Shades Required In San Diego

“Prospects are cool, parades are cooler”, was purportedly coined by MLB’s Casey Stern, and the phrase applies to the Padres perhaps more than any team in baseball. For years now the Padres have been full of potential, but have also been unable to turn that into a playoff appearance since 2005 and 2006 when the NL West was just bad. They won the division with 82 and 88 wins respectively and lost in the LDS both times winning 1 out of 7 games in total. The last time they won 90+ games was in 1998 when they were swept in the World Series by the Yankees. They have a great newish stadium, and a beautiful city, but they also have way more 90 loss seasons than 90 win seasons. What they have right now is a stacked minor league system that has some superstar potential and great depth, so when can we expect the Friars to be relevant again and should they try to accelerate the timeline now?

Right before Christmas of 2014 the new Padres GM, A.J. Preller, signaled clearly that he believed that the Padres should go for it when he traded away Trea Turner, Joe Ross, Jake Bauers, Rene Rivera, and Burch Smith in a 3 team trade that netted them Gerardo Reyes, Ryan Hanigan, Jose Castillo, and Wil Myers – the headliner for the Padres in the trade. It was a bold move and they gave up a lot to get Myers who hasn’t been the star the Padres thought they were getting. For certain the Padres would give up a lot to get Trea Turner back – he was the player to be named later who was shipped to Washington. Turner is already a star in 2018 and had a 4.8 WAR season at age 25, so he is still getting better. Joe Ross also paid dividends quickly for the Nationals, succeeding in the majors at 22 and 23 but struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness each of the last two campaigns. Jake Bauers, also included in the trade, is the kind of guy the Padres normally would be acquiring instead of trading and the Indians just picked him up. He’s put up good walk numbers with some power and speed and not too many strikeouts in the minors. His first taste of the majors in 2018 didn’t go the way anyone wanted, but he is only 23. The trade looks bad for the Padres at this point partly because Turner has quickly turned into a star, while Myers has been disappointing. Myers has been hurt a lot, has been rough on defense and has only produced at just a tick above major league average with the bat. At this point Jose Castillo looks like he might be the real return for the Padres in the trade after his major league debut in 2018 where he put up ridiculous numbers out of San Diego’s pen over 38.33 innings. He is 6’4 with a fastball in the mid-90s and control (12.2 K’s per 9 to 2.8 walks per 9) and he is only 23 – those are closer numbers. Trades can only be fully graded in hindsight, but at this point it looks like Preller really screwed the pooch in this deal.

In addition to the Myers trade, Preller also traded away their young catcher, Yasmani Grandal (11.3 WAR since being traded) for Matt Kemp and his huge contract (8 years and $160 million) that was signed in 2012. That contract has since prompted two salary dump trades. Kemp was about a 106 wRC+ (good for about 1.9 WAR over that time) guy with horrendous outfield defense for the Padres in just short of two years before they traded him to Atlanta, along with a bunch of money, for Hector Olivera. Justin Upton was also acquired via trade that off-season. The Padres sent 4 prospects (Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, and Dustin Peterson) and an International signing slot to the Braves to get the slugging outfielder. Smith broke out last season putting up 3.4 WAR. Fried, who is 25, still hasn’t found control of his excellent stuff but managed an xFIP of 3.24 for the Braves last season and struck out almost 12 batters per 9. Jace Peterson didn’t work out, while Dustin Peterson is at triple-A and still might turn into something. Justin Upton was worth about 3.5 WAR for the Padres and left the next season as a free agent, so in terms of WAR they’ve already lost that trade. Preller also traded for Craig Kimbrel, kept him for a year, and then traded him to the Red Sox for a bunch of prospects, so that one is tough to score. In terms of prospects, they gave up Matt Wisler and a draft pick which the Braves used to take their current number one prospect, a 21 year old third baseman named Austin Riley who has already spent most of a season at triple-A. The subsequent Kimbrel trade did bring them back Manuel Margot, so scoring that sequence of transactions will have to wait. They also signed James Shields, who had one mediocre year and one horrible year, but it worked out in the end because the Padres traded him to the ChiSox for two prospects including Fernando Tatis Jr..

The Padres did a pretty clean strip of their minor league system and spent a lot of money – and it didn’t work. San Diego went 74 and 88 and Preller has since worked hard to undo what he had done to the Padres system, which did work. To his credit, San Diego now has one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball. Now the question is, will Preller hit repeat and try to turn his youngsters into major league talent, or be patient and wait for all that talent to reach the majors? The best way to look at the current Padres roster is to use that thingy that sees the future. Then you don’t have to fret about them losing 90 games this season because the future-seeing-thingy showed you that good times are on the way. Their future is coming. Since MLB 2019 is still in the future let’s start there.

We won’t waste too much time discussing players who aren’t going to be around to contribute to winning Padres’ teams. Let’s start at one of the positions where the Padres have their future in the lineup right now – catcher. Before last year the Padres looked like they were going to have a black hole behind the plate because starter Austin Hedges, who is an excellent defender, hadn’t figured out how to hit even a little bit. His 2017 was an improvement over 2016 and he only put up 69 wRC+. In 2018 Hedges figured something out and managed a wRC+ of 90 which makes him an average hitting catcher. His walk rate and his strikeout rate both moved in the right direction in 2018 and he is still only 26. His power is there with 32 home runs in his last 690 at bats, but his average is awful in part due to his high strikeout rate and subpar walk rate. He managed to hit .231 last season which was a big improvement considering his career batting average is .210 through his first 921 plate appearances. You may have heard this song before, but Hedges swings at too many pitches out of the strike zone and misses a lot when he swings. The good news is that the young catcher is an excellent defender. He has saved 32 runs (DRS) over the last two seasons and that includes  2018 where his throwing numbers, which are usually excellent, were down – the first time Hedges has been below league average. And he isn’t the only young catcher of note in the system.

Last season’s deal with the Indians that sent Brad Hand to Cleveland netted the Padres Francisco Mejia. Mejia is 23 and only has 69 at-bats in the majors but his minor league career shows him to be a high average hitter with developing power. Mejia doesn’t walk much but he also doesn’t strike out that much, so his offense is predicated on his ability to make hard contact. Can he catch? Well, he is no Austin Hedges, but he has mostly caught throughout his minor league career. He has also played some outfield and a bit of third. His defensive numbers behind the plate in the minors are solid – nothing stands out to say that he can’t catch, so his playing time at other spots is likely more about the Indians trying to make him versatile enough to get his bat in the lineup more often. The Padres only played him at catcher so take that as a statement of intent. Mejia is ready to get a real shot at the majors. Barring a trade it will be Hedges and Mejia back there in some kind of job share. Mejia switch hits and kills righties so he might get the lion’s share of a platoon as Hedges is strictly a righty.

Eric Hosmer is the first baseman until 2025 unless the Padres believe they made a mistake  and do something to move his contract. Last year, almost nothing went right for Hosmer when he had a bat in his hand. His OBP was down, his power diminished, his average dropped and he struck out more than he had in any season in the majors. If you think it was all park factor then you should take a look at his wRC+ numbers for the last four seasons. 2018’s 95 wRC+ was his lowest since 2012 (when he was 23) and the first time under 100 since 2014. The Padres probably thought they’d signed the 4.1 WAR Eric Hosmer of 2017, but what they got in the first year of the 8 years/$144 million was the -0.1 Eric Hosmer – ouch indeed! There are some positives to Hosmer like the fact that he plays pretty much every day and that he is reported to be a team leader, but there is no way to swallow that contract if he isn’t putting up at least 120 wRC+ every year at first base. Looking for an indicator that he might bounce back doesn’t show too much hope either. His BABIP was down a bit, but not by that much. His ground ball rate was up, so unless someone convinces him that his career depends on his swing path changing and then he can actually make the adjustment, then Hosmer is likely to hit into a ton of ground outs again. His hard contact rate was up a wee bit, but the rest of his batted ball profile regressed. He also pulled the ball at a rate of about 31% (like in 2017) and hit the ball to center a lot. That may have worked in KC, but in Petco it didn’t, at least for him.

He may rebound to be the guy who was worth 3.1, 3.5, and 4.1 WAR in the last three odd years respectively, or permanently turn into the even year Hosmer (-0.2, 0.2, and -0.1 WAR respectively in his last three even years). As you can see, he is extremely inconsistent so it is hard to predict what he will do from season to season, but there isn’t really anything that indicates a rebound coming. In today’s market, almost nobody is getting 8 year deals – especially not first basemen. The contract was a huge mistake even if Hosmer does rebound. Hoss is 29 and will be 36 when the contract is over. It remains to be seen if Preller can dig himself out from under this one, but in the meantime, the Padres have to hope that Hosmer can get back to at least a 3 WAR level.

The middle infield of the future is almost here for the Padres and if you are a fan then you are probably already excited. Luis Urias got his cup of coffee in the bigs last year and he won’t turn 22 until June. Urias is an on-base machine with decent extra base power. His career slash line in the minors (.306/.397/.405) is indicative of what the Padres are getting, although there is likely to be some adjustment. His number of triples at each level indicate speed, but his base stealing efficiency (35 of 73 in his career) shows that he has some aspects of the game still to master. Developed as a shortstop, Urias has seen more time at second of late and looks to be an excellent defensive second baseman unless the Padres need him to play shortstop where he would most likely be average. Based on his triple-A numbers he is ready, so the Padres should have their second baseman of the future in the lineup from the start of the season. He will eventually move toward the top of the lineup based on his contact skills and plate discipline (244 k’s to 220 walks in 1756 minor league at bats). He has star potential – something the Padres sorely need but haven’t seen in a while from one of their hitting prospects.

Urias’ double play partner of the future is a bit behind him in terms of experience, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is already showing crazy ability even though he won’t turn 21 until next post-season and has already shown that he can handle double-A. Tatis was ranked #2 in almost every prospect list last year and probably enters 2019 in the same spot. He is a big, athletic shortstop who might grow himself out of the position someday. He hits for power (42 home runs over his first 1059 at bats), steals bases (63 of 86), and gets on base (123 walks in that same span). The Padres should probably at least start him at triple-A next year, but it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that they will hand him the starting job if he has a great spring, service time be damned. A middle infield of Urias and Tatis is the most exciting pairing the Padres have seen since Roberto’s and rolled tacos with guacamole, but they should be patient – these guys are so young.

Christian Villanueva was a decent third baseman for a team not expected to contend – a bit below starter level at 1.2 WAR with a wRC+ of 104. I’m not sure what it says about the Padres intentions that they sold him to the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, other than the fact that he won’t be their third baseman in 2019. Until a few days ago, it looked like the Padres would run Wil Myers out there to play third base. 2018 was the first time Myers had started more than 15 games at third in his professional career; he started there 36 times last season. It wasn’t pretty by the numbers with -24.7 UZR/150, but the fact is they just don’t have anyone else to play the position at this point. Since the Padres announced that Myers would move back to the outfield, it seems that they are planning on trading for a third baseman or signing a free agent. They might change their minds again (if they can’t make a move to improve their lot at third) and move Myers back to the hot corner at some point. Myers numbers in left field are actually decent so it would be smart to move him back there, although it will present them with a logjam in left. As noted above, Myers needs to be better than just average with the bat if the Padres are going to get any value from his contract, not to mention competing in the West. There isn’t an exciting prospect near ready at third base so their future is likely to involve a trade or a free agent signing of a third baseman. They might eventually shift one of their young shortstops to third if they don’t find a better solution. Even squinting, it is hard to see Myers as the solution and the Padres apparently agree. That said, they need to have somebody play third!

The outfield is interesting at least. The Padres have some decisions to make especially if they move Myers to left. Their center fielder is 24 year old Manuel Margot who hasn’t put it all together yet. He is already a very good center fielder and his glove and speed will get him a lot of chances to figure it out. To put it simply, his main problem at this point is that he makes way too many outs. With two full seasons under his belt with wRC+ numbers of 90 and 81 in 2017 and 2018 respectively, it will be hard to carry his bat in their lineup unless he can produce at least league average numbers soon. Margot’s inability to get on base via the walk means he has to hit for a high batting average to not be a drain on the offense. 2017 looked like a step in the right direction as he got his OBP up to .313, but he regressed to an unacceptable .281 last year. Margot doesn’t strike out a lot (career rate of 18.5%), and he is only 24, so there is still time to take the next step.

Franmil Reyes is built like a defensive end at 6’5 and 275 pounds and he hits like one too (in the good way). His wRC+ of 129 was the best by far on the Padres last season and had he started from the beginning of the season with San Diego, he might have earned more attention in the Rookie of The Year voting. Reyes looked like a middle of the order beast with huge power in 2018. His batting average may have been inflated by a high BABIP so there could be some regression in that area; he is probably more likely to be a .260 hitter than a .280 hitter. The power is absolutely real. His defense wasn’t good last season and based on his minor league numbers he will probably be a below average right fielder with below average range (otherwise known as a left fielder), solid fielding percentage, and good assist numbers. The Padres will take it if he can continue to post 120+ wRC+ numbers. Heading forward he is likely to be the cleanup or 5 hole hitter and will eventually move to left or first base.

Hunter Renfroe had his second season in a row with 26 home runs, but his first season in the majors with above replacement level offensive production. Two things happened that helped Renfroe get to those better numbers. First, Renfroe’s walk rate increased by 1.2% in tandem with a decreased swing rate at pitches outside of the strike zone (41.1 % in 2016, 35.5% in 2017, and 32.7% in 2018). The outfielder also saw his strikeout rate drop 4.5% from his 2017 number – down to 24.7%. Renfroe’s improved plate discipline had a lot to do with his 28 point increase in batting average, even though his BABIP actually decreased a tiny bit. If he continues to make even modest gains in his plate discipline while holding onto his big time power then he could turn into a legitimate middle of the order hitter occupying the 5 or 6 hole on a good team. He is 26, so it is unclear how much more growth there is moving forward, but until he stops improving it is hard to put a number on him in ink. One more number that portends good things for Hunter Renfroe – his hard hit ball rate exploded from 34.6% to 47.2% in one season. His improvements, and a good BABIP year might make him look like a star in the near future as he is already a valuable offensive player and at least a solid left fielder. That is fine except with Myers in left they might bump into each other a lot! Seriously, one of their trades needs to be sending one of their left fielders somewhere, preferably for a third baseman.

23 year old Franchy Cordero has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the majors and he has shown that he hits the ball very hard (48.2% hard hit rate last season), misses on too many pitches (65% contact rate where 77 percent is league average), and he has serious physical tools. What we don’t know is whether or not he can play defense in the outfield as his stats from 2017 and 2018 are polar opposites (2017 looked good and 2018 looked horrific), but that could definitely be due to small sample size. His speed implies that he should be better in right than anyone else the Padres have assuming Margot is in center, but Renfroe, Myers, and Reyes also need a spot in the field. If not for Hosmer, one of them could move to first base. So the Padres have a lot of sorting to do and the market is flush with left fielder types. Of the left fielder types on their roster, Renfroe and Reyes probably have the most trade value especially if the deal is with an AL team where they could DH and play left sometimes. Margot and Cordero need a chance to prove that they can be more complete players if the Padres are to have a chance of having a decent outfield defense.

Petco Park, where the Padres play their home games, is a pitchers park. It was a pretty extreme pitchers park through 2017, and looking at the three year park factors it is obviously a difficult place for hitters and a good place for pitchers. The Padres have been able to develop relief pitchers, often turning them into prospects via trades – most recently Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. What they haven’t had recently is a stud in the starting rotation or much depth there for that matter, but that is soon to change. Right now the Padres have three starting pitchers who could conceivably be in the rotation in some role – probably the back end of the rotation – when the team becomes competitive again, but boy are they deep in the minors!

Starting with what they already have in their big league rotation, Joey Lucchesi has had the most success. In his major league debut season of 2018, he put together a FIP- of  107. FIP- is a park and league adjusted version of Fielding Independent Pitching where 100 is league average and lower is better. So he wasn’t great at preventing runs, but he wasn’t horrible. His peripherals are what makes his debut season interesting. Lucchesi struck out 10.04 batters per 9 innings and only walked 2.98 batters per 9 for a K/Walk ratio of 3.37. The peripheral stat that likely drove up that FIP- number was his home runs per 9 which was 1.59. That’s pretty horrific unless you are sitting in the seats past the left field fence hoping for souvenirs, in which case you are thrilled by that number. Looking at Lucchesi’s minor league numbers, the long ball wasn’t particularly a problem so it is reasonable to expect better numbers there going forward. Lucchesi doesn’t throw particularly hard, only spent one start in triple-A, but has had success at every level (except for that one very short, very ugly triple-A start). He is probably a 3 or a 4 moving forward.

Robbie Erlin is another soft tosser (by today’s standards), but he has immaculate control as evidenced by his walk rate of 0.99 walks per 9 innings last season. That’s extremely low even for Erlin, but he was recovering from Tommy John surgery (the operation was in May of 2016) so it is hard to say exactly what he is now – maybe that very low walk rate is real as he is finally healthy. He also struck out 7.27 batter per 9 which gave him a K/Walk rate of 7.33 in 2018. That is going to be hard to sustain, but Erlin fashioned a FIP- of 82 in part because he didn’t give free passes to first base or allow the ball to leave the park overly much (0.99 home runs per 9). The 28 year old contributed a career high 109 innings last season, which was almost 50 more than his previous career high, and he made 12 starts. It will be interesting to see if the Padres let him loose to pitch 32 starts or so. If he can hold up, the Padres probably have another 3 or a 4 in Erlin.

Eric Lauer, like Joey Lucchesi, allowed too many baseballs to leave the park (1.2 per 9), but unlike Lucchesi he also allowed a few too many walks (3.7 per 9). Lauer uses a five pitch mix to try to keep hitters off balance. Last year that led to 8.6 strikeouts per 9, but a higher than league average contact rate against him implying that he gets a lot of called third strikes. It will be interesting to see how he develops and if the former first round pick can turn himself into more than a 4. Not that a 4 isn’t valuable, but the Padres are flush with that kind of pitcher at the major league level and they need someone to separate themselves from the pack.

The likely future ace of the team is pitching in the minors right now, but which prospects will be the one to rule them all? Will it be Chris Paddock who reached Double-A last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery? Paddock put up insane peripheral numbers – 120 strikeouts to 8 walks over 90 innings while allowing only 66 hits. There is almost no way he can continue to post numbers like that as he progresses to triple-A and then the majors, but if he maintains that kind of profile he could be a 1 or a 2 in the majors by 2020.  Paddock – a top 50 prospect – might make his MLB debut in 2019, but he has never pitched more than 90 innings in a single season in pro ball. Next year will tell us a lot about what he will eventually become as he throws more innings over more starts. He throws an excellent fastball that touches 97 and a superior changeup but lacks a viable third pitch. His meteoric rise could be slowed if the Padres are insistent on Paddock developing his curveball or some other third pitch. You shouldn’t expect much at the big league level until 2020, but nobody expected him to have the 2017 that he did so…

It probably won’t be Logan Allen, although he is the most likely rotation piece to start the season by debuting in the majors. Allen made 19 starts in Double-A and finished the season by carving up Triple-A over 5 starts with a 1.63 ERA and 26 K’s over 27.2 innings. He looks a lot like a couple of the starters already in the rotation, lacking a huge fastball, but with good control and the ability to pitch deep because of his efficiency. His ceiling is likely a 3.

Honestly, the most likely starter to become the eventual ace won’t arrive next year. Their number 2 prospect and a top 20 overall prospect is starter, Mackenzie Gore. Gore was the #3 overall pick of the 2017 draft and as you would expect from a recent high school graduate he was up and down. He reaches the mid-90s with his fastball and compliments it with a slider, a curveball, and a change, all of which he struggled to command due to blister problems that sent him to the DL multiple times in 2018. Gore spent most of the season in full-season A ball. Since he only got to just over 80 innings it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start there with the hope that he could stay healthy enough to reach Double-A in 2019. If all goes well, expect a debut in 2020 and perhaps he will buy a condo in the Gaslamp District for 2021 when he becomes a mainstay of the rotation and a potential ace.

Cal Quantrill is close in the sense that he finished the season at triple-A, but his results show that he isn’t ready. He has stuff without having consistent command of his fastball/slider/change repertoire and until he can find consistency he won’t even hang onto a rotation spot in San Diego where mid-rotation guys are plentiful. Quantrill was a 2016 first round pick out of Stanford and it was hoped that he would take the ace post in the rotation eventually. So far Quantrill hasn’t dominated like you might expect from a future ace, but he is only 23 and has only pitched two seasons since Tommy John surgery. If he figures it out in 2019 at Triple-A, then he could find himself in San Diego sometime before the season is over. If he could re-establish himself as a future ace, then the Padres would be sitting pretty with multiple young pitchers competing for the top spot in the rotation.

Adrian Morejon and Luis Patino are really young and equally talented. Morejon pitched almost all of 2018 at High-A and won’t turn 20 until the end of February. He struck out more than a batter an inning and showed solid control. Arm issues shortened his season so he will need time to master his breaking pitches and a return to High-A seems likely. If he can stay healthy, then Morejon could see Petco Park by 2021. He has ace upside and will give the other young starters a run for the top spot in the rotation assuming he doesn’t lose more development time due to arm issues. Luis Patino is even younger than Morejon, but just made 17 starts in full-season A ball and dominated on his way to breaking onto some top 100 prospect lists. It is hard to know what is ahead for a 19 year old, but when you can throw almost 100 MPH and exhibit control at such a young age, it is hard not to get excited about future ace potential. He has a long way to go to get to the majors and still needs to develop his off-speed pitches to compliment his fastball and slider.

One more young pitcher in the pipeline is 6’8” Michel Baez. Baez sits mid-90s with his fastball and showed solid control until his four start debut in double-A. He will likely start 2019 in double-A and has work to do on his slider, curveball and change as well as his fastball command before he debuts in San Diego. Pitchers of his size with control and big heat are rare and his ceiling is top of the rotation, but he has a ways to go before he contributes to a pennant race in San Diego.

Bullpens change so quickly that when examining the future of a team like the Padres, there is almost no reason to even talk about the relief pitchers currently on the team. One of the young starters might end up in the pen if they can’t figure out an off-speed pitch, or a young reliever could end up traded as the Padres have done in the past. For example, Kirby Yates, who eventually took on the closer role after Brad Hand was traded, will turn 32 during spring training. He dominated last year with almost 13 K’s per 9 and fewer than two and half walks per 9. He can’t be a free agent until 2021 and after the season he just had, it seems like he would be an obvious trade chip for a team still two years away from contending. Craig Stammen also was a beast in the pen, and he will turn 35 before opening day. He would certainly draw interest from other teams and probably won’t be around when the Padres are ready to contend for the NL West crown. So until the Padres can piece together a rotation and fill out the rest of their lineup convincingly there is really no reason to look at the pen very closely to see what it will look like moving forward as there is no obvious closer waiting in the wings, and the current closer is unlikely to be around when saves start to matter.

The best case scenario based on the development of Urias, Tatis Jr., their young outfield, and their virtual army of young starting pitching rapidly developing down on the farm is that the Padres seriously contend in 2021. It is possible that the Padres spend money to accelerate that estimate or trade some of their young talent to jump the line, but what is really needed now is some measure of patience and continued good drafts to make sure than when that window opens for the Padres they can stay contenders for a long time. The park is gorgeous and so is the farm system. That seems like a hot mix for perennial contenders in the wild, wild, West.

 

Author: elfuego25

When I'm not writing about baseball (or shoving kettle corn into my mouth at the ballpark), I am probably walking Daisy, who is a very good dog, researching my Portuguese-Irish roots, or wondering when my lovely wife will return from her latest fabulous trip. Yes, life is good!

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