and this is one place that might be enough of an achilles heel to topple them if something goes wrong. Oh Timmy, where art though, Timmy? My kingdom for The Freak!

Next up – The Boston Red Sox, starting with a bit of history. What does it take to be considered a great Red Sox team?

So Close in ’46!
By Jim Silva

The Red Sox are off to a good start after some off-season moves, some maturation of prized rookies, and some positional adjustments of some expensive players. Will they win the World Series this year? Who knows; it is certainly possible. Are they the best Red Sox team ever? Well, obviously that is impossible to say at this point in the season, but the Red Sox have a very long history which, until 2004, had been filled with much futility and frustration. But while they went 96 years without a World Series championship, they had some really great teams that just failed to close the deal. The best – very possibly the 1946 Red Sox who made it to the World Series but lost in a heart-breaking seven game series to the Cardinals that included one extra inning game and a one run loss in game seven. Were they the best? Let’s take a look at that team led by Ted Williams and managed by Joe Cronin.
    A minor conflict called World War II had stolen Marine pilot/left fielder Ted Williams (talk about positional versatility!) from the Boston club. Team America held onto him for three seasons 1943, ’44, and ’45 when Ted was 24, 25, and 26. He was just coming off a 1942 season where he had won the triple crown after just missing it in 1941 (finishing fourth in RBI by five runs driven in while winning the batting title and home run crowns). He also hit .406 – the last man to eclipse .400. DiMaggio and his 56 game hitting streak won the MVP in 1942 even with substantially inferior batting numbers. Williams would lose two more seasons to the Korean War where he served some time as John Glenn’s wingman and had to land a shot-up plane on its belly with no landing gear, but that’s for another article. Williams would return from World War II as a 27 year old and pick up right where he had left off. While he didn’t win the Triple Crown, he did lead the league in several offensive categories including walks, on-base percentage, total bases, slugging, and runs scored. Williams would win the league MVP after finishing second two years in a row before his military service. Williams’ 1946 season was his best from a WAR standpoint – fortuitous pun intended. So was this like the Braves teams of “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain” where the team rode one or two stars to victory and would have collapsed completely without their elite? Certainly Teddy Ballgame was a superstar and his absence would and did cause trouble for the Red Sox, but the Boston club was loaded in 1946.
    The Red Sox did a lot of things better than the rest of the American League in 1946. They led the league in runs scored, walks, batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage to name a few statistical categories. Their team got on base at a .356 clip and was second in the league in home runs meaning that many of those long balls likely came with runners on base. The Sox were embodying Earl Weaver before Earl Weaver. Williams, of course, had a pretty large impact on the team’s OBP with his .497 effort, but center-fielder Dom DiMaggio got on base at a .393 clip, and shortstop Johnny Pesky at a .401 rate. This being Boston, the team cranked out a lot of doubles, leading the league in that category too. They were paced by Pesky with 43, but Williams, second baseman Bobby Doerr, and first baseman Rudy York all cracked at least 30.
    In the pitching department, the Red Sox hurlers managed a team ERA+ (park adjusted ERA relative to the rest of the league) of 108 where 100 is league average. So even in a hitter’s park the Red Sox managed to be better than league average by a solid margin. They got a career year out of starting pitcher Mickey Harris who would win 17 games – the only time he reached double digit victories or made the All Star team in his career. 24 year old Boo Ferris also managed his best season being credited with 25 wins, an .806 winning percentage, and an ERA of 3.25 in 274 innings. 30 year old ace, Tex Hughson hurled his last star-quality season, winning 20 games with an ERA of 2.75 over 278 innings, and leading the league with a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.37. Burrhead Dobson threw in 13 wins, mostly in the rotation, and even Jim Bagby, the Sox swingman, contributed league average innings and seven wins.
    In short, the 1946 Red Sox managed 104 wins in a 154 game season due to a combination of stars at their peak and players having career years at the same time. They had a superstar in his prime, a future Hall Of Fame member, one of the greatest hitters in baseball history, in Ted Williams. They had Bobby Doerr at second – another future Hall of Fame inductee. They had seven time All Star Dom DiMaggio in center. Dom wasn’t the superstar that his brother Joe was, but he was a rangy centerfielder with a strong arm. DiMaggio and shortstop Johnny Pesky were on-base machines leaving lots of men on base to be driven in by Williams et al. Pesky, like the Little Professor (DiMaggio) covered a lot of ground at shortstop so the Red Sox had some defensive standouts to go with their pitching and offense.
    The 1912 Red Sox are the only other Sox team that could lay claim to the best Red Sox team ever, and honestly they might have been. The Red Sox from 1912 through 1918 were the Yankees before the Yankees were the Yankees. They took the World Series four times during that stretch. Smoky Joe Wood was only 22 in 1912, but still managed to go 34 and 5 also winning game 8 (game 2 had been declared a tie after 11 innings) of the World Series to give the Red Sox their second World Series victory. The 1912 Sox won one more game than the ’46 Sox and then went on to win one of the most exciting World Series ever, besting the New York Giants and Christy Mathewson. So the 1912 club has an argument, but the two teams are certainly close.
    If the World Series victory is the difference maker then take this into account. While running out a two RBI, game-tying extra base hit in the 8th inning of game seven of the 1946 series, Dom DiMaggio pulled a hamstring and had to be pulled from the game. Leon Culberson came in to play center field in his stead. Culbertson didn’t have Dom’s arm or outfield skills. With two outs and Country Slaughter on first, Harry Walker hit a soft liner between left and center and Slaughter, who was running on the pitch came all the way around to score when the relay throw was late and a bit wide. DiMaggio was clearly the best defensive outfielder on the Boston club and had an excellent arm. It is possible that Slaughter wouldn’t even have tested DiMaggio’s arm. DiMaggio claims that the outcome might have been different because he knew the outfield better implying that he would have gotten to the ball sooner. Here is the YouTube link showing the actual play.
    Who knows what would have happened had Slaughter failed to score from first on the two out hit, but as that was the difference-maker, it sure makes the ’46 Sox and the 1912 Sox look pretty similar. Who would have won a head to head match up? It’s impossible ever to know, but clearly the ’46 Sox were a great team that the 2016 Sox can only hope to come close to matching.

Can the Padres starting rotation rebound from a disappointing 2015 or will A.J. Preller need to find new employment?

The 2016 Padres Starting Pitchers –  The Big 3 have a 4th
By Hugh Rothman
Petco Park, the Padres current shiny home field opened in 2004. The place was a jewel, especially when compared to their previous home park, Qualcomm Stadium, which was previously the only home the organization had ever known. Qualcomm Stadium was a football stadium which graced the Padres with a shoehorned baseball diamond for home games. The sight lines were not designed for baseball and thus were quite substandard. The view was nonexistent which was beneficial, since the only thing to see beyond the stadium was the massive parking lot, which surrounded the stadium on all sides. The place had all the charm of Ted Cruz. Petco Park however, was a revelation! Tall downtown buildings glistened beyond the outfield fences. The old Western Metal Supply building had been left intact and was incorporated into left field, which was just one of the many charming aspects of the new ballpark. Stunning views of the bay and the Coronado Bridge were commonplace throughout the many nooks and crannies of the gorgeous structure.
Petco Park also has another cool feature: It is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in all of baseball history. No other ballpark in baseball history, whether modern or olden times has suppressed offense as much as Petco Park. The park dimensions are not overly huge like in the old Astrodome, nor is the foul ball area massive, like in Oakland Alameda coliseum. There are no wind-tunnel effects keeping the ball in the ballpark, like there are sometimes in Wrigley Field when the wind is blowing in. What makes Petco Park unique is the heavy, salty air that has the effect of turning deep fly balls into long outs. Phil Nevin can attest to this, which he famously did, glaring at then General Manager Kevin Towers when one of Nevin’s many long fly balls hit in his home park landed in the glove of a waiting outfielder rather than over the fence.
So, over the years, since the Padres have moved into their new digs, the team’s hitting has always looked rather anemic, while the pitching has generally appeared solid. Fly ball pitchers especially love pitching at Petco Park since many more of those fly balls stay in the park for outs, rather than over the fence for homers. In general, Padre hitters appear less valuable, while their pitchers appear more valuable than they are in reality.
2014: Looking Good
The 2014 exacerbated this viewpoint more than ever. The hitters had a historically awful season, but the pitching staff contributed championship-level caliber performances. Petco Park depressed offense by 10% overall that season, so this dichotomy was even more pronounced. However, pure numbers are still numbers and the Padre pitchers gave up just 577 runs in 2014. That is an excellent result; it was 2nd in the league and would have been enough to propel the Padres to a championship if their hitting had been just ok. Tyson Ross in particular had an excellent season, pitching 195 innings with an ERA of 2.81, winning 13 games. Andrew Cashner also pitched well when healthy, contributing 123 innings of 2.55 ERA performance. These are ace-worthy pitching efforts, from not just one but two of the team’s starting pitchers. But there was more: Ian Kennedy led the team with 201 innings and the innings were of decent quality, resulting in a 3.63 ERA. Jesse Hahn and Odrisamer Despaigne also chipped in some solid work, keeping their ERAs in the 3.00s. Even Eric Stults, a Jamie Moyer wannabe, wasn’t terrible and was third on the team with 176 innings.
When A.J. Preller came to town, the pitching staff looked pretty decent. Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner were still around, and when Preller managed to land James “Big Game” Shields to the mix, things looked very promising indeed for 2015. Alas, the 2015 pitching staff surrendered 731 runs, a full 154 runs more than the team had surrendered in 2014. This development more than offset the improvement the team made in the offense in 2015, resulting in an even worse record for the team in 2015 than in 2014.
So… what in the hell happened???
2015: Homers, Homers, Homers
Well, one thing to note is that the configuration of Petco Park itself changed in 2015. A new section sponsored by one of San Diego’s ubiquitous microbrew companies was added behind the right field wall which meant that the right field fence was moved in by about 10 feet. The left field wall was also moved in, but not as much as right field had been. These changes made Petco Park not quite as much of a pitcher’s park as it had been. The park reduced offense by about 8% in 2015 rather than the 10% it had in previous seasons.
In conjunction with the park changes, the individual pitchers had very different years than they had in 2014. Take Tyson Ross for example. Actually… just kidding! Tyson Ross’s 2015 was very similar to his 2014. His ERA was slightly higher at 3.26, but the innings pitched was nearly identical, and Ross surrendered only 9 homers in 2015. Ross at this point was clearly the ace of the staff.
How about James “Big Game” Shields? Ah… here is where things start to unravel. Shields, coming off a solid year with Kansas City, picked 2015 to give up a career high 81 walks and a league leading 33 homers. Um, guess what? That’s not a good combination for success. Shields did (and still does) provide amazing durability (he has pitched over 200 innings for 9 straight years) and in 2015 pitched like a super-durable inning eating 3rd starter. Unfortunately, he is getting paid like an ace. One would expect better numbers in Petco Park from Shields even with the changed park configuration, considering he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Nevertheless, Shields does help a team, considering he pitches about 1/7 of a team’s innings every season, and most of the time, those innings aren’t disastrous. But, Shields’ homerific ways didn’t help the team as much as expected.
Next up: Andrew Cashner. Cashner was acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Anthony Rizzo, who has gone on to become a big star. Cashner has certainly had his moments of brilliance, especially in 2014, but he is more high maintenance than your standard hot college girlfriend. There is always some ouchie, or whatever, causing Cashner to spend inordinate amounts of time on the disabled list. His 2014 was great, when he pitched, which was about 3/5 of the season. In 2015, Cashner pitched a career high 184 innings. That’s the good news. The bad news: Those innings weren’t so great. Cashner was way too hittable, giving up 200 hits in those innings, as well as 66 walks. That resulted in a career high hits-given-up rate and walks-given-up rate. Cashner did keep the homers in check, giving up just 19 of them. The result was a rather mediocre 4th starter season when the Padres were hoping for some ace quality work.
Ian Kennedy was also disappointing. The reason for his downfall was easy to figure out: in 2014, Kennedy gave up 16 homers. In 2015, he gave up 31. All of his other numbers were about the same. Alas, those homers really hurt Kennedy’s season. His ERA jumped over half a run.
And finally: Odrisamer Despaigne. This is where disaster really struck. Despaigne went from being a very useful fifth starter to becoming a dumpster fire. To be fair, Despaigne wasn’t expected to pitch as much as he did because china doll Brandon Morrow was expected to be the team’s 5th starter. And Morrow started off great in his first 5 starts. Then, like usual, something in Morrow’s body went sproing and that was that. Morrow never did return in 2015 (how shocking!). So poor Odrisamer Despaigne was thrown into the breach. The result: His homers-given-up rate doubled, his hits-given-up rate increased by 50%, and his ERA paid the price, increasing by over 2 full runs. Despaigne is a junkball pitcher of the first order. In 2014, he was able to fool most of the people, most of the time. In 2015, the jig was up; he was fooling hardly anybody. The Padres had a huge hole at 5th starter all season and were unable to fill it with Despaigne or the likes of Robbie Erlin or Casey Kelly.
So, Tyson Ross held serve, but Kennedy, Cashner, and Despaigne all regressed and Shields had one of his poorest years also. Some of this was due to bad outfield defense (I’m talking about you Matt Kemp). Some of it was due to Petco Park being a bit more hitter friendly. However, most of it was likely due to the random vagaries of pitchers in general. The homers given up is especially alarming. Not even better outfield defense can fix that problem.
So, what about 2016?
2016: Come Back Soon Tyson Ross
Ian Kennedy was let go and Odrisamer Despaigne was kindly asked to depart as well. The Big Three, Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Andrew Cashner are still around. New additions include Colin Rea from the minors and Drew Pomeranz via a trade. Cesar Vargas from the minors is also available to help fill in the gaps. Robbie Erlin was supposed to be that guy, but his injury history didn’t inspire much confidence that he could survive the season, and as expected, Erlin is now unavailable for awhile.
Right away, Erlin, and then Vargas were needed because disaster struck: Tyson Ross, started one game, pitched terribly, and has been on the disabled list ever since. Ross is the ace of the staff, and he has been quite reliable in the past, so this is an unlucky break and very tough for a team to overcome.
James Shields has had a pretty good start. Once again, he is on pace to top 200 innings and he has reduced the number of homers given up. Shields is looking like a solid #2 starter right now. The big surprise is who the functional ace has been so far: Drew Pomeranz! Pomeranz was a first round pick many years ago and has bounced around a bit, previously pitching for Colorado and Oakland. Yet, he is only 27 years old and of course, pitching in Coors Field as a rookie is a nearly impossible assignment for any pitcher. Pomeranz is probably breathing much easier seeing the environs of Petco Park around him, and realizing, hey, this is *not* Coors Field, woo hoo! It would not be a surprise if the improvement from Pomeranz is real. This was a great pick up by Preller, possibly the best move he’s made since he was hired. The one concern is that right now, Pomeranz actually leads the league in fewest hits given up (per nine innings). There is probably some luck involved with Pomeranz’s miniscule hit rate, but even with some correction, Pomeranz will likely contribute solid work for the Padres this season.
Andrew Cashner once again has spent some time on the disabled list this season, and once again, his numbers have been disappointing. The talent is clearly there, but the consistency and command just aren’t. His ridiculous beard isn’t helping things either. Cashner appears to be doing about what he did last year, but less of it because of his typical lack of durability. The Padres won’t win more games because of Cashner this season, but at least it appears that he won’t be losing them anymore than he did last year either.
Colin Rea was one of the Padres top 10 prospects last season and he has now graduated to the big club. He is about as meh as can be. He doesn’t have great stuff or superior command. He is durable however, and he isn’t terrible, which definitely has value. The Padres have had trouble with pitcher durability so Rea will be welcome in that department. There is also a chance for further growth as Rea learns his craft and gets major league pitching instruction, but at least for 2016, Rea is not going to lead the team to the promised land all by himself.
Cesar Vargas is nominally the 5th starter right now, but it won’t last. Vargas gets by on moxie and a bulldog mentality and you gotta love rooting for guys like this. But, eventually the league will figure him out and it will be painful to watch. It already is a bit painful, as Vargas has an ERA over 5.00. Unfortunately, this starting stint is likely to be the high point of Vargas’s major league career, that is, until he eventually settles in as low-leverage long reliever. Instead, the 5th starter to watch on this team is Christian Friedrich, who like his fellow teammate Pomeranz is a byproduct of the Colorado Rockies organization. Friedrich, like Pomeranz, was a highly regarded prospect who shot through the minor league system only to get pummeled in Coors Field. Like many a Rockie pitching prospect, the experience set him back for awhile. Eventually, the Rockies moved on and the Padres smartly snagged him. So far, the results in triple-A and now in the majors have been promising. In his short time with the Padres in the majors so far, he has yet to surrender a homer, but his control has been somewhat wobbly.
There is no one else of note in the high minors for the Padres, so this is what they must go forward with for 2016. It will really help if Tyson Ross can come back sooner rather than later from his injury (he’s expected back in early July). If he does, Ross, with Pomeranz and an improved Shields, could lead the Padres to solid pitching numbers this season. Without Ross, it will be difficult for the Padres to make any noise whatsoever this year. A.J. Preller is probably praying every day for Tyson Ross’ swift recovery because Ross’ return to the rotation sooner rather than later might determine whether Preller even has the GM job for 2017.

The Giants have a deep pen, but who should close?

Game Over, Man!
by Jim Silva

    If you don’t have guys who can throw 97 to 100 MPH then you don’t have a shut-down bullpen. While that’s not really true, it sure seems like an apt description of the belief system of most general managers in baseball these days. Look at the Dodgers (aborted) attempt to trade for Aroldis Chapman (average fastball velocity 99.5 MPH) and then the Yankees consummated trade for the hard-throwing closer even though he was likely to start the season on suspension. And it wasn’t just Chapman that teams gave up a lot of resources to acquire. The A’s spent lots of money on Ryan Madsen (average fastball velocity 94.2 MPH), the Astros gave up prospects to get Ken Giles (average fastball velocity 96.5 MPH), and the Rockies sent a young starting outfielder to the Rays to acquire Jake McGee (average fastball velocity 94.5 MPH) just to name a few of the off-season moves that happened since the last World Series.
    Hunter Strickland is the Giants requisite bullpen flame thrower humping it up there with an average fastball of 96.9. But Strickland isn’t the closer – yet. Last season, Strickland’s first full season in the majors, saw him mostly used as the setup man and the 7th inning guy (45 of his 55 appearances). The 6’4” righty from Zebulon, Georgia struck out opposing hitters in bunches, showed excellent control (1.8 walks per nine), forced batters to beat the baseball into the ground at a 69% rate, and limited home runs to the tune of 0.7 per nine innings pitched. It was hard to get on base at all against Strickland as he managed a WHIP of 0.78 last season. He is the scariest pitcher the Giants have in relief and is very likely to close games for them someday. Only manager Bruce Bochy knows when that day will come as he is the one who decided that Santiago Casilla will start the season as he ended last season – wearing the closer mantle.
    Casilla’s game changed dramatically last season, or so say his peripherals. Castilla has been closing games somewhat regularly since 2012 when he was 31. That’s pretty old to finally be anointed the closer, but it took him a long time to develop. He mostly sported ERAs in the 4’s and 5’s during his last three seasons with the A’s. He put it all together his first year with the Giants (2010) and has kept his ERA in the 1’s and 2’s since then. While that sounds consistent, Casilla is the scary variety of closer who is all over the place with his control and his home run rate. In 2014, Casilla’s strikeout rate was 6.9 per nine, but his career low walk rate of 2.3 per nine gave him a career best strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.0. He also posted an ERA of 1.70 and a FIP of 3.18 while allowing a career low 5.4 hits per nine and an excellent home run rate of 0.5 per nine. He wasn’t the full-time closer but managed to save 19 games with four blown save chances. He threw in ten holds for good measure, clearly proving his value in high-leverage situations.
    Last season Casilla finished 55 games, appeared in 67, and recorded 38 saves while blowing six saves. His strikeout rate jumped from 6.9 in 2014 to 9.6 in 2015, an unusual jump without small sample size to explain it. The strikeouts are the good news. Unfortunately, and here is one explanation for the blown saves, his walk rate jumped from 2.3 per nine to 3.6 per nine while his home run rate also increased from 0.5 per nine to 0.9 per nine innings pitched. Walking more batters and then giving up almost twice as many long balls is a recipe for an increase in ERA and Casilla’s jumped from 1.70 to 2.79. While ERA is not the best measure for relievers, his FIP (his ERA based on events he controlled) also jumped – from 3.18 to 3.63. At 35 Casilla still throws hard and mixes in a curve and slider 23% and 15% of the time respectively last year, so it’s not like he was lobbing grapefruits up there or surviving on guile. Still, with Strickland behind him he can’t get off to a bad start and assume that the job will still be his. There was even noise that he might lose his closer’s role in spring training but even with a good spring by Strickland that didn’t happen.
    Those lucky Giants – the closer race isn’t a two horse contest. Sergio Romo had a head lock on the closer role for 2013 and parts of the two seasons on either side of that, but lost it to Casilla when he slumped in 2014. Last year Romo put up a monster season in the pen posting his second highest strikeout to walk rate at 7.10 which is quite excellent. He also dropped his home run rate down to 0.5 jacks per nine, showing his normal great control only walking 1.6 batters over nine, and putting up his best strikeout numbers in the last four seasons by fanning 11.1 batters per nine. Romo is 33 and pint-sized for a pitcher at 5’11” and is a soft-tosser averaging 87.5 MPH on his heater last year. He throws his slider 59% of the time and it is a true swing-and-miss pitch.
    As everyone knows by now, the Giants have the whole “Win the Series in even years” thing going on, and George Kontos has a “get lit up by home runs in odd years” thing, and alternately a “keeps the ball in the park in even years” thing – weird I know. Last season, being an odd year, Kontos allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings. Based on his other numbers it seems like there was a method to his madness so predicting the same thing this year might not be crazy. Kontos’ peripherals make it look like he consciously pitched to contact more. His career walk rate is 2.4 after a season where he walked a career low 1.5 batters per nine – his first time under 2.5 per nine. Along with that he fanned a career low 5.4 batters per nine, down from a career rate of 7.2 per nine. Interestingly his hit rate was 7.0, under his career number of 7.6 so whatever he changed seemed to work. Kontos throws hard enough (average fastball sitting at 91.2 MPH last season), but he throws it about as often as his cutter and a bit more than his slider, which he throws about a quarter of the time. Kontos had 28 multiple inning outings in his 73 appearances so he is the workhorse of the pen. He is probably the only one of the four pen mainstays who isn’t in the mix for the closer’s job this season, but he still provides a lot of value in relief.
    The other arms in the pen to start the season were Chris Heston and Javier Lopez. Heston, at 27 –  the only member of the pen under 30 – spent last season holding down a rotation spot and doing it admirably, including one memorable game for the whole Heston family – an 11 strikeout, no walk, no-hitter where he drilled three batters. Heston doesn’t throw particularly hard but is still “effectively wild” at times as evidenced by his three hit batters in that no-no. Heston is likely to end up in the rotation at some point this season because the back of the rotation is injury-prone, and if he can reprise his first half of 2014 then the Giants won’t miss a beat. It’s hard to say what Heston will give the Giants as a reliever because he has almost never – even in the minors – pitched out of the pen.
    Lopez is the requisite LOOGY – he is in the pen to get out the lefties. Lopez faced lefties twice as often as he faced righties. That is as it should be because Lopez allowed a .177 on-base percentage and .130 slugging to lefties he faced while righties went strong against him posting an OPS of .734. Interestingly he spins his weird lefty voodoo mostly with his gentle fastball clocked at an average velocity of 84.5 MPH which he throws 74 % of the time and mixes with the occasional cutter (19% of the time) – not the typical menu for short relievers. At 38 years old, Lopez is still great at what he does with the caveat that his exposure to righties be strictly limited.
    When you look at teams like the Royals who survived because their pen was so great in the 7th, 8th, and 9th, and you look at the Giants who have quietly done almost exactly the same things but with a much better (at least this season) starting rotation, you have to have a hard time betting against them in the NL West.