Trading From Strength to Improve a Strength in Chavez Ravine

An embarrassment of wealth is nothing to be embarrassed about when you are a major league club. In the case of the LA Dodgers, they have an embarrassing amount of money and an embarrassing number of major league or major league ready outfielders. Obviously the Dodgers are a supremely talented organization with lots of resources, a deep minor league system, and very deep pockets – they have reached the World Series two years in a row now. Their pitching staff led the league in xFIP- which is a park adjusted, league adjusted, defense independent version of ERA where 100 is average and lower is better. The Dodgers pitching staff had an xFIP- of 86, so they were 14% better than league average. Their hitters led the majors in wRC+ (111 that’s 11 percent better than league average) which is a league and park adjusted measure of their ability to put runs on the board. And that’s without their star shortstop, Corey Seager. So it would be an easy argument to make that the Dodgers had the best pitching and the best offense in the National League and possibly in all of baseball. When you are already the best or one of the best teams in baseball how do you get better?

One way to improve upon greatness is to look at the margins; look at the areas where you might be inefficient so you can tighten some of the screws and get rid of a little of the shimmy to get the most out of that big engine. In baseball some of that inefficiency is beneficial because depth protects a team from injuries and slumps. However, if prospects are repeatedly blocked for long enough then the system becomes inefficient and something needs to be done either through a trade, by someone moving positions, or by allowing players to leave via free agency. The Dodgers are in the enviable position of having too many good outfielders. It is an interesting predicament to have too many outfielders at a time when a much-anticipated free agent hits the market and he happens to be an outfielder – yes, Bryce Harper. The Dodgers have met with Harper and even brought Magic Johnson to the meeting showing that they are really serious. But Harper would add to the logjam in the outfield unless LA decided it was time to push some of their outfield logs downstream. So let’s look at this in two ways. The Dodgers need to consolidate some of their outfield talent and they might also benefit from signing a superstar like Bryce Harper.

In spring training before the 2018 season, the Dodgers made a financial move to help avoid luxury tax by trading Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Charlie Culberson, Brandon McCarthy, and some cash for Matt Kemp. Most people paying attention to transactions assumed Kemp would be waived before the season started considering how much outfield depth the Dodgers already possessed, and how done Kemp had looked in 2017. I’m not sure if it surprised the Dodgers to see Kemp in great shape in spring training and to see him displaying skills many thought he’d lost, but Kemp ended up making the All Star team and getting 506 plate appearances playing mostly left and some right field. Kemp then entered into a pretty hefty regression as illustrated in this Dan Syzmborski article from Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-redisappearance-of-matt-kemp/

He seemed to right the ship for the last 20 games of the season, but with one year left on his contract and at age 34, Kemp should be a DH somewhere because of his defensive numbers which might be generously described as suboptimal.

Aside from Kemp, who would be hard to move, unless the Dodgers managed another contract swap move with an AL team who could use him as a DH or bench bat, LA has another seven outfielders who would start in the outfield for other teams. Starting with Andrew Toles who is coming off injuries – Toles put together a nice season at triple-A but the crowded outfield in LA meant that he only saw action in 17 games and logged 30 at-bats – not even enough to bother looking at his numbers there. Toles deserves a chance to see what he can do in an extended tryout as a regular. The speedy outfielder has a .792 OPS in about half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the majors and defensive metrics show that he can play all three outfield spots and save the team runs. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2021 and can’t be a free agent until 2024 at which time your kids will be starting college or enlisting in the marines – pretty far off, eh? He seems like a great fit for a small market team and might bring back a moderate prospect in a trade.

Enrique (Kike) Hernandez has become a fan favorite in LA and the only position he hasn’t played in the majors is catcher. Yep, he threw a third of an inning last year. He has over 1700 innings of work with 16 career DRS and a small sampling at each infield spot showing that he can at least not stink up the joint while sporting various infielder’s gloves – that includes some excellent work at shortstop. Add to that Hernandez’ 118 wRC+ in his most plate appearances ever (462) and Kike looks like the team’s resident Zobrist. A lot of his increased offensive value came from a huge power spike to 21 home runs, so in order for Hernandez to hold all of his newfound value he has to hold on to the increased power. Regardless, he has value as a player who can increase your depth bench by being a gloveman everywhere and a right-handed bat with speed a pop. His contract situation is still favorable as he is arbitration eligible but can’t test free agency until 2021. Could he start elsewhere? Probably, but keeping him as a reserve allows the Dodgers to keep more relievers with a multitool available who replaces multiple position players on the bench.

Chris Taylor is a similar player to Kike Hernandez in that he can play the outfield and infield and can hit. He does his best work in the outfield and at third base but can be used to cover shortstop and second base also. He put up a wRC+ of 113 which looked like a disappointment after his revelatory 2017 (126 wRC+), but like Hernandez he can hit home runs, is speedy on the basepaths, and can play everywhere. Also a righty, he can’t be a free agent until 2022 but is a year older than Kike – so who to trade? They seem redundant, right? All teams are looking for players like Hernandez and Taylor so it should be easy to move one of them for something of value. Keeping both of them allows the Dodgers supreme flexibility but again, we are talking about consolidating resources. Ship one of them if you can get back something you need or want.

Cody Bellinger isn’t going anywhere. At 23, the youngster has already amassed 7.6 WAR (Fangraphs style) and put up seasons of 138 and 120 wRC+. Bellinger is fast and athletic so while he can play first base well (4 DRS in two seasons), his raw ability points toward moving him to the outfield if he can swing it. So far he looks exciting out there at times – https://www.mlb.com/cut4/cody-bellinger-slides-along-the-grass-after-big-game-4-catch/c-297998112

and a look at his numbers in limited work look promising, if mixed. His outfield UZR numbers aren’t consistently strong in opposition to his DRS. He has 11 DRS spread across the three spots in two seasons and just short of 900 innings played across all three spots.  It seems clear that he is or could be at least an average if not an excellent outfielder and why rush him to the weak end of the defensive spectrum (first base) if he can handle a tougher position when he is so young? Bellinger is a star with the potential to be a superstar and he can’t leave the Dodgers of his own volition until 2024.

Yasiel Puig is one of the more divisive players in the majors from his bat licking and mugging that some people (surprisingly?) don’t like, to his canon-like arm in right, his tremendous power and his thrilling, if sometimes overly aggressive, base running. His Puigness has been mentioned as trade fodder possibly more than anyone else in baseball but this off-season might be the year he actually moves somewhere. After six seasons in the majors, it is hard to remember that he is only 27. At 22 and 23 he had seasons of 4 WAR and 5.5 WAR and it looked like he was on his way to becoming a superstar, but then consecutive seasons of 2.5 total WAR put his value in question. 2017 was a bounce back year for him as he posted 2.9 WAR but then 2018 saw him platooned most of the season and he ended up with 444 plate appearances and 1.8 WAR. His defensive numbers seem to bounce around from season to season, but he is regarded as a talented, if sometimes inconsistent, defender. His wRC+ shows his offensive value better than his WAR – 117 and 123 in his last two seasons shows where he is right now. If he gets platooned again then you can count on around 120 wRC+, but if he plays full time it would be hard to project what he will do. He isn’t a complete disaster against lefties, (career .250/.340/.417 slash line) but he does give away about 80 points of slugging, 40 points of batting average, and 15 points of on-base percentage. He could play every day and be fine. The Dodgers have the luxury, but not the necessity, of platooning him. If they played him every day he might even learn to hit lefties better. He makes good money due to arbitration and will be a free agent in 2020 so this might be the best time to trade him. Many teams would take on his temperament – seemingly less of an issue as he matures – to get his talent on the field.

Joc Pederson looked like he would be the next great Dodger outfielder when he made the All Star team at age 23, but his low average, high intensity, swing and miss game has limited his plate appearances since then. 2015 was the only season where he was given 500 plate appearances (585). In 2017 it was looking like Joc might play his way out of LA or at best become a bench player, until he went off in the post-season belting three homers against Houston in the Series and putting up an OPS of 1.334. Peterson played regularly in 2018 taking the big end of a platoon, slugged .522, put up 126 wRC+, and contributed 2.7 WAR. And he is 26. Is there more in Joc’s game still to come? He did cut down dramatically on his strikeouts getting punched out 19.2% of the time – more than 5 points below his career average of 24.9%. He has speed, can play all three spots in the outfield although his numbers look best in left. His power was still there even with the diminished fan rate so what could he do with another 550 plate appearances somewhere? Unlike Puig, Joc has appeared to be helpless against lefties so unless he does something to disprove his slash line in 325 career PA’s against lefties (.181/.266/.317) he will continue to be a platoon outfielder and because of that have somewhat limited trade value. He is still in the arbitration years of his contracts and he won’t be eligible for free agency until 2021.

Speaking of blocked players, Alex Verdugo has been ready for an extended shot at a starting job in the majors since his 2017 triple-A season. In 2018, he repeated the level and improved, showing a bit more power while maintaining his high average ways. Verdugo is only 22 which means he mastered triple-A just as he was allowed to order a beer at The Flea in OKC. Sitting on the bench in LA probably isn’t doing his development a lot of good so the Dodgers need to work him into the outfield rotation, send him back to triple-A again to show off, or trade him. Verdugo has a lot of trade value as the Dodgers top offensive prospect (#25 on the 2018 Baseball America prospect list) who could move right into a starting outfield spot and be under team control for 6 or so years.

There is one more player to consider, and he is sitting at triple-A waiting for a chance to play in LA. Edwin Rios is 24, so not quite as precocious as some of the other Dodgers hitters. Rios just finished his first full year in OKC after looking good in a partial season there in 2017. He has played almost everywhere – mostly third and first, but also a decent amount of left field the last two seasons. He has tremendous power unlike Verdugo, hits for average although not quite as much as Verdugo, and strikes out more than Verdugo. So depending on your flavor of hitter and what position you need to fill, Rios, who is not particularly slick with the glove, is still a nice piece to have in spite of his defensive limitations. The Dodgers could try him at first with Bellinger in the outfield. They could also trade him as he has value as a power hitter with many years of team control. He would be a perfect fit on an AL team.

Phew! That’s a lot of options! The Dodgers should keep either Taylor or Hernandez, keep Bellinger obviously, then decide if Puig is their guy moving forward or go all-in on Harper and offset the spending by installing Verdugo in center with Joc spelling everyone. Free Andrew Toles! That’s still five outfielders – six if they try Rios at first – but one of them would double as the utility infielder. That would open up their bench, get them some nice returns in trades, bring in some star power if they sign Harper, and still leave them with enough versatility to handle an injury or a slump by one of the starters. Man it must be good to be a Dodger fan!

 

Author: elfuego25

When I'm not writing about baseball (or shoving kettle corn into my mouth at the ballpark), I am probably walking Daisy, who is a very good dog, researching my Portuguese-Irish roots, or wondering when my lovely wife will return from her latest fabulous trip. Yes, life is good!

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